Re: Dont play poker with David Weathers
Originally Posted by texasdave
David Weathers is an anomaly. He is an outlier. When it comes to Stormy you can (heretical statement to follow) throw out the stat sheet. According to the stats in Hardball Times his xFIP is 4.61 since joining Cincinnati in 2005. Over those same 298 1/3 IP his ERA is a full run lower at 3.59. In almost 300 IP that amounts to a lot of luck. And let me stress, once again, that is nearly three hundred innings of pitching. Hardly a small sample size. What about inherited runners you say? Adding up all 16 National League teams, using the numbers in Baseball Prospectus, there were 3,714 inherited runners of which 1,120 scored in 2008. In other words 30.2% of inherited NL runners scored in 2008. I would imagine that number stays fairly constant from year to year. How does Stormy do with regards to inherited runners? Here is a chart:
Year IR IS Pct
2005 15 2 13.3%
2006 27 8 29.6%
2007 19 5 26.3%
2008 30 6 20.0%
Total 91 21 23.1%
In no year has he surpassed that 30.2% 'average'. And for all four years combined he is well under it.
I understand the importance of a reliever being able to strike batters out. In a perfect world the Reds' roster would be overflowing with such relievers. But this isn't a perfect world. And the value of a David Weathers should not be overlooked nor dismissed because he happens to be that round peg that somehow fits into the square hole
I understand what you are saying about weathers, I just don't feel like he is the best way to allocate the scarce spare cash that the reds have this offseason. There are cheaper alternatives that could produce the same results IMO. As for the bolded statement, I am not taking away from his success in the past, I am just saying that eventually the "luck" will run out on weathers if he is the same pitcher next year as he was this year. There is no guarantee either way, but the odds suggest if weathers doesn't make a change his numbers will take a turn for the worse.
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