RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion Expected Win-Loss Records

 09-17-2008, 02:05 PM #1 shredda2000 A Lost Ball In High Weeds     Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Dunbar, WV Posts: 630 Expected Win-Loss Records I was looking at the current standings, wildcards, etc. and stumbled across this stat: X W-L (Expected Win-Loss Records). The formula is this: XW-L - Expected won-loss record based on runs scored and runs allowed, using this formula: RS^1.82/((RS^1.82)+(RA^1.82)) It looks like this method predicts at least one (middle of the pack) team with their exact Win-Loss record. Most other teams are pretty close to their X W-L (of course, the Reds are playing ABOVE their X W-L, as is the case in most categories). Therefore, if the Runs Scored and Runs Allowed can be predicted, this formula could be used to predict the Win-Loss records for an upcoming year. Does anyone see any validity in this formula? Does anyone use this formula to predict the Reds Win-Loss record during the beginning year prediction thread? Just wondering... __________________ "I don't want to embarrass any other catcher by comparing him to Johnny Bench." Sparky Anderson
 09-17-2008, 03:35 PM #2 freestyle55 Member   Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Hamilton, OH Posts: 398 Re: Expected Win-Loss Records Didn't the Diamondbacks have a fluke year last year where they were waaaaayyy over what the expected record should have been based on RA/RS...? It's a tool to guesstimate, but I don't know how accurate...
 09-17-2008, 03:53 PM #3 shredda2000 A Lost Ball In High Weeds     Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Dunbar, WV Posts: 630 Re: Expected Win-Loss Records [QUOTE=freestyle55;1740945]Didn't the Diamondbacks have a fluke year last year where they were waaaaayyy over what the expected record should have been based on RA/RS...? /QUOTE] You are correct...the D-Backs were expected to go 89-73 and instead they went 90-72 __________________ "I don't want to embarrass any other catcher by comparing him to Johnny Bench." Sparky Anderson
 09-17-2008, 04:24 PM #4 redsbuckeye Next Year     Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Loveland Posts: 436 Re: Expected Win-Loss Records It's a valuable tool for predictive purposes. Sure it's off on occaision, but when it's off it helps to tell you who's been lucky, who hasn't been lucky, and when luck hasn't played much of a factor. __________________ Required Reading
09-17-2008, 04:34 PM   #5
freestyle55
Member

Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Hamilton, OH
Posts: 398
Re: Expected Win-Loss Records

[quote=shredda2000;1740954]
Quote:
 Originally Posted by freestyle55 Didn't the Diamondbacks have a fluke year last year where they were waaaaayyy over what the expected record should have been based on RA/RS...? /QUOTE] You are correct...the D-Backs were expected to go 89-73 and instead they went 90-72
I think you mean 79-83...

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