|07-24-2008, 05:05 PM||#1|
Making sense of it all
Join Date: Jan 2004
Jocketty: No salary dump
Jocketty: There won't be a salary dump
Posted by JohnFay at 7/23/2008 8:25 PM EDT on Cincinnati.com
I just talked to Walt Jocketty about what Bronson Arroyo said after the game. Jocketty, as expected, would not say whether teams are asking about Arroyo. But he would say that trimming salary will not be reason behind any trade.
"I have not been instructed to dump salary," Jocketty said. "What we'll do is try to improve the club for this year and next."
That is not to say contract aren't a factor.
"Money is always a factor because you've got budget's to deal with," Jocketty said. "But when we sit down and project, a lot of things are taken into consideration."
Arroyo's comments were directed to CEO Bob Castillini. Castellini is hands-on owner, but he's not in on preliminary trade talks.
"i keep him up to date," Jocketty said. "If we have a deal, i'd take to him. That hasn't happened yet."
Trade activity is picking up.
"That's usually the case as deadline nears," Jocketty said.
I agree with the spirit of what Arroyo said. If the Reds got rid of him and got little in return, it would send a bad signal to the fans. But trading a high-priced veteran for a younger, cheaper player can make sense. If Arroyo could be part of deal that landed a young catcher or shortstop, the Reds would have to consider it.
|07-24-2008, 09:05 PM||#2|
Join Date: Sep 2001
Re: Jocketty: No salary dump
“Jocketty: There won't be a salary dump” doesn’t necessarily say much to benefit a Reds fan, the key words that Jocketty disclosed are here, “That is not to say contract aren't a factor.” "Money is always a factor because you've got budget's to deal with," Jocketty said. "But when we sit down and project, a lot of things are taken into consideration."
What we need to know is if there will be a talent dump, or talent increase from a team that is already light on and talent challenged to compete with Chicago, Milwaukee, and St. Louis.
Payroll can actually go up in 2009, which qualifies as no “salary dump”, while talent goes down or a status quo is maintained from a team with a long losing record.
If one sets aside our emotions, and our opinions and looks at the Reds RS RA and DIFF as a over simplified measure of talent effectiveness increase or decrease and win loss records from 2003 forward, one can see status quo being maintained under the Lindner, Reich, Strike group, and then later with the Castellini, Lindner, Reich, Strike group increasing the MLB player payroll by some of the smallest percentages in, 2006, 2007, 2008, which primarily covered increases to current players of that season. I estimated that Castellini percentage increases or decreases were -1.6% decrease, +11.6% increase, 7% increase, while the players union boast players salaries increased by about 9% in 06, and they expressed a belief that they would increase by a full 12% by the end of 2008.
If we left conservatism and took the liberal end of a 12 % increase to next years budget under Castellini and his group of conservative businessmen, we can see that Jocketty will be constrained or be compelled to manipulate some moves that free up some contractual liabilities for him to make changes to the roster that might, not necessarily, bring in an increase of talent that could positively change the RS RA DIFF in a positive manner for the 2009, 2010 Cincinnati Reds. I don’t know of any current Reds that will be taking a pay cut in 2009, if they indeed remain a Red.
If the number was 80 million with a 12 % increase that amounts to a $9,600,000 increase, next we ask ourselves what are the Reds needs, and how much will a $9,600,000 increase cover those needs, if the needs are relief pitchers, outfielders, catchers, shortstop etc. ? We don’t need any specifics to pull this one off, $9,600,000 / by positions needed = average amt to be spent per need.
Will that amount get you league average catchers, outfielders, shortstops, or relief pitchers or below league average?
Last edited by Spring~Fields; 07-24-2008 at 09:24 PM.