Traded

[redsof72]

I have heard that Buchholz looked decent at shortstop in instructional league but they will have to sort that out in spring training. You also have Tyler Stovall and Byron Wiley as outfielders. On the mound, I would expect Astorga and Shunick to be there. Maybe Linebaugh and Beal. They've got some competition there. I would expect Del Rosario to be in Sarasota. I agree that Arneson and Guerrero could be releases. They might hold onto Rafael as an organizational guy who can flip-flop among teams wherever there is a need--that's his only value but you do need a couple of guys like that. They will probably give Ravin one more year but I could see him starting in extended.

You are right, they probably will have Mesoraco in Sarasota but as I have said before, I think the best thing for him would be to spend the first half back in Dayton.

That jump from Billings to Dayton is one of the most interesting in the system because you can have a guy doing well in the Pioneer League with marginal talent and he gets to a full-season league and even though he looked good on paper, those marginal skills are not enough against better players. A guy like a Konstanty possibly may fall into that.

[New Fever]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

I was actually thinking Puckett would be at short with Buchholz at second. You would know better than me, though. This is what I was expecting in Dayton:

C Jordan Wideman
1B Mike Konstanty
2B Alex Buchholz
3B Carlos Mendez
SS Cody Puckett
LF Tony Brown
CF Dave Sappelt
RF Alex Oliveras
C Todd Waller (if he isn't released--otherwise, I'd expect Kyle Day to fill in with Chris McMurray coming in)
IF Jose Gualdron
IF Darrick Hale
OF Brandon Menchaca
C/OF Kyle Day

SP Kyle Lotzkar (coming off arm surgery)
SP Shea Snowden
SP Evan Hildenbrandt
SP Drew Bowman
SP Curtis Partch
CL Scott Gaffney (coming off arm surgery)
RP Aguido Gonzalez
RP Mace Thurman
RP Brandon Rice
RP Derrick Conatser

I expect one of the following to be cut before the start of the regular season, but here is who I expect to see as the candidates for long relief or emergency starting:
Juan Rafael
Enerio Del Rosario
Josh Ravin
Jamie Arneson
Daniel Guerrero

Buckley has already stated that J.C. Sulbaran will be at Dayton or High A Sarasota.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by redsof72

I have heard that Buchholz looked decent at shortstop in instructional league but they will have to sort that out in spring training. You also have Tyler Stovall and Byron Wiley as outfielders. On the mound, I would expect Astorga and Shunick to be there. Maybe Linebaugh and Beal. They've got some competition there. I would expect Del Rosario to be in Sarasota. I agree that Arneson and Guerrero could be releases. They might hold onto Rafael as an organizational guy who can flip-flop among teams wherever there is a need--that's his only value but you do need a couple of guys like that. They will probably give Ravin one more year but I could see him starting in extended.

You are right, they probably will have Mesoraco in Sarasota but as I have said before, I think the best thing for him would be to spend the first half back in Dayton.

That jump from Billings to Dayton is one of the most interesting in the system because you can have a guy doing well in the Pioneer League with marginal talent and he gets to a full-season league and even though he looked good on paper, those marginal skills are not enough against better players. A guy like a Konstanty possibly may fall into that.

I think Mesoraco's biggest weakness right now is his defense, and I think you could work on that at pretty much any level. His bat wasn't exceptional in Dayton, but it showed glimmers of what could be a very good future. I could see him in Dayton with Bourne getting most of the catching time at Sarasota, but I think Wideman and some of the guys the Reds just drafted need a lot of at-bats, which is another reason why I could see Mesoraco being the starter at Sarasota.

Do you think it would be accurate to say that the Reds thought they had a steal when they drafted Bowman (kind of like with Ravin), but he hasn't played the way they thought he would? I could see him being moved to the bullpen if he doesn't start pitching more consistently.

[redsof72]

Bowman just has not been able to get healthy. They like his arm. I have heard he has a tendency to get the ball up. He needs to get on the hill and stay healthy. As I am sure you know, he did not have good numbers in college but they liked his arm. He is a completely different guy than Ravin. Bowman would be an interesting guy to watch if he could ever get healthy and take the ball every fifth day.

