Bold prediction: Brandon Phillips has played his last game as a Red - Page 3 - RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion

dougdirt · 09-10-2008, 01:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hoosier Red

Well that's certainly not insignificant.
To further the idea, what would an average SS save the Reds over Keppinger/Hairston? What would a very good SS save the Reds over Kepp/Hairston?

This may tie back into my theory from yesterday with replacing the suck players with average players.

An average glove is worth about 1 more win than Keppinger/Hairston at SS. A good one is likely 2-2.5 wins more than Keppinger/Hairston at SS.

Chip R · 09-10-2008, 01:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hoosier Red

How important is defense at 2b? It seems as though it's the least important of the IF positions.

The 2nd baseman has to cover more ground than the SS does. He's basically got all the way from the 2nd base bag to about 5 feet from the 1st base bag. Most 1st basemen aren't exactly the mobile type and aren't likely to range very far to their right for ground balls - especially when there's a runner on base. They also have to make the pivot on the double play. I don't know if it's more important than SS but a case could be made to have the best defender on that side of the bag. I'd certainly say it's more important to have a good defender there than it is at 3rd or 1st.

RedsManRick · 09-10-2008, 01:27 PM

I'm surprised this hasn't come up much, but here's Brandon Phillips since the ASB:

.225/.291/.374. That's been our #3/#4 hitter.

dougdirt · 09-10-2008, 01:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

I'm surprised this hasn't come up much, but here's Brandon Phillips since the ASB:

.225/.291/.374. That's been our #3/#4 hitter.

Yeah, but he swings at the first pitch.

LoganBuck · 09-10-2008, 01:34 PM

My current disdain for Phillips is because he is miscast. I am kind of glad that he is out for the rest of the year, so Dusty can see how other players would do. We need to track runs scored from this point forward.

Also it breaks up the Keppinger-Phillips batting order fun.

RedsManRick · 09-10-2008, 01:34 PM

Phillips plays great defense, but he's a right handed Jacque Jones with a bat in his hands. Sure, he's much more valuable given that he's a defense asset at 2B instead of in the OF. But his offense is no more productive. I can't understand for the life of me why this distinction seems so hard for people to make.

dougdirt · 09-10-2008, 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

Phillips plays great defense, but he's a right handed Jacque Jones with a bat in his hands. Sure, he's much more valuable given that he's a defense asset at 2B instead of in the OF. But his offense is no more productive. I can't understand for the life of me why this distinction seems so hard for people to make.

They listen to Marty too much.

Screwball · 09-10-2008, 01:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dougdirt

They listen to Marty too much.

Not to mention Brantley, who's stated more times than I can count that Phillips is now easily our best offensive player.

mbgrayson · 09-10-2008, 02:54 PM

I went over to the Baseball Prospectus web site stat area, and I ran a custom report of all MLB second basemen with at least 100 plate appearances in 2008. Of the top 2nd basemen in VORP (value over replacement player), Brandon Phillips finished 17th in MLB with a VORP of 16.

Running the same check for 2007, Brandon Phillips finished 6th out of all second basemen with a VORP of 37.2.

VORP- Value Over Replacement Player. The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player's defense.

Clearly Phillips hitting is down this year. Can he make adjustments? Can he get back to last year's level? I don't know, but it seems to me that despite the favorable salary figures for the next two years, if we trade him now we may be 'selling low'.

Can he still win the gold glove this year? If so, that may enhance his trade value. I would also have to be 'blown away' to want to see him traded.

RedlegJake · 09-10-2008, 03:27 PM

Trading is all about making the right move - AT THE RIGHT TIME. Now BP brings back a good return - after next season he suddenly looks a whole lot less like a value and after 2010 he is likely untradeable if he suffers any decline whatsoever. I'm not arguing against his value as a player but his value in years 3 & 4 and whether it's worth it to hang on to him or have to give him away in a couple years or pay part of his salary to induce a team to trade for him. If BP was a key to a actual pennant run in 2009 I'd say keep him but fact is, with him or without him the Reds aren't likely to be true contenders in '09. The Reds have been terrible about holding on to guys too long when they should have dealt them. I'm 100% for dealing BP. Now is the right time and I am not knockinghis defense, his bat or his value to the club - but this is the window to get the greatest return. Rickey said always trade a guy a year too soon than a year too late. It's as true now as then. Probably more so, because of the monies involved.

RedsManRick · 09-10-2008, 03:39 PM

FWIW, judging by the average annual value of existing contracts, Phillips is the 6th highest paid 2B in baseball. After Kent & Durham's contracts expire and Hudson signs a FA deal, it's likely Phillips will be 5th next year.

By the time 2011 and 2012 roll around, it's quite likely Phillips will be behind only Chase Utley, Brian Roberts, maybe Orlando Hudson, and Robbie Cano if the Yankees exercise a team option.

REDREAD · 09-10-2008, 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MWM

I'm all for shopping him, but it would take a lot for me to pat with him. I think he's definitely a plus player. He does just about everthing well but take walks. He's fast, has some pop, and plays superb defense. I wouldn't undersell his defense. I would feel differently if he had a huge contract, but he doesn't. He's set to make $11.5MM over the next two seasons. He's the type of guy you keep.

Exactly. We should be trying to acquire more guys like Phillips, not dump them.

It's not Phillips fault that he has been forced to be the primary run producer. Get more bats and then push him down.

Putting Keppinger or someone like that at 2b would be a huge downgrade.

I'm not saying Phillips is untouchable, nobody is to me. But we darn well better get a great return for him.

