Reds have talked to agents for Baldelli, Rivera, plan to talk Burrell

[OnBaseMachine]

Here's a nice piece on Rivera:

Free Agent Bargain: Juan Rivera

by Dave Cameron - October 27, 2008 · Filed under Daily Graphings

This afternoon, we looked at the first of several potential free agent bargains this winter - Jeremy Affeldt. This afternoon, we take a look at another guy with some potential for positive reward who won’t cost an arm and a leg. That guy is Juan Rivera.

Two years ago, Rivera hit .310/.362/.525 for the Angels, racking up a 2.45 WPA/LI mark that made him a very solid contributor to Anaheim’s offense. Then, injuries struck, and the last two years have been something of a wash. He managed just 324 plate appearances between the two seasons, and the missed time cost him his shot at a regular gig in LA. Now 30 and hitting free agency, it’s unlikely that a team is going to be giving him a multi-year contract without proving he can play everyday again, but if we look at his skills, he’s still a pretty solid hitter.

Rivera’s signature skill has always been his power, and that hasn’t disappeared. Even with the health problems and limited playing time, he posted a .191 ISO last year. When you look a little deeper, there’s even more reasons for optimism. During the first three months of the season, Rivera managed all of 66 plate appearances in 30 games. He barely made it on the field from April through June, and he wasn’t giving the Angels any reason to put him in the line-up more often, struggling to a .177/.227/.226 line. He had three extra base hits, all doubles, and simply wasn’t hitting. However, Gary Matthews Jr’s struggles created an opportunity for him to play a bit more often, from July on, he showed that the old Juan Rivera still existed.

In the final three months of the season, Rivera hit .268/.299/.505, and while the OBP isn’t exactly impressive, the 22 extra base hits (12 of which were home runs) show that Rivera’s still got some juice in his swing. His overly aggressive approach at the plate will always make him a low on base guy, but that kind of power is still valuable. Even with the .299 OBP, Rivera’s WPA/LI over the final three months was -.07, making him essentially a league average hitter.

Now, if that was Rivera’s ceiling, he’d be a nifty platoon corner OF/DH type, and that would be the end of it. But Rivera was a league average hitter while hitting .270. As a guy with both good contact and power, Rivera’s got the kind of skills that could allow him to hit .290 to .310. If you don’t strike out, and you hit the ball over the wall with some frequency, it’s pretty hard to post a low batting average, thanks to the sheer quantity of chances you have for hits. Rivera managed to hit .269 over the final three months despite a .242 batting average on balls in play. That’s extraordinarily low, even for a guy hitting a ton of flyballs.

If we assume that Rivera’s true talent BABIP is more in the .280 range (it’s .292 for his career, but we’ll knock it down a bit for age and injuries), and the rest of his skills remain in tact, he’s a .290 to .300 hitter. Even with his aggressive approach, .300/.340/.500 isn’t out of the question.

Rivera may never get back to his 2006 prime, but he’s certainly better than he’s shown the last two years, and there’s no reason to think he’s washed up at age 30. For a team looking for a right-handed power bat who makes good contact and offers some upside without requiring a long term, big money deal, Rivera’s a good bet. He’ll never be a star, but he could be the kind of useful role player that is picked up cheaply that championship teams need.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...in-juan-rivera

[Cyclone792]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

Juan Rivera has put up this line as a starter: .289/.335/.474 - .809 OPS in 1,777 plate appearances. He's also a good defender. With the league change and if his BABIP normalizes (it was a ridiculously low .242 in 2008), he could possibly OPS in the .840 to .850ish area while supplying solid defense.

He doesn't walk, OBM. If the guy isn't hitting .300, he isn't helping your offense. Give him 600 PAs and he'll struggle to walk 40 times. The Reds cannot afford the risk of a .320 on-base percentage from a corner outfielder in the middle of their lineup. They just won't score enough runs next season if that's what they get.

[Rounding Third]

Originally Posted by Cyclone792

Because Jermaine Dye would actually help win you games?

Because Homer Bailey's trade value will be nothing this time next year?

Because Jermaine Dye is then likely a Type A free agent when his contract is up?

Homer Bailey can't find the strike zone. And barring injuries that would cripple the Reds' rotation this year, he isn't going to find the Reds' rotation either. Once his option years are up, whatever trade value he has now vanishes into thin air.

The Reds have an absolute hole in left field, and the only way this offense scores enough runs to matter next season is if it's filled with an absolute impact bat. Juan Rivera's lousy on-base percentage isn't that. Rocco Baldelli and a 75-game caddy isn't that. I like Burrell, but gee if you're bringing in Pat Burrell just skip over his name and dial Adam Dunn's number.

Rivera's Career OBP: .331
Dye's Career OBP: .338

Rivera's Career SLG: .468
Dye's Career SLG: .491

Rivera's Age: 30
Dye's Age: 35

Rivera's Defense: Average - Above Average
Dye's Defense: Below Average - Terribe

[Patrick Bateman]

Both Baldelli and Rivera seem like potential platoon candidates with Dickerson, as both specialize in hitting LH.

Ideally we can get a Baldelli and a Burrell, and use a trading chip like Bailey to put towards the SS hole. I'd be dissapointed if Rivera/Baldelli were the big OF haul, but I ike them as 4th OF types to play the Jeffrey Hamonds circa '99 role where he found plenty of time behind a crowded OF.

[chicoruiz]

A Dickerson-Baldelli job share in CF just makes an incredible amount of sense to me.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by Cyclone792

I don't want to turn this into a Dunn thread, but if the Reds are seriously considering either of those three guys then they ought to just bring Dunn back.

Too late...you just did.

