Reds Top 25 Prospects- August Edition

[Benihana]

I wanted to wait until the August 15 deadline had passed to post the August Edition. So, without further ado...

GRADE A

1. Yonder Alonso, 21, 1B, A+
2. Todd Frazier, 22, 1B/3B/LF, A+
3. Daryl Thompson, 22, RHP, AAA

GRADE B

4. Neftali Soto, 19, 3B/LF, A
5. Drew Stubbs, 23, CF, AAA
6. Chris Valaika, 22, 2B, AA
7. Josh Roenicke, 25, RHP, AAA
8. Kyle Lotzkar, 19, RHP, A (injured)
9. Devin Mesoraco, 20, C, A
10. Juan Francisco, 21, 1B/RF/C??, A+
11. Zach Stewart, 21, RHP, A+

GRADE C

12. Zach Cozart, 22, SS, A
13. Travis Wood, 21, LHP, A+
14. Matt Maloney, 24, LHP, AAA
15. Shaun Cumberland, 23, OF, AAA
16. Daniel Dorn, 23, OF, AA
17. Sean Henry, 22, OF, AA
18. Justin Turner, 23, 2B, AA
19. Brandon Waring, 22, 3B, A
20. Dallas Buck, 23, RHP, A+

ON THE RADAR

21. Sam LeCure, 23, RHP, AA
22. Daniel Herrera, 23, LHP, AAA
23. Tyler Pelland, 23, LHP, AAA
24. Sean Watson, 23, RHP, AA
25. Pedro Viola, 24, LHP, AA

KEEP AN EYE ON (too early to rate)

Yorman Rodriguez 16 OF R
Juan Duran 16 OF R
Alex Oliveras 18 OF R
Evan Hildenbrant 19 RHP R
Alex Buchholz 21 2B R (injured)

OTHER NAMES TO KNOW (no longer prospect status, but don't forget about)

Homer Bailey 22, RHP AAA
Micah Owings 25, RHP/OF?? AAA
Carlos Fisher 25, RHP AAA
Ben Jukich 25, LHP AA
Robert Manuel 25, RHP AA
Danny Richar 25, 2B/SS AAA
Craig Tatum 25, C AAA

The guy to watch in the last couple weeks has been Drew Stubbs of course, who rocketed all the way up to AAA after an impressive month in Chattanooga. Perhaps helped by the hole on the major league team, Stubbs figures to get an invite to big league camp in the spring with a legitimate shot to make the team, possibly even as a starter or at least in a platoon situation with Chris Dickerson. Additionally, the signings of Alonso and Rodriguez, coupled with the Dunn and Griffey trades, have boosted both the overall talent level as well as the depth of the system. Alonso and Owings should both be significant parts of the major league team by the end of 2009, while Richar should be a nice utility guy off the bench. Rodriguez, much like Juan Duran, has an astronomically high ceiling but is also several years away from being a factor. He was heralded as one of the best outfielders ever to sign out of Venezuela, hopefully he lives up to even half of that billing. Ditto for Duran out of the Dominican. Finally, I mentioned this in another thread last week, but I'd really like to see the Reds try Juan Francisco behind the plate. Many impressive names at the big league level started out as infielders in the minors, including All-Stars Russell Martin and Geovany Soto, as well as former All-Star Terry Steinbach, who was moved behind the plate while Jocketty was the farm director. Francisco would be the perfect target for this project IMO, as he has a very strong arm, and a promising bat that needs significant time to develop (and hopefully gain some discipline.) Teach him the position in the Arizona Fall League, let him play all winter in the Dominican, and then start back up again in Sarasota next season. If he picks the position up well, he could be in Chattanooga by the break. Mesoraco should probably begin next year in Dayton again anyway, as all reports seem to imply that he needs some serious work on his defense (and his offense, while not terrible, was no great shakes there either.) Zach Stewart has been shooting up the charts as he shoots up the system and continues to dominate. Dallas Buck is an interesting guy to watch, as he had Grade A talent before getting injured, and hopefully comes back from TJ surgery more like Francisco Liriano than Brandon Claussen. If he does, he will rise fast up the list.

