2008 Hurricane Season

[RFS62]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

Hopefully it misses you guys. If it holds the current path it will cross into the Gulf and hit around Mississippi.

[OnBaseMachine]

Sorry, I should have clarified it better. After it hits Florida it appears it may head into the Gulf towards Mississippi. I'm not too familiar with the area, is Coral Springs around Miami?

[RFS62]

Yes, I'm about 6 miles west of Ft. Lauderdale

[Reds Fanatic]

Here is the latest on Ike forecast to hit Florida as a category 3 on Tuesday afternoon.

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by RFS62

Yes, I'm about 6 miles west of Ft. Lauderdale

You planning on evacuating? IIRC you're a former West Virginian right? You're welcome to join us again, we're safe from Hurricanes up here.

[RFS62]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

You planning on evacuating? IIRC you're a former West Virginian right? You're welcome to join us again, we're safe from Hurricanes up here.

Yes, I'm originally from West Virginia. I'll be staying here through the hurricane. Puffy is driving down and we're going to lash ourselves to the antennae on top of the Diplomat hotel and ride it out like Captain Dan in Forrest Gump.

[OnBaseMachine]

You guys stay safe. Hopefully the storm will veer to the right and miss ya.

[oneupper]

Consensus Track has been moved south. Models however are very disperse.

[OnBaseMachine]

It is also possible that the trough of low pressure will not be strong enough to turn Ike to the north, and that the storm will enter the Gulf of Mexico. A second trough of low pressure would then turn Ike north, resulting in a n eventual landfall on the Gulf Coast between the Florida Panhandle and Texas. This is the forecast of the ECMWF and GFS models. My current thinking is along these lines:

20% chance Ike will hit the east coast of Florida.
30% chance Ike will hit the Florida Keys.
30% chance Ike will hit Cuba. If this happens, there is 30% chance it would miss Florida and head into the Gulf of Mexico.
10% chance that Ike will miss Florida, but hit further north along the U.S. coast.
10% chance Ike will curve north out to sea and not hit the U.S.

Overall, I'd give the Gulf Coast a 70% chance of getting hit (including the west coast of Florida).

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

[cumberlandreds]

The DC area has tropical wind warnings issued for tonight and tomorrow. Also 4+ inches of rain from the remnants of Hanna. That's enough for me,thank you.

[Reds Fanatic]

Latest track looks like Ike may shoot right past Florida and into the gulf. Though it is close enough that Florida could still be hit by Ike or feel the effects from the storm.

[OnBaseMachine]

The new path from the NHC has Ike moving between Cuba and Florida and moving into the Gulf of Mexico next week. If it were to hold it's current path it would hit around Mississippi... a slight jog to the left would bring more trouble for New Orleans, though it's still a long way off and the path could change.

[paintmered]

If this storm hits the gulf, we may see it turn into a Cat 5.

[oneupper]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

The new path from the NHC has Ike moving between Cuba and Florida and moving into the Gulf of Mexico next week. If it were to hold it's current path it would hit around Mississippi... a slight jog to the left would bring more trouble for New Orleans, though it's still a long way off and the path could change.

Since you seem to know about this stuff, my mother (78 today) tells me that the "British Model" is one that seems to be quite accurate. Do you know which one that is?

BTW....big lines for water/supplies in Sam's in S.Florida today...just in case.

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by oneupper

Since you seem to know about this stuff, my mother (78 today) tells me that the "British Model" is one that seems to be quite accurate. Do you know which one that is?

BTW....big lines for water/supplies in Sam's in S.Florida today...just in case.

To tell you the truth, I've never heard of the British Model. I really don't know too much about this stuff other than what I read on the NHC website.