GAC · 09-10-2008, 07:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Will M

We have oodles of players whose best position is 2B - Kep, Richar, Valaika. Rosales could play here. Heck we could even bring back Hairston.

Oodles may be able to play it (hold their own); but very few of them would excel like BP. The above wouldn't even come close IMO.

And remember also.... Walt craves defense too.

*BaseClogger* · 09-10-2008, 08:07 PM

The way I see it is 2B is about as close as it gets to a strength on this team. We have several players who I think can come within about 1 to 1.5 wins in value to BP, but at a much lower cost. I figure the return for BP would most likely be an upgrade of more than 1 to 1.5 wins at one of the weak spots (C, SS, LF), so I would trade him...

*BaseClogger* · 09-10-2008, 08:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GAC

Oddles may be able to play it (hold their own); but very few of them would excel like BP. The above wouldn't even come close IMO.

And remember also.... Walt craves defense too.

Maybe a glove who can play LF or SS would be a part of the return?

09-10-2008, 01:27 PM	#33
RedsManRick Stat Wanker Hodiernus Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Chicago, IL Posts: 14,919	Re: Bold prediction: Brandon Phillips has played his last game as a Red I'm surprised this hasn't come up much, but here's Brandon Phillips since the ASB: .225/.291/.374. That's been our #3/#4 hitter. __________________ Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

09-10-2008, 01:34 PM	#35
LoganBuck I hate the Cubs Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 5,584	Re: Bold prediction: Brandon Phillips has played his last game as a Red My current disdain for Phillips is because he is miscast. I am kind of glad that he is out for the rest of the year, so Dusty can see how other players would do. We need to track runs scored from this point forward. Also it breaks up the Keppinger-Phillips batting order fun. __________________ Whenever you get mad over a called strike or ball on a close pitch, it's the equivalent of being mad at the QB pump-faking one time before throwing a pass in your average NFL game. ---Caveat Emperor

09-10-2008, 01:34 PM	#36
RedsManRick Stat Wanker Hodiernus Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Chicago, IL Posts: 14,919	Re: Bold prediction: Brandon Phillips has played his last game as a Red Phillips plays great defense, but he's a right handed Jacque Jones with a bat in his hands. Sure, he's much more valuable given that he's a defense asset at 2B instead of in the OF. But his offense is no more productive. I can't understand for the life of me why this distinction seems so hard for people to make. __________________ Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

09-10-2008, 02:54 PM	#39
mbgrayson Red's fan Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Montana Posts: 1,933	Re: Bold prediction: Brandon Phillips has played his last game as a Red I went over to the Baseball Prospectus web site stat area, and I ran a custom report of all MLB second basemen with at least 100 plate appearances in 2008. Of the top 2nd basemen in VORP (value over replacement player), Brandon Phillips finished 17th in MLB with a VORP of 16. Running the same check for 2007, Brandon Phillips finished 6th out of all second basemen with a VORP of 37.2. VORP- Value Over Replacement Player. The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player's defense. Clearly Phillips hitting is down this year. Can he make adjustments? Can he get back to last year's level? I don't know, but it seems to me that despite the favorable salary figures for the next two years, if we trade him now we may be 'selling low'. Can he still win the gold glove this year? If so, that may enhance his trade value. I would also have to be 'blown away' to want to see him traded. __________________ __________________ "I genuinely like this team. I like the vibe and spirit of this team. This is just the beginning." Dusty on 2/19/12.

09-10-2008, 03:27 PM	#40
RedlegJake Member Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: North Kansas City, Mo Posts: 3,856	Re: Bold prediction: Brandon Phillips has played his last game as a Red Trading is all about making the right move - AT THE RIGHT TIME. Now BP brings back a good return - after next season he suddenly looks a whole lot less like a value and after 2010 he is likely untradeable if he suffers any decline whatsoever. I'm not arguing against his value as a player but his value in years 3 & 4 and whether it's worth it to hang on to him or have to give him away in a couple years or pay part of his salary to induce a team to trade for him. If BP was a key to a actual pennant run in 2009 I'd say keep him but fact is, with him or without him the Reds aren't likely to be true contenders in '09. The Reds have been terrible about holding on to guys too long when they should have dealt them. I'm 100% for dealing BP. Now is the right time and I am not knockinghis defense, his bat or his value to the club - but this is the window to get the greatest return. Rickey said always trade a guy a year too soon than a year too late. It's as true now as then. Probably more so, because of the monies involved.

09-10-2008, 03:39 PM	#41
RedsManRick Stat Wanker Hodiernus Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Chicago, IL Posts: 14,919	Re: Bold prediction: Brandon Phillips has played his last game as a Red FWIW, judging by the average annual value of existing contracts, Phillips is the 6th highest paid 2B in baseball. After Kent & Durham's contracts expire and Hudson signs a FA deal, it's likely Phillips will be 5th next year. By the time 2011 and 2012 roll around, it's quite likely Phillips will be behind only Chase Utley, Brian Roberts, maybe Orlando Hudson, and Robbie Cano if the Yankees exercise a team option. __________________ Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

09-10-2008, 08:07 PM	#44
BaseClogger WOOOOO!!! Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: Midland, MI Posts: 6,077	Re: Bold prediction: Brandon Phillips has played his last game as a Red The way I see it is 2B is about as close as it gets to a strength on this team. We have several players who I think can come within about 1 to 1.5 wins in value to BP, but at a much lower cost. I figure the return for BP would most likely be an upgrade of more than 1 to 1.5 wins at one of the weak spots (C, SS, LF), so I would trade him... __________________ "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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