Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

[Raisor]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

Who had the better season? Who knows. The info you provided doesn't even come close to answering that question. If player 1 played gold glove caliber defense and player 2 was a statue out there, that would change things a bit. If player 1 scored 100 runs and player 2 only scored 10 runs. There are a ton of factors obviously. Now if you want to know which of the 2 I'd want based ONLY on those limited stats...I'd take #1 because he'd have the better odds of driving in runs by having more hits. But who knows with only that data.



.

Player 1. 101 Runs, 99 RBI
Player 2. 105 Runs, 102 RBI

Player 1 34 more hits then player 2, but 3 less RBI.

Runs Created
Player 1 115 RC
Player 2 132 RC

Player 2 had about 20 more PA's or so.

Player 2 was slightly better, but essentially they had the same season.

Which is the point. I don't care HOW a guy creates runs, just that he creates them.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

Okay, I'll buy that they're not black holes AS OFTEN...but they're still black holes at times. And in regards to Taveras, I think he'll be more like he was in 2007, but if he's not...we still needed OF'ers, I don't want to rush the kids if they're not ready, and I don't see any options out there that are better in the FA market. At least none that'll be short term contracts for reasonable dollars.

Why?

What reason could you possibly have for thinking a player will repeat his career year, one limited to under 100 games, when the majority of his career played in hitter friendly parks has been abysmal?

[BoydsOfSummer]

I should be pissed about this, but somehow I'm not. They have beaten me down. I knew a month ago that it would take a miracle for the Reds to "be competitive" in '09. This move doesn't change anything. The one thing keeping me interested at all is that we do have some exciting young players that will be fun to watch as they mature.

My girlfriend and her son are Red Sox fans. Maybe it's time....

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by Raisor

Player 1. 101 Runs, 99 RBI
Player 2. 105 Runs, 102 RBI

Player 1 34 more hits then player 2, but 3 less RBI.

Runs Created
Player 1 115 RC
Player 2 132 RC

Player 2 had about 20 more PA's or so.

Player 2 was slightly better, but essentially they had the same season.

Which is the point. I don't care HOW a guy creates runs, just that he creates them.

I agree. However, I still don't care for certain stats in regards to evaluating a PLAYER. Runs scored...yes, it's up to the hitter to get on base in the first place, but then he's dependant upon his teammates to drive him in and add to that runs scored stat. Crappy players hitting behind him...and his RC stat doesn't reflect how good of a season the player had. A good portion of the saberstats out there only look at the individual player. It's a team game and while one player may be poor in some important stat...he may help the team in the long run by complimenting the other players as a whole. Better defense improves the pitching, but that improved pitching isn't reflected in that defensive player's stats. A speed threat on the basepaths doesn't only generate additional scoring opportunities, but it also distracts the pitcher and can force him to rush his deliveries and make mistakes...enhancing his teammates chances of pounding the guy. And again, that wouldn't show up in that players' stats by distracting the pitcher.

I'm not saying I love the Taveras signing...but I certainly don't hate it. We needed an OF'er and we DEFINITELY needed some speed and smarts on the basepaths. While our team SB stats might have been respectable last year, it was our stupid mistakes on the bases that ran us out of MANY innings...and again, many of those don't show up in the stats. Stats are helpful, but they rarely tell the full story.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by TRF

Why?

What reason could you possibly have for thinking a player will repeat his career year, one limited to under 100 games, when the majority of his career played in hitter friendly parks has been abysmal?

Sorry, I wasn't meaning to say he'll repeat a career year, but rather to bounce back to his norm. Last year was a below average season other than the SB's. He's normally hit for a good average (especially compared to what we've been seeing from our OF'er....280 looks great compared to a .230). While I'd love to see him show more patience and draw more walks, I'll settle for a nice average, good defense and some solid SB numbers.

[boognish]

The Reds always manage to make signings I dread every offseason no matter the individuals in charge.

Epic Fail.

[mth123]

The worst quote of 2008. WJ from an article on MLB.com

"With Bruce and Taveras, we have two of our outfield spots filled," Jocketty said. "We'd like to add another hitter, but if we don't, we have good pitching and defense and speed. We could find ways to manufacture runs without a big RBI guy."

Taveras wasn't brought in to be part of the mix. He's your main offensive acquisition. The team is worse now than it was this morning. Patterson, Ross, Bako, Griffey, Castro, Majewski, Milton and Fogg were all addition by subtraction in 2008. Taveras is subtraction by addition.