Originally Posted by Cyclone792

Rivera can't find first base. Burrell is an older, slower, less productive, and worse defender than Dunn. I like Baldelli when he plays, but signing Baldelli would just mean that Norris Hopper would get 75 starts in left field.

Couple of thoughts here:

• Maybe Dunn doesn't want to come back.
• Burrell, while "less productive", hasn't been that much less productive than Dunn over the last few years.
• Maybe Burrell could be had cheaper and for less years than Dunn.

Originally Posted by Cyclone792

Acquiring a guy like Jermaine Dye makes sense in the fact that A) he's actually good, and B) he's likely just a stopgap until Alonso forces the Reds' hands with Votto and the first base/left field situation.

Dye would potentially cost Bailey and $11MM as just a "stopgap" for this season. He is also older than Burrell. Lastly, Burrell has had higher OPS+ than Dye in 3 of the last 5 seasons. I would think that Burrell would make more sense than Dye would, dependent upon the terms of the contract.

I really think those who are anti-Burrell are so because they see him as Dunn-lite and for whatever reason feel the need to automatically compare him to Dunn. Burrell would be a positive contributor to this ballclub and he would be a good addition. And, if Alonso forces their hand, then one of them can be dealt to upgrade another spot on the roster.

[Cyclone792]

Originally Posted by Rounding Third

Rivera's Career OBP: .331
Dye's Career OBP: .338

Rivera's Career SLG: .468
Dye's Career SLG: .491

Rivera's Age: 30
Dye's Age: 35

Rivera's Defense: Average - Above Average
Dye's Defense: Below Average - Terribe

Lifetime Away OBP for Rivera: .323

Not to mention he hasn't even had an on-base percentage north of .300 in three years.

People should have learned enough lessons over the years that players who refuse to walk are extremely high risk when it comes to lousy on-base percentage. We're not talking about an excellent defensive shortstop here to just bat 8th and forget about; we're talking about a guy the Reds want to put in a corner outfield slot and in the middle of their lineup.

Yes, I'll pass on that quickly.

[Rounding Third]

Originally Posted by Cyclone792

Not to mention he hasn't even had an on-base percentage north of .300 in three years.

You mean like the .362 OBP in 2006, 3 years ago?

He also kinda had a broken leg and was in the same outfield as Torii Hunter, Garrett Anderson, Gary Matthews Jr, and Vlad.

Could be had for cheap and is worth a pickup.

[Boss-Hog]

Let's not turn this into yet another Dunn thread...we have enough out there for a lifetime and then some.

[OnBaseMachine]

I wonder how well a Danny Dorn/Rocco Baldelli platoon would work in left field? Danny Dorn absolutely murders right handed pitching. Last year in Double-A Chattanooga he hit .290/.379/.592 - .971 OPS vs RHP. Of course that would still leave us in need of another RH bench player to platoon with Dickerson/Dorn on days when a LHP is on the mound.

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by Cyclone792

He doesn't walk, OBM. If the guy isn't hitting .300, he isn't helping your offense. Give him 600 PAs and he'll struggle to walk 40 times. The Reds cannot afford the risk of a .320 on-base percentage from a corner outfielder in the middle of their lineup. They just won't score enough runs next season if that's what they get.

DYe walked 44 times last year in 634 PA's.


So I guess he's not the answer either.

[Cyclone792]

Originally Posted by Rounding Third

You mean like the .362 OBP in 2006, 3 years ago?

He also kinda had a broken leg and was in the same outfield as Torii Hunter, Garrett Anderson, Gary Matthews Jr, and Vlad.

Could be had for cheap and is worth a pickup.

As I said, when he doesn't hit .300, he's worthless. He's had two good seasons, and both times it required him to hit .300. You want to take that chance, feel free, but you'll likely lose that bet. If the Reds are serious about contending for a playoff spot, they need an impact bat in left field. Juan Rivera isn't that bat.

I'm interested in the Reds playing October baseball next year. The type of dart-throwing moves with a corner outfield middle of the lineup bat aren't going to get them there.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by Cyclone792

He doesn't walk, OBM. If the guy isn't hitting .300, he isn't helping your offense. Give him 600 PAs and he'll struggle to walk 40 times. The Reds cannot afford the risk of a .320 on-base percentage from a corner outfielder in the middle of their lineup. They just won't score enough runs next season if that's what they get.

Well he hasn't exactly had a real good opportunity to prove anything at this point. Exactly 2 times he has gotten 400 PA's (more than a platoon situation) and in those 2 times he's posted .300+ BA, .360+ OBP, .465+ Slg%. He also at age 25 had been showing the improvement that you talk about with regards to talking BB's in a full season that year he was on pace for 50+ BB's. Had he not had to fight for playing time perhaps he would have settled in and improved to the point where he would have had 60 or more in a season which is your minimum for what age 26 or 27. Perhaps you are wrong about Rivera, just sayin' if you give him a chance he might just prove he's more than a free swinger.

[Caveat Emperor]

Originally Posted by Cyclone792

I'm interested in the Reds playing October baseball next year. The type of dart-throwing moves with a corner outfield middle of the lineup bat aren't going to get them there.

I'd be with you, but your arguments lose all water when you say "Jermaine Dye can help the Reds win ballgames."

Trading for Jermaine Dye is buying into the same fairytale nonsense that signing Juan Rivera requires. The difference is that with Dye, you buy into the fairytale that outfielders get better with age as opposed to Rivera, that he can replicate his base-hit driven OBA on a consistent basis.

They're both crap targets, and the Reds deserve to finish in the cellar if they acquire either one.

[reds44]

I didn't realize Rivera was 30 already, that makes him a lot less attractive. I'd love to get Baldelli and have him platoon with Dickerson though. Sign Burrell, trade Homer for a SS, then we have something.