SEPTEMBER CALL-UPS

While minor league staples like Chris Dickerson, Adam Rosales, and Ryan Hanigan are already up with the big club, I would like to see the following guys up in the next two weeks, as they should be in strong consideration for a roster spot come next spring:

1. Josh Roenicke- should have been called up weeks ago. Will get called up especially if Affeldt and/or Weathers are traded.
2. Shaun Cumberland- with the departures of Dunn and Griffey, the outfield should be an open casting call. Give Cumberland, Dorn, Dickerson, and maybe even Stubbs (depending on how he finishes the Louisville season) a chance to prove they can handle a big league role.
3. Daniel Dorn- alternate starts in LF between him and Cumberland (realizing they're both lefties, it's not really a platoon.) While he can't hit lefties, he hits righties probably better than anyone in the entire system.
4. Daniel Herrera- he had a nice debut earlier in the summer. Let's see if he can maintain his success in the bigs.
5. Tyler Pelland- nothing left to prove in the minors, his time has come. Let's see who can win the battle between him and Herrera to be the other lefty in the pen alongside Bray next year (assuming Affeldt doesn't accept arbitration.)
6. Danny Richar- can he fill in at SS in the bigs? There's only one way to find out. The roster won't be big enough for him and Janish (and Rosales) next year, so let's see what we got for Griffey.

Thoughts?

[camisadelgolf]

Cool. I see that you have a few guys who may project to be MLB backups (Richar, Tatum), but there's no mention of Wilkin Castillo. What do you think of him?

[Benihana]

Castillo would probably be in the 25-30 range on the list, not because I like him all that much (I don't think he has shown any real ability to hit once he reaches the major league level) but because of his defense. I think he should see some time in Cincinnati next year, possibly in a platoon situation with Hanigan- unless the Reds can acquire another catcher in the offseason. I would say Castillo and Tatum are pretty comparable at this point, although I might give the slight edge to Castillo. Regardless, I'm not drooling over any of the three you mentioned.

[chicoruiz]

Good job- I might add Junior Arias to the "keep an eye on" list.

And how many of your potential September callups are actually on the 40-man? I'm thinking we might see someone like Belisle called up to eat lost-cause innings (of which there will be quite a few) just because he's on the 40-man.

[princeton]

Originally Posted by Benihana

The guy to watch in the last couple weeks has been Drew Stubbs of course

I'd say that the guy to watch in the last couple weeks has been Chris Dickerson

a couple of weeks back, I looked at the August schedule thought that it'd be a great time to bring up a young bat because the competition didn't look like much, and I think that has helped Dickerson, which is terrific. it's easier to realize one's full potential quickly if one has early success. It's not a bad time to bring up Danny Dorn, but Dorn doesn't have to go on the major league roster for more than a year so the Reds may pass

The competition actually looks tougher in September. Usually things like this are in reverse. September may be the tougher test for once.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by princeton

I'd say that the guy to watch in the last couple weeks has been Chris Dickerson

a couple of weeks back, I looked at the August schedule thought that it'd be a great time to bring up a young bat because the competition didn't look like much, and I think that has helped Dickerson, which is terrific. it's easier to realize one's full potential quickly if one has early success. It's not a bad time to bring up Danny Dorn, but Dorn doesn't have to go on the major league roster for more than a year so the Reds may pass

The competition actually looks tougher in September. Usually things like this are in reverse. September may be the tougher test for once.

100% agree. Plus there wasn't too much impressive about Stubbs in AA.

[ChatterRed]

I'm not that high on Stubbs.