As for Mesoraco, I agree, his ability to improve his defense is job one. But for a guy that has heard a million times that he was a bad pick, I think it would do him some good to go back to Dayton, hit .300 there, feel good about his game, build some confidence, get some people off his back, and then go to Sarasota. If he starts in Sarasota and hits .255, it is a similar story to 2008, although it is going to be hard for most of us to get good information on how much his defense is improving in Sarasota. There is some political element here. Some people, namely Chris Buckley, are going to be pushing for Mesoraco in Sarasota so that it looks like the pick is on track.

[Orenda]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

So let me ask those of you who are opposed to the question.... Since the Reds filled a need (of at least a second catcher on the roster who can hold his own weight) and traded a backup outfielder and maintained all top 20 prospects in the system, how terrible of a trade can it really be?

I like Turner, I think he is a fine player and a solid prospect.... but lets be real here. He didn't make my top 20 prospects. He didn't make the community top 20 prospects. He didn't make John Sickels top 20 prospects. Would I have loved to trade Joe Blow from the GCL who can't OPS .700? Of course, but thats not going to happen. We kept our top 20+ prospects in a deal that fills an absolute need on the major league team.

My main problem with the trade is the Justin Turner addition. I think Jocketty overpaid for something another team was trying to throw out. Trading Freel made sense and now the reds apparently have their catching problem solved, even though they traded for a poor defensive guy coming off an average offensive year. I think a Waring, Jukich would have been more appropriate in terms of prospects.

Also, as it stands I see the Reds as no better than 3rd in the division, so if Jocketty wants to improve he has some more deals to make. Turner, even though he wasn't in the top 20 was a solid trade piece that the Reds no longer have to use in another deal they make, which will likely result in an unnecessary loss of someone else who could have been valuable.

[HokieRed]

I'd like to have kept Turner, too, in the best of all possible worlds, but there's no way we'd be getting 3 million bucks for Waring and Jukich.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by summerplight

My main problem with the trade is the Justin Turner addition. I think Jocketty overpaid for something another team was trying to throw out. Trading Freel made sense and now the reds apparently have their catching problem solved, even though they traded for a poor defensive guy coming off an average offensive year. I think a Waring, Jukich would have been more appropriate in terms of prospects.

Also, as it stands I see the Reds as no better than 3rd in the division, so if Jocketty wants to improve he has some more deals to make. Turner, even though he wasn't in the top 20 was a solid trade piece that the Reds no longer have to use in another deal they make, which will likely result in an unnecessary loss of someone else who could have been valuable.

You also have to realize that Baltimore may have been the one team you likely were not going to fool with a prospect, what with Wayne being on board there. I'm sure they demanded one reasonably solid prospect and one who had something going for them. Which is exactly what they got.

[Redman15]

Wayne personally called Justin to welcome him to the Orioles

[Orenda]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

You also have to realize that Baltimore may have been the one team you likely were not going to fool with a prospect, what with Wayne being on board there. I'm sure they demanded one reasonably solid prospect and one who had something going for them. Which is exactly what they got.

And I think that was a little too much to give up for Ramon Hernandez, If he has a good year I'll concede I was wrong.

[Kingspoint]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

In this hypothetical situation, I would have wanted the same thing, but I think the Reds have less room in the budget than it seems. It's estimated that the Reds will have about $80 million for the payroll budget. Here's how I see the Reds' 25-man roster budget panning out:

0.100 Juan Castro BO
2.000 Ken Griffey, Jr. BO
0.500 Mike Stanton BO
0.375 Dave Ross BO

6.000? Ramon Hernandez
0.415 Joey Votto
4.750 Brandon Phillips
3.500? Edwin Encarnacion
5.375 Alex Gonzalez
?.??? un-signed left fielder
0.405 Chris Dickerson
0.410 Jay Bruce
0.405 Ryan Hanigan
0.420 Jeff Keppinger
0.405 Danny Richar/Paul Janish/Adam Rosales/Wilkin Castillo
0.415 Norris Hopper
?.??? reserve outfielder
0.420 Edinson Volquez
11.000 Aaron Harang
0.410 Johnny Cueto
9.500 Bronson Arroyo
0.410 Micah Owings
12.000 Francisco Cordero
3.800? Dave Weathers
1.500 Mike Lincoln
0.420 Jared Burton
0.415 Bill Bray
0.410 Nick Masset
?.??? Denys Reyes/Arthur Rhodes
--------------------
65.760

Here are the question marks:
How much money do the Reds receive with Ramon Hernandez?
How much will Edwin Encarnacion receive in arbitration?
How much will the right-handed left fielder cost?
How much will a reserve outfielder/platoon partner in center cost?
How much will Dave Weathers receive in arbitration?
Will the Reds sign a left-hander for the bullpen to a Major League contract?
Will the Reds offer Gary Majewski and/or Matt Belisle arbitration?