[Raisor]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

and his RC stat doesn't reflect how good of a season the player had. A good portion of the saberstats out there only look at the individual player. It's a team game and while one player may be poor in some important stat...he may help the team in the long run by complimenting the other players as a whole. .

That's why the RC stat is so good.

In 2008, the Reds scored 704 runs but "created" 724.1 runs, a difference of 0.15 runs a game.

We can look at a player's RC and know with about a 97% accuracy, how many runs that player contributed to the team.

Joey Votto created 96.3 of the team's 724.1 Runs Created in 08 (so about 93.4 actual runs). We can use that to figure out how an offense works, and we can measure that against other teams/players.

With a 97-98% accuracy, we KNOW that Willy T has produced about 65 runs per 600 PA's in three of his four seasons. We KNOW that in 07 he was at around 85 runs. We can compare those numbers to other CFers and we can be pretty darn certain what he's going to do in 09. Sure, he could blow up and have an average year, but the odds aren't good. At. All.

[Raisor]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

Sorry, I wasn't meaning to say he'll repeat a career year, but rather to bounce back to his norm. .

Look at the numbers I've posted multiple times.

His 08 WAS a bounce back. He was within 2 runs created per 600 PA's from his 05 and 06 numbers.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

I agree. However, I still don't care for certain stats in regards to evaluating a PLAYER. Runs scored...yes, it's up to the hitter to get on base in the first place, but then he's dependant upon his teammates to drive him in and add to that runs scored stat. Crappy players hitting behind him...and his RC stat doesn't reflect how good of a season the player had. A good portion of the saberstats out there only look at the individual player. It's a team game and while one player may be poor in some important stat...he may help the team in the long run by complimenting the other players as a whole. Better defense improves the pitching, but that improved pitching isn't reflected in that defensive player's stats. A speed threat on the basepaths doesn't only generate additional scoring opportunities, but it also distracts the pitcher and can force him to rush his deliveries and make mistakes...enhancing his teammates chances of pounding the guy. And again, that wouldn't show up in that players' stats by distracting the pitcher.

I'm not saying I love the Taveras signing...but I certainly don't hate it. We needed an OF'er and we DEFINITELY needed some speed and smarts on the basepaths. While our team SB stats might have been respectable last year, it was our stupid mistakes on the bases that ran us out of MANY innings...and again, many of those don't show up in the stats. Stats are helpful, but they rarely tell the full story.

You can't steal 1B.

You seem to be combining Taveras 2007 season with his 2008 season, hoping that the best from both seasons combine to form a good player.

24 players in the NL scored 90+ runs last year. The lowest OBP was .333 by Stephen Drew, but he hit 21 HR's. He offset his low OBP with power. This goes to what Raisor was saying about how he didn't care how runs are created so long as they are.

I'd love nothing more than to see Taveras hit .320, OBP .365+ steal 68 bases, raising his speed adjusted SLG to over .530.

It's not going to happen, but I'd certainly love it.

[SteelSD]

Originally Posted by Raisor

Look at the numbers I've posted multiple times.

His 08 WAS a bounce back. He was within 2 runs created per 600 PA's from his 05 and 06 numbers.

If you equalize the BUH% assuming the same number of Bunt attempts, Taveras' 2007 OBP drops to .333. Then if we add in the Caught Stealing numbers from that season, his speed-adjusted OBP drops to .304.

That's quite frightening.

[remdog]

I'm not even going to begin to read through the gazillion comments already in this thread.

All I can say is, Walt, I've been behind ya' so far but wth this silly, desperate move to achieve nothing, you've deeply disappointed me and make me now question your ability to build a winning team.

I'm going to have to take a pause in my support of you and seriously reconsider whether or not you are up to the task.

Rem

[SteelSD]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

We needed an OF'er and we DEFINITELY needed some speed and smarts on the basepaths.

Can you please explain how basepath speed helps when it's sitting in the dugout after an inordinate amount of Plate Appearances? Your entire position doubles back upon itself when we run into that not-so-tiny fundamental point.

He's fast, but doesn't get on base so the speed argument is pretty much moot. Willy Taveras doesn't put any pressure on the opposing defense. He only pressures his own offense because they have to somehow make up for his lack of anything resembling even a mediocre offensive game.

[IslandRed]

Originally Posted by remdog

All I can say is, Walt, I've been behind ya' so far but wth this silly, desperate move to achieve nothing, you've deeply disappointed me and make me now question your ability to build a winning team.

Well, we know he CAN build a winning team, but if he does it here, this probably won't be one of the moves responsible for it.

[Ron Madden]

BF and his buddies over at Reds.com love this move.


That should tell ya somethin'.