OBP - RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion

flyer85 · 08-15-2008, 02:45 PM

There has been plenty of talk about the 2009 catcher, SS, this and that.

Current OBPs
Keppinger 312
Bruce 310
Phiilips 318

The current Reds team is seriously OBP challenged. I don't care as much how the do it but it is a huge problem that needs to be fixed to move forward. Guys like Bruce and Phillips at this stage are 6-7 type hitters, not top of the order guys. Phillips will never be one although Bruce could develop into a 3-4-5 type hitter over time.

Cyclone792 · 08-15-2008, 02:52 PM

The Reds team OBP for the season, excluding Dunn and Griffey, is around .310 this year. Two things need to happen heading into 2009: current hitters who will be around next season must improve their OBP, and Walt needs to fill the team's holes with some guys who can post a solid OBP.

Otherwise, this offense will be a black hole of boredom and tears while the losses mount.

RedsManRick · 08-15-2008, 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flyer85

There has been plenty of talk about the 2009 catcher, SS, this and that.

Current OBPs
Keppinger 312
Bruce 310
Phiilips 318

The current Reds team is seriously OBP challenged. I don't care as much how the do it but it is a huge problem that needs to be fixed to move forward. Guys like Bruce and Phillips at this stage are 6-7 type hitters, not top of the order guys. Phillips will never be one although Bruce could develop into a 3-4-5 type hitter over time.

Agreed 100%. For all the talk about losing Dunn's 40 HRs, the loss of his OBP may be even more devastating. I think Phillips will always struggle with the OBP, but I expect Keppinger, Bruce, Votto, and EE all to produce .340+. That, combined with getting rid of the horrifically low OBP from Patterson and Bako would go a long ways.

top6 · 08-15-2008, 02:54 PM

Dunn's OBP was .371 his rookie year. Kearns's was .407. Just to compare Bruce to previous saviors.

flyer85 · 08-15-2008, 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by top6

Dunn's OBP was .371 his rookie year. Kearns's was .407. Just to compare Bruce to previous saviors.

Bruce is a different type hitter but his minor league numbers showed a tendency to hack which major league pitchers have taken full advantage of. For him to reach his potential a lot more plate discipline is needed ... but Dusty loves hackers.

BTW, Bruce's debut has certainly been much less impressive than Dunn/Kearns ... hmm.

I honestly don't think this organization values OBP much at all.

Cyclone792 · 08-15-2008, 02:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by top6

Dunn's OBP was .371 his rookie year. Kearns's was .407. Just to compare Bruce to previous saviors.

I'm not worried about Bruce's OBP this year, but people need to realize it has to go up ... otherwise his slugging will have a very low ceiling and people will be very disappointed. If he can boost his OBP, his SLG will explode. That's pretty much as safe a guarantee as you can get.

If you're OBP'ing .370, you have a decent chance to slug .550. If you're OBP'ing .340, you have almost no chance to slug .550. With extreme rare exception, guys who OBP low but slug high just don't exist.

top6 · 08-15-2008, 02:57 PM

I think I said this before, but the hiring of Dusty was not terrible only because Dusty is a bad manager. It was far more troubling because it was a symptom of major problems at the heart of the organization - and one of those problems is a complete failure to place the proper value on OBP.

So, yeah, I pretty much tried to turn this into a Dunn and Dusty thread. Because God knows Redzone needs more of those. But I do think Dunn and Dusty "clog the bases" Baker are the symbols of this team's failure to understand OBP.

top6 · 08-15-2008, 03:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cyclone792

I'm not worried about Bruce's OBP this year, but people need to realize it has to go up ... otherwise his slugging will have a very low ceiling and people will be very disappointed. If he can boost his OBP, his SLG will explode. That's pretty much as safe a guarantee as you can get.

If you're OBP'ing .370, you have a decent chance to slug .550. If you're OBP'ing .340, you have almost no chance to slug .550. With extreme rare exception, guys who OBP low but slug high just don't exist.

OK, just a little experiment to see how concerned we should be. Because I think OBP is something that is fairly predictable, and is something that we should be extremely concerned about with Bruce.

We obviously expect Bruce to be a star hitter. Here are the top 20 MLB hitters by OPS - the kind of hitter we expect Bruce to be - and their rookie year OBP. (I'm arbitrarily decreeing that the first year with 30+ games is their rookie year.)