Anyway, the Reds will have about $15 million to spend on a left-handed reliever, a reserve outfielder, and most importantly, a starting left fielder. All together, I figure that should cost about $15 million, and it looks like the Reds are on the brink of their speculated budget. That's also assuming that the Reds offer neither Majewski nor Belisle arbitration and that the Reds don't go after a starter in free agency. $1 million could easily make the difference between being over or under the budget. With Danny Richar, Chris Valaika, Alex Buchholz, Cody Puckett, Yen-Wen Kuo, etc. in the organization, I'm not going to sweat losing Red Turner for $1 million or so if it means improving the 2009 Major League roster a little bit.

And, in these economic times, only a fool or a government budget analyst would project that the REDS, no matter what their record is, will have more fans show up this upcoming season than showed up last season. Money is very important the next two years. Since the strike of the early 90's the REDS lost a lot of their older fan base....and now many of them have since passed away, especially the fans from the Big Red Machine. They didn't win a lot of new fans during the last decade. It's only now that they are attractive again, and that's going to take a couple of years before they're in the Top-10 in League attendance.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by Redman15

Wayne personally called Justin to welcome him to the Orioles

Cool, hopefully Justin does well. I always root for a gamer like that, and maybe who knows someday he could be a Red again.

[Slyder]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

So let me ask those of you who are opposed to the question.... Since the Reds filled a need (of at least a second catcher on the roster who can hold his own weight) and traded a backup outfielder and maintained all top 20 prospects in the system, how terrible of a trade can it really be?

I like Turner, I think he is a fine player and a solid prospect.... but lets be real here. He didn't make my top 20 prospects. He didn't make the community top 20 prospects. He didn't make John Sickels top 20 prospects. Would I have loved to trade Joe Blow from the GCL who can't OPS .700? Of course, but thats not going to happen. We kept our top 20+ prospects in a deal that fills an absolute need on the major league team.

The fact that Hernandez is absolutely abysmal behind the plate when Walt and everyone else was preaching "Defense, Defense, Defense" and quoted that as one of the reasons for giving away our best offensive weapon in August. We are shallow in the outfield now where theres a lot of potential but not a lot of meat and potatoes (results).

This trade took away an option for the 4th outfielder and now the only person with more than a year of experience (168 games) is the bunt master Norris Hopper. There were other options, available now that could have saved the Reds the one known quantity in the of and paid MORE than that to get it. This is the type of deal that you make during spring training when you actually see the options we have are not going to work, not during the Winter Meetings.

We may not have given up anything of value on the field or in the future but it adds anywhere from 1 mil to 3 mil to a team budget who can't afford mistakes. There were other options available. So you fill one hole at catcher and open up another in the OF and please spare me from the Keppinger to the OF or Votto thats a whole another can of worms.

[TheNext44]

Originally Posted by Slyder

The fact that Hernandez is absolutely abysmal behind the plate when Walt and everyone else was preaching "Defense, Defense, Defense" and quoted that as one of the reasons for giving away our best offensive weapon in August. We are shallow in the outfield now where theres a lot of potential but not a lot of meat and potatoes (results).

This trade took away an option for the 4th outfielder and now the only person with more than a year of experience (168 games) is the bunt master Norris Hopper. There were other options, available now that could have saved the Reds the one known quantity in the of and paid MORE than that to get it. This is the type of deal that you make during spring training when you actually see the options we have are not going to work, not during the Winter Meetings.

We may not have given up anything of value on the field or in the future but it adds anywhere from 1 mil to 3 mil to a team budget who can't afford mistakes. There were other options available. So you fill one hole at catcher and open up another in the OF and please spare me from the Keppinger to the OF or Votto thats a whole another can of worms.

4th outfielders are far easier to find than catchers.

