How good has EE been and how good can he be?

[dougdirt]

This year Edwin, May not counting, may be the best third baseman in baseball not named Chipper Jones. His May was attrocious (.475 OPS), but outside of that one bad month he has absolutely obliterated the baseball.

Through his first 3 at bats today, he has put up this line not including May:

.306/.401/.611 with 30 walks and 31 strikeouts in 252 PA.
Of course you can't discount May, but for 3 of the 4 months so far this year the Reds have had arguably the second best hitting 3B in baseball.

Looking forward, just how good do you think Edwin could be?

Edit: Also wanted to note, outside of May he also has 30 walks and 31 strikeouts.

[nate]

I think his floor is league average.

His ceiling might be Mike Schmidt lite.

His mezzanine might be Ron Cey.

[RedsManRick]

Excluding May would be unfair. He's both the guy from May and the guy from July. But as you point out, that's still pretty darn good.

Among NL 3B with 200+ PA, EE is 5th in OPS (and RC27) behind Jones, Wright, Ramirez, and Glaus. Not too shabby.

FWIW, PECOTA's weighted mean projection for EE this year was .281/.352/.483. He's currently sitting at .266/.352/.503.

What's great about that line is that he's matching his OBP and 20 points ahead of his SLG projection while hitting 15 points below on the batting average. Any increase in his BA is likely to buoy his OBP and SLG even further. His Iso numbers are moving from good to great territory and that's very positive development from a 25 year old.

[nate]

Yep, he's also passed his HR career high with his 17th today. Maybe he sniffs 30 this year.

[mth123]

Jocketty named EE an untouchable. Perhaps he sees another step forward. The numbers in RMR's post above would imply the same. I admit that I've wanted the Reds to deal EE to acquire help elsewhere simply because I see alternatives on the way, but maybe that next step that EE appears poised to take fills the bill for the RH power bat the team seems to need.

[Ltlabner]

#  YEAR NAME           AGE  PA    EqA  OBP  SLG  VORP  RAR   RAP 
1. 2008 Chipper Jones  36   366  .365 .470 .607  55.5  52.6  40.1 
2. 2008 David Wright   25   445  .307 .384 .516  33.7  37.1  19.3 
3. 2008 Troy Glaus     31   403  .309 .380 .507  26.1  34.5  18.5 
4. 2008 Aramis Ramirez 30   394  .299 .378 .503  23.6  28.2  12.7 
5. 2008 E. Encarnacion 25   350  .289 .351 .493  16.9  22.2   7.7 
6. 2008 Jorge Cantu    26   409  .283 .337 .496  23.0  23.3   5.1

So you've got a 25 year old third baseman who's producing well above what a scrub/replacement guy (VORP and RAR) would give you. But he's getting paid like a scrub/replacement guy IIRC. At the very least he isn't earning anything near big dollars yet. Heck, he's not all that far off of what Aramis Ramirez has put up thus far and he certinally isn't earning Ramirez money.

Compared to his fellow third-sackers the runs he produces (Runs Above Position) is relativley low but Chipper is just plain sick and if I understand how RAP is calculated he might be squewing the results of everyone else.

But the bottom line is you've got an above average stick (who still has room for development & growth) at a below average price.

In my mind, the biggest thing holding EE back is EE and his propensity for slow starts. I think he puts waaayyyy to much pressure on himself instead of just doing his thing and once the pressing starts forget it.

[Big Klu]

Originally Posted by nate

I think his floor is league average.

His ceiling might be Mike Schmidt lite.

His mezzanine might be Ron Cey.

A year or two ago, I said Buddy Bell. I'll stick with that.

[*BaseClogger*]

Originally Posted by Big Klu

A year or two ago, I said Buddy Bell. I'll stick with that.

Interesting...

Year  Age   OPS+

EE
2005   22    93
2006   23    108
2007   24    101
2008   25    117

Bell
1974   22    95
1975   23    101
1976   24    106
1977   25    115
1978   26    103
1979   27    109
1980   28    142
1981   29    134
1982   30    126
1983   31    107
1984   32    129

Encarnacion Similar Batters

1. Jorge Cantu (961)
2. Ryan Zimmerman (958)
3. Gene Green (947)
4. Benny Agbayani (943)
5. B.J. Upton (942)
6. Chris Brown (940)
7. Kelly Johnson (939)
8. Ryan Church (939)
9. Mark Teahen (938)
10.Matt LeCroy (937)

[Big Klu]

Wow! That's closer than I thought! I had no statistical analysis for my prediction--it was just based on good old-fashioned observation.

[Rojo]

I think he's a fine left-fielder.

[princeton]

he's the kind of player that gets managers and GMs fired

[fearofpopvol1]

His errors/throws should not be overlooked amidst all this praise...

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

His errors/throws should not be overlooked amidst all this praise...

His defense is rough, but better than it has been. I still blame BP for Edwin's error today. If he covers the bag rather than walking toward 3B when Edwin plays the ball, Edwin doesn't double clutch his throw out of confusion of his 2B not covering 2B at all and there isn't any confusion.

[edabbs44]

He might be the long-term fill in for Dunn (i.e. 2 years from now) with Frazier taking his spot.

Or, Votto gets dealt and he plays first.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

He might be the long-term fill in for Dunn (i.e. 2 years from now) with Frazier taking his spot.

Or, Votto gets dealt and he plays first.

Or Votto could move to LF, but I like Votto at first.