Quote:

Chipper Jones - .353 (1995)
Albert Pujols - .403 (2001)
Lance Berkman - .321 (1999)
Milton Bradley - .288 (2000)
Matt Holliday - .349 (2004)
Alex Rodriguez - .264 (1995) (but it was .414 next year)
Ryan Ludwick - .299 (2003)
Manny Ramirez - .357 (1994)
Kevin Youkilis - .367 (2004)
Carlos Quentin - .342 (2006)
Xavier Nady - .321 (2003)
Chase Utley - .322 (2003)
Pat Burrell - .359 (2000)
Carlos Lee - .312 (1999)
Jermaine Dye - .304 (1996)
J.D. Drew - .340 (1999)
Brian McCann - .345 (2005)
Ryan Braun - .370 (2007)
Mark Teixeira - .331 (2003)
Josh Hamilton - .368 (2007)

So to the extent we can tell anything from this pointless exercise, and we can't really tell anything, it's that most star hitters have a decent OBP their rookie year, although a few (such as the ones in bold) don't. Obviously, it's not time to give up, but I think showing some concern Bruce's inability to get on base thus far is appropriate.

RedsManRick · 08-15-2008, 03:27 PM

With Bruce in particular, I think it's important to consider age here. Plate discipline is often a late developing skill and the guys is still extremely young. Yes, it needs to improve, but I have every confidence it will.

camisadelgolf · 08-15-2008, 03:32 PM

Look at the players who are (hopefully) gone after this year: Javier Valentin, Andy Phillips, Jolbert Cabrera, Jerry Hairston, Corey Patterson, Paul Bako, etc.

That should help quite a bit.

flyer85 · 08-15-2008, 03:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

Look at the players who are (hopefully) gone after this year: Javier Valentin, Andy Phillips, Jolbert Cabrera, Jerry Hairston, Corey Patterson, Paul Bako, etc.

That should help quite a bit.

not if the three guys named above are playing everyday and continue to bat 2-3-4. I don't mind if they want to play them everyday but they ought to be 5-6-7.

Rojo · 08-15-2008, 04:08 PM

Not putting it all at his feet, but Jacoby needs to go. There's no reason to throw these hitters anything close to the plate.

flyer85 · 08-15-2008, 04:11 PM

the entire staff needs to go. Let Jocketty bring in his own people, that's the way it is supposed to work.

When Castellini fired Krivsky he should have known he was signing up for an entirely new field staff for 2009.

OnBaseMachine · 08-15-2008, 04:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

With Bruce in particular, I think it's important to consider age here. Plate discipline is often a late developing skill and the guys is still extremely young. Yes, it needs to improve, but I have every confidence it will.

100% agreed.

Spring~Fields · 08-15-2008, 06:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

Agreed 100%. For all the talk about losing Dunn's 40 HRs, the loss of his OBP may be even more devastating. I think Phillips will always struggle with the OBP, but I expect Keppinger, Bruce, Votto, and EE all to produce .340+. That, combined with getting rid of the horrifically low OBP from Patterson and Bako would go a long ways.

Aren’t most of these below their career norms or three year stats?
I don’t understand how so many can go bad at the same time, any theories?

Code:

August
	         BA  	 OBP 		 SLG  OPS
J. Keppinger    .167 	.212 		.229 .441
B. Phillips     .184 	.245 		.429 .674
E. Encarnacion 	.156 	.255 		.311 .566
Jay Bruce 	.250 	.264 		.577 .841
Paul Bako 	.211 	.286 		.263 .549
C. Patterson 	.268 	.286 		.488 .774
Joey Votto 	.333 	.355 		.467 .822
Opponents 	.307 	.367 		.504 .871

July 
		 BA  	 OBP 		 SLG  OPS
C. Patterson 	.111 	.158 		.111 .269
J. Keppinger 	.206 	.238 		.258 .495
Paul Bako 	.196 	.260 		.217 .477
Jay Bruce 	.253 	.282 		.384 .665 
B. Phillips 	.278 	.330 		.402 .732
Joey Votto 	.261 	.337 		.352 .689
E. Encarnacion 	.291 	.367 		.620 .987
Opponents 	.277 	.342 		.445 .788

June
		  BA  	 OBP 		 SLG  OPS
C. Patterson 	.156 	.156 		.311 .467 
Paul Bako 	.151 	.224 		.283 .507 
Jay Bruce 	.223 	.274 		.340 .614 
B. Phillips 	.262 	.304 		.374 .678 
Joey Votto 	.257 	.315 		.386 .701 
J. Keppinger 	.296 	.406 		.370 .777 
E. Encarnacion 	.294 	.422 		.603 1.025 
Opponents 	.274 	.344 		.461 .805

