Baseball America on Yonder Alonso

[OnBaseMachine]

John Manuel on Yonder Alonso:

Q: Daniel from NYC asks: from NYC asks:
With the plate discipline that Yonder Alonso has shown will he be the best overall hitter ( Power/ average) to emerge from this draft class?

A: John Manuel: He could be; I don' think he has the combination of hitting for average and power that Alvarez, Smoak and, say, Eric Hosmer have, but he walked twice as much as he struck out at Miami the last 2 years, and still managed to hit 20-plus bombs this season. He's short to the ball, keeps the bat through the zone a long time and has a nice, high finish. He's going to hit, I think the Q is how many home runs. .300-.400.-.550 seems like it's possible for him to achieve fairly consistently.

And on the Reds draft:

Q: Brandon from Charleston asks:
What are your thoughts on the Reds draft?

A: John Manuel: Mixed. I like Alonso, but would prefer Gordon Beckham or Smoak there. I like Carter Morrison and Alex Buchholz, but I'm not sure there's another potential everyday regular after Alonso, the kind of thing that would make it a great draft. I like Sulberan and Zach Stewart and some of the athletes there, but the depth of pitching in the class seems a bit thin here at the outset.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/onlin...08103101&rnd=6

[OnBaseMachine]

Those numbers would make Alonso one of the top 10-12 hitters in all of baseball and a perennial MVP candidate.

As for the rest of the draft, how many drafts produce more than one everyday starter? Not too many. Besides, Buchholz looks like he could be an offensive minded second baseman and Carter Morrison is a big kid with a lot of projection. He's my sleeper in this draft. On the pitching side, Stewart looks like a potential dominant bullpen arm and Sulbaran has the stuff to be a great starter. On the surface this looks like a very good draft considering the Reds didn't have a second round pick.

[Redman15]

Q: Brandon from Charleston asks:
What are your thoughts on the Reds draft?

A: John Manuel: Mixed. I like Alonso, but would prefer Gordon Beckham or Smoak there. I like Carter Morrison and Alex Buchholz, but I'm not sure there's another potential everyday regular after Alonso, the kind of thing that would make it a great draft. I like Sulberan and Zach Stewart and some of the athletes there, but the depth of pitching in the class seems a bit thin here at the outset.

Justin Smoak is playing for the Peoria Javelinas in the AFL with the Reds players.
He must be on loan or something because today is only his 2nd game with them.

[redsfandan]

i remember at the time i didn't understand why the reds would take alonso over smoak.

[RedsManRick]

Players who .300/.400/.550 in 2008:

Chipper Jones: .364/.470/.574
Albert Pujols: .357/.462/.653
Manny Ramirez: .332/.430/.601
Milton Bradley: .321/.436/.563
Lance Berkman: .312/.420/.567

[RedEye]

I don't understand. If Alonso is going to go .300/.400/.550 and Manuel hesitates to say that he is better than Smoak and Hosmer... does that mean he is saying that Smoak/Hosmer will likely top those numbers? That's one heck of a draft for the 1B position!

[HokieRed]

I've not seen Smoak hit, but I did watch Alonso all through the playoff series and I really like the choice. I'd just add to the scouting description above his tremendous balance and self-contained maturity at the plate. If Beckham cannot play SS, then Alonso is, IMHO, the vastly better choice. This draft has the potential to be really outstanding, with Stewart, Buchholz, Sulbaran, and Fairlie along with some other guys who showed really well out of the gate like Sappelt or the lefty reliever from Baylor (sorry I'm having a senior moment on his name).

[RED VAN HOT]

The doubts expressed sum it up nicely. I still come back to the question: Will Alonso turn out to be the next Sean Casey? Passing up Beckham at that spot bothered me more than passing up Lincecum two years earlier.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by redsfandan

i remember at the time i didn't understand why the reds would take alonso over smoak.

I think it comes down to better contact ability bye Alonso, whereas Smoak has more raw power. In the end I expect due to those points both should slug similiarly while Alonso should be more consistent.

I'd say it will be more like .300/.425/.500 with Smoak looking more like .280/.370/.525.

[HokieRed]

I don't see the same doubts in Manuel's comments. Casey only OPS'd over .900 three times in his career and if Alonso can make those numbers, then I say fine. But the projection of a consistent .950 for Alonso doesn't suggest any realistic comparison to Casey; it suggest somebody a whole h--- of a lot more productive than Sean ever was. Besides there's a certain ridiculous element in Manuel's comments. If he thinks Alonso puts up a consistent .950, how does he justify preferring Beckham? If Alonso, IMHO, puts up .950 consistently, nobody's going to say five years from now that we should have taken Gordon Beckham.

[RED VAN HOT]

Originally Posted by HokieRed

I don't see the same doubts in Manuel's comments. Casey only OPS'd over .900 three times in his career and if Alonso can make those numbers, then I say fine. But the projection of a consistent .950 for Alonso doesn't suggest any realistic comparison to Casey; it suggest somebody a whole h--- of a lot more productive than Sean ever was. Besides there's a certain ridiculous element in Manuel's comments. If he thinks Alonso puts up a consistent .950, how does he justify preferring Beckham? If Alonso, IMHO, puts up .950 consistently, nobody's going to say five years from now that we should have taken Gordon Beckham.

OK. I interpreted Manuel's comments as expressing doubt about HR production. I interpreted a consistent .950 to be achievable if the HR production is there. If at draft time I believed Alonso would put up Casey numbers, and I already had Votto on first base, I would have opted for GB, a strong RH hitter able to move down the position ladder. I think the Reds foresaw more power than Casey when they drafted him. I hope they are right.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by RED VAN HOT

OK. I interpreted Manuel's comments as expressing doubt about HR production. I interpreted a consistent .950 to be achievable if the HR production is there. If at draft time I believed Alonso would put up Casey numbers, and I already had Votto on first base, I would have opted for GB, a strong RH hitter able to move down the position ladder. I think the Reds foresaw more power than Casey when they drafted him. I hope they are right.

The question is what does "Sean Casey" numbers mean? If you mean 1999 (.332/.399/.539, 25 HR), 2000 (.315/.385/.517, 20 HR), or 2004 (.324/.381/.534, 24 HR), then that's a very solid bat worthy of being a top 10 pick.

If Alonso turns in to a bat along the lines of Casey in his better years, or perhaps Jason Bay or JD Drew, that's hard to be disappointed with.

At that point, it becomes splitting hairs. If you're at the major league level and looking at established players, it's pretty easy to say you'd rather have Mark Teixeira over Jason Bay. But when there are years of development ahead and a great deal of uncertainty over what kind of player the guy ultimately becomes, it's a more complicated decision than just picking comps.