Catchers available:

Brad Ausmus (40)
Paul Bako (37)
Josh Bard (31)
Michael Barrett (32)
Gary Bennett (37)
Henry Blanco (37)
Johnny Estrada (33)
Sal Fasano (37)
Toby Hall (33)
Paul Lo Duca (37) - Type B, not offered arb
Adam Melhuse (37)
Chad Moeller (34)
Ivan Rodriguez (37) - Type B, not offered arb
Javier Valentin (33)
Jason Varitek (37) - Type A, offered arb
Vance Wilson (36)
Gregg Zaun (38)

Outfielders available:

Left fielders
Moises Alou (42) - Type B, not offered arb
Garret Anderson (37) - Type B, not offered arb
Milton Bradley (31) - Type B, offered arb
Emil Brown (34)
Pat Burrell (32) - Type A, not offered arb
Adam Dunn (29) - Type A, not offered arb
Cliff Floyd (36)
Luis Gonzalez (41) - Type B, not offered arb
Jerry Hairston Jr. (33)
Raul Ibanez (37) - Type A, offered arb
Gabe Kapler (33)
Jason Michaels (33)
Craig Monroe (32)
Greg Norton (36)
Jay Payton (36)
Manny Ramirez (37) - Type A, offered arb
Juan Rivera (30)
So Taguchi (39)

Mark Kotsay(33)
Corey Patterson (29)
Scott Podsednik (33)

Bobby Abreu (35) - Type A, not offered arb
Ken Griffey Jr. (39) - Type B, not offered arb
Eric Hinske (31)
Trot Nixon (35)
Brad Wilkerson (32)


I highlighted the catchers that would provide close to the same production for the same price as Hernandez (none) and the outfielders that would provide close to the same production for the same price as Freel (12).

That is why it was a smart move.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Slyder

The fact that Hernandez is absolutely abysmal behind the plate when Walt and everyone else was preaching "Defense, Defense, Defense" and quoted that as one of the reasons for giving away our best offensive weapon in August. We are shallow in the outfield now where theres a lot of potential but not a lot of meat and potatoes (results).

This trade took away an option for the 4th outfielder and now the only person with more than a year of experience (168 games) is the bunt master Norris Hopper. There were other options, available now that could have saved the Reds the one known quantity in the of and paid MORE than that to get it. This is the type of deal that you make during spring training when you actually see the options we have are not going to work, not during the Winter Meetings.

We may not have given up anything of value on the field or in the future but it adds anywhere from 1 mil to 3 mil to a team budget who can't afford mistakes. There were other options available. So you fill one hole at catcher and open up another in the OF and please spare me from the Keppinger to the OF or Votto thats a whole another can of worms.

Except that Walt and the Reds scouts think that Hernandez was bad behind the plate last year more so because of other things going on behind the scenes than because he is actually a terrible defensive catcher.

[Slyder]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Except that Walt and the Reds scouts think that Hernandez was bad behind the plate last year more so because of other things going on behind the scenes than because he is actually a terrible defensive catcher.

He's not getting any younger and if he was even "league average" in the numbers I could see it. But he was downright AWFUL behind the plate! Anything short of Johnny Bench with the bat couldnt make his defense last year bearable. What would have been so bad about waiting to see if Greg Zaun, Josh Bard, even an IRod would come for the same price? Its not like Baltimore had every team busting down the door to try and get him.

You are paying him to be the starter, why? He's 32 a band aid to a gashing wound thats festered for years. You have Ryan Hanigan, who will never be mistaken as Johnny Bench, but had pretty good results with our pitchers last year. Why not save the effort and go into spring training with him as the favorite and bring in one of those others. Use this year with all the ??? that will undoubtedly be around this team at the start and see if he could maybe be a Brad Ausmus type catcher who the pitchers trust. If Spring Training comes around and Hanigan isnt cutting, gets hurt, etc then you talk to Baltimore who knows maybe at that point instead of Freel+ 2 average spects you could have gotten him for even less just to get him out of Baltimore.

Hernandez's going to start watch and see I hope I am wrong but this has Ramon Ortiz all over it. Not to mention Baltimore got a complementary Catcher in Rule 5 savings that they could now reinvest while if the Reds got this wrong are stuck with him. Time will tell I try to be even kiel on trades (see Arroyo/Pena for example) but this isnt a deal that the Reds should have been worried about during the winter meetings there should have been bigger fish to fry.