After listening to the Louisville Bats announcer on Lance's show a week or so back, I believe the Reds are manipulating Roenicke's numbers to make him look good as trade bait. The announcer (can't remember his name, but he has been up with the Reds and done a few games) said the Bats haven't put Roenicke in any games with men already on base. He only comes in at the beginning of an inning. He also said he gets by alot on his fastball, which we all know doesn't fly in the majors as well (Ask Homer Bailey). Needs a better complimentary pitch. Basically said he felt the Reds/Bats have been protecting him and that his numbers look better because of it. I thought it was interesting because I had the same desire to see him with the big league club until I heard this interview.

[HokieRed]

If he's being used as a closer, being brought in at the beginning of innings is precisely the way he should be used.

[mace]

In the "eye on" category, I'd add:

David Sappelt, OF, Billings
Tony Brown, OF, Billings
Mace Thurman, RP, Day
Chris Heisey, OF, Chatt
Shea Snowden, SP, GCL
Scott Carroll, SP, Sar
Jeremy Horst, SP, Day
Aguido Gonzalez, RP, Day
Ramon Geronimo, RP, Chatt

I would include Jordan Smith but couldn't find him on a roster. Anybody know the reason for that?

Anybody ever find out why Snowden is suspended?

I have a feeling that Heisey might be the most underrated player in the system, or close to it.

[ChatterRed]

Originally Posted by HokieRed

If he's being used as a closer, being brought in at the beginning of innings is precisely the way he should be used.

You had to hear the interview. When asked by Lance if Roenicke was ready for the Big Leagues, the announcer didn't think so. He specifically said he felt the Reds/Bats were protecting Roenicke for some reason.........

Just saying what I heard. It changed my mind about the kid. Doesn't sound ready.

[ChatterRed]

Originally Posted by mace

In the "eye on" category, I'd add:

David Sappelt, OF, Billings
Tony Brown, OF, Billings
Mace Thurman, RP, Day
Chris Heisey, OF, Chatt
Shea Snowden, SP, GCL
Scott Carroll, SP, Sar
Jeremy Horst, SP, Day
Aguido Gonzalez, RP, Day
Ramon Geronimo, RP, Chatt

I would include Jordan Smith but couldn't find him on a roster. Anybody know the reason for that?

Anybody ever find out why Snowden is suspended?

I have a feeling that Heisey might be the most underrated player in the system, or close to it.

I agree. Especially on Thurman, Gonzalez, Snowden and Geronimo.

[RedlegJake]

Good list overall. Personally I'd lift Sean Henry to a B, I think he's going to be better than Cumberland and better with a bat than Stubbs or Valaika for that matter. IF Sean can handle CF in the majors (I think he can) he's a very, very good prospect. If he is considered only a corner outfielder then his stars dims to a really good 4th OFer. He has played CF but Cumberland, Stubbs and Heisey have kept him in the corner more than center to this point. So - Doug, OBM, anyone who has seen him in person - CAN Sean play CF regularly? Has his role mostly in LF been because of Stubbs and Cumberland and now Heisey or is it because he lacks the arm for CF? I know he has speed so I have to wonder about his arm.

[lollipopcurve]

I can't believe Heisey has been omitted from all lists intentionally. He's easily grade B.

Daryl Thompson, with his shoulder issues re-emerging, is far from grade A, in my opinion.

[RedlegJake]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

I can't believe Heisey has been omitted from all lists intentionally. He's easily grade B.

Daryl Thompson, with his shoulder issues re-emerging, is far from grade A, in my opinion.

I have to agree. Health pushes Darryl down a notch.

[OnBaseMachine]

Sorry Jake, I've never seen Henry play in person so I can't really answer your question.

As for Roenicke, he's still fairly new at pitching so his secondary pitches are still raw. Baseball America says Roenicke throws a nasty cutter in addition to his fastball so that's probably why many think he relies only on his fastball right now. There was an article a while back that said he's been working on a breaking ball and it seemed to be getting better. I'd like to see him in the majors after the AAA playoffs. I watched him pitch on TV in spring training and came away very impressed. The more he pitches the better he will become IMO due to his lack of experience on the mound.