June
		 BA  	 OBP 		 SLG  OPS
C. Patterson 	.180 	.180 		.197 .377
E. Encarnacion 	.172 	.228 		.247 .475
Paul Bako 	.186 	.262 		.305 .567
B. Phillips 	.292 	.342 		.557 .898
Joey Votto 	.281 	.385 		.528 .913
J. Keppinger 	.400 	.447 		.543 .990
Jay Bruce 	.579 	.680 		.895 1.575
Opponents 	.278 	.347 		.455 .802

Code:

Career
		 BA  	 OBP 		 SLG  OPS
J. Keppinger 	.289 	.343 		.400 .744
B. Phillips 	.264 	.309 		.428 .737
E. Encarnacion 	.266 	.344 		.457 .802
Joey Votto 	.287 	.348 		.466 .814
Javier Valentin	.252 	.309 		.402 .711
C. Patterson 	.254 	.293 		.409 .702
Hairston Jr.	.260 	.329 		.367 .696
Paul Bako 	.231 	.304 		.318 .622
Jay Bruce 	rookie

08-15-2008, 02:45 PM	#1
flyer85 He has the Evil Eye! Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: south of the border Posts: 23,858	OBP There has been plenty of talk about the 2009 catcher, SS, this and that. Current OBPs Keppinger 312 Bruce 310 Phiilips 318 The current Reds team is seriously OBP challenged. I don't care as much how the do it but it is a huge problem that needs to be fixed to move forward. Guys like Bruce and Phillips at this stage are 6-7 type hitters, not top of the order guys. Phillips will never be one although Bruce could develop into a 3-4-5 type hitter over time. __________________ What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

08-15-2008, 02:52 PM	#2
Cyclone792 Playoffs Join Date: May 2005 Location: Cincinnati, OH Posts: 6,233	Re: OBP The Reds team OBP for the season, excluding Dunn and Griffey, is around .310 this year. Two things need to happen heading into 2009: current hitters who will be around next season must improve their OBP, and Walt needs to fill the team's holes with some guys who can post a solid OBP. Otherwise, this offense will be a black hole of boredom and tears while the losses mount. __________________ *Barry Larkin - HOF, 2012* *Put an end to the Lost Decade.*

08-15-2008, 02:54 PM	#4
top6 Member Join Date: May 2000 Location: cincinnati Posts: 1,637	Re: OBP Dunn's OBP was .371 his rookie year. Kearns's was .407. Just to compare Bruce to previous saviors.

08-15-2008, 02:57 PM	#7
top6 Member Join Date: May 2000 Location: cincinnati Posts: 1,637	Re: OBP I think I said this before, but the hiring of Dusty was not terrible only because Dusty is a bad manager. It was far more troubling because it was a symptom of major problems at the heart of the organization - and one of those problems is a complete failure to place the proper value on OBP. So, yeah, I pretty much tried to turn this into a Dunn and Dusty thread. Because God knows Redzone needs more of those. But I do think Dunn and Dusty "clog the bases" Baker are the symbols of this team's failure to understand OBP.

08-15-2008, 03:27 PM	#9
RedsManRick Stat Wanker Hodiernus Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Chicago, IL Posts: 14,919	Re: OBP With Bruce in particular, I think it's important to consider age here. Plate discipline is often a late developing skill and the guys is still extremely young. Yes, it needs to improve, but I have every confidence it will. __________________ Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

08-15-2008, 03:32 PM	#10
camisadelgolf Vampire Weekend @Bernie's Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Cincinnati, OH Posts: 11,311	Re: OBP Look at the players who are (hopefully) gone after this year: Javier Valentin, Andy Phillips, Jolbert Cabrera, Jerry Hairston, Corey Patterson, Paul Bako, etc. That should help quite a bit.

08-15-2008, 04:08 PM	#12
Rojo Member Join Date: May 2000 Location: The Bush Leagues Posts: 8,423	Re: OBP Not putting it all at his feet, but Jacoby needs to go. There's no reason to throw these hitters anything close to the plate. __________________ The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

08-15-2008, 04:11 PM	#13
flyer85 He has the Evil Eye! Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: south of the border Posts: 23,858	Re: OBP the entire staff needs to go. Let Jocketty bring in his own people, that's the way it is supposed to work. When Castellini fired Krivsky he should have known he was signing up for an entirely new field staff for 2009. __________________ What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

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