Prospect #25 runoff vote

[OnBaseMachine]

It's down to Jeremy Horst or Travis Wood.

[camisadelgolf]

Wood is coming off a bad year, and Horst is coming off a good year. I don't think Wood will ever do any worse, and I don't think Horst will ever do any better.

[Mario-Rijo]

I don't know that I agree with Cam's opinion completely but I'd say the conclusion is probably about right Wood (Feb. '87) still has the velocity going for him and his change up is very good and he is actually younger than Horst (Oct. '85) and 2 levels higher. Although I'd say realistically they both should have been at the same level, but I suspect Wood would have outperformed him there.

Bottom line too me is Velocity and right now Wood still has it and Horst doesn't have enough yet and maybe never will. Horst has Maloney upside unless he finds a few more MPH. So Wood has the ceiling and the floor, but his time is running out. Fortunately he has seemingly made it through the injury nexus without completely blowing up so maybe now in his 22 year old season he may put it together finally.

[Superdude]

Is Wood even throwing harder than Horst at this point? Horst is usually around 90 isn't he?

[*BaseClogger*]

Pick a lefty...

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by Superdude

Is Wood even throwing harder than Horst at this point? Horst is usually around 90 isn't he?

Their velocities are similar. I think Horst might have a 1 MPH advantage. I think Wood's changeup rates better, but they both have great changeups.

[mace]

What I like about Horst is that 1) he took off at virtually the instant the Dragons put him in the rotation last year, and 2) he was clutch and dominant in the playoffs. I won't judge him by stuff because I haven't seen it. I have seen, however, that he has 165 K in 143.2 innings.

Wood is slightly younger, but bear in mind that Horst wasn't signed until he was 21. I also like the fact that he's a big guy.

That said, when Wood was in Dayton -- before getting hurt -- there was a lot to like, too.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by Superdude

Is Wood even throwing harder than Horst at this point? Horst is usually around 90 isn't he?

I've never heard of Horst throwing anywhere near where Wood throws it. But I suppose it's possible that in order to be effective Wood may have to dial it down a bit. I thought Wood had as much as 3 MPH on Horst, Wood at 93-95 and Horst at 89-92.

[dougdirt]

They have similar velocities, but Wood does have a small advantage or 1-2 MPH. He also has a better change up, but Horst has a very good change up himself. I went with Horst though because right now, he has shown better health and he throws a lot more strikes. Horst doesn't have the ceiling, but his floor is a bit higher I believe. Right now, I think Horst has less to improve upon to be a major leaguer.

[RED VAN HOT]

Originally Posted by mace

Wood is slightly younger, but bear in mind that Horst wasn't signed until he was 21. I also like the fact that he's a big guy.

I have often wondered about the advantage of being big. Intuitively, it seems to me that a big guy has an advantage in that his release point will be closer to the batter. That would effectively shorten the time that the batter has to react to the pitch. A little quick math on my part indicates that the reaction time may be shortened by as much as one one hundredth of a second. I am sure this has been explored by others. Can someone comment?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by RED VAN HOT

I have often wondered about the advantage of being big. Intuitively, it seems to me that a big guy has an advantage in that his release point will be closer to the batter. That would effectively shorten the time that the batter has to react to the pitch. A little quick math on my part indicates that the reaction time may be shortened by as much as one one hundredth of a second. I am sure this has been explored by others. Can someone comment?

While that seems like it makes sense, the physics don't exactly work that way. The Pitch FX system has really brought that to light. The spin that the ball has actually has more to do with it than anything else. You can have two pitches at 95 MPH when they start (which is where its actually measured) and both cross the plate at a fairly significant drop in speed. One may cross the plate at 81.5 MPH and another might cross at 83.5 MPH.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

While that seems like it makes sense, the physics don't exactly work that way. The Pitch FX system has really brought that to light. The spin that the ball has actually has more to do with it than anything else. You can have two pitches at 95 MPH when they start (which is where its actually measured) and both cross the plate at a fairly significant drop in speed. One may cross the plate at 81.5 MPH and another might cross at 83.5 MPH.

What exactly do you mean Doug? How fast the ball spins determines which 95 MPH fastball is more effective? Please explain I'm just not seeing how a tall guy with the same velocity wouldn't have an advantage all other things being the same for example.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

What exactly do you mean Doug? How fast the ball spins determines which 95 MPH fastball is more effective? Please explain I'm just not seeing how a tall guy with the same velocity wouldn't have an advantage all other things being the same for example.

The spin of the ball determines the deceleration of the baseball as it goes forward. Two fastballs leaving the pitchers hand 55 feet from home plate are not going to cross home plate at the same speed, one is actually going to get to the plate faster because it is decelerating slower.

Example - Edinson Volquez last start of the year. First pitch of the game was first clocked at 94.0 MPH and it crossed home plate at 84.6 MPH. His third pitch of the game was first clocked at 94.5 MPH and it crossed home plate at 86.6 MPH. The fifth pitch of the game was first clocked at 96.0 MPH and it crossed home plate at 86.4 MPH. The spin of the pitch will cause it to decelerate at differing rates, even when they start out at similar speeds.

[redsof72]

I have not seen Wood pitch so I can't comment on him. Horst is a lefty, but as many readers are aware, he is much better against right-handed hitters than left-handers because his change-up is harder for a right-handed hitter to lay off of. Horst will never be a situational lefty type.

In regards to age, one thing I would take into consideration with a guy like Horst is that when he was drafted in '07 as a 21 year old, he was not a polished product out of LSU or Texas. He was a guy out of Armstrong Atlantic in Georgia who had an ERA of over 5.00 in his last year of college (and had come out of high school in North Dakota, where the high school season had to be very brief). Then in 2008, as a 22 year old, he made huge advances and was dominant. He might have improved as much as almost any pitcher in the organization over the course of the 2008 season. If he improves as much from '08 to '09 as he did from '07 to '08, his age would not be as much of a factor.

That is not to say he is a better or worse prospect than Wood. Just something to consider.

Doug, if Wood has a better change-up than Horst, then Wood has one tremendous change-up.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by redsof72

Doug, if Wood has a better change-up than Horst, then Wood has one tremendous change-up.

A scout I have talked to said this year after seeing Wood in Chattanooga that Travis Wood has the best change up of any lefty in baseball that isn't named Cole Hamels. Take it for what its worth, but I certainly believe him. It is that good.