A question from out in leftfield..... - RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion

jojo · 01-01-2009, 04:27 PM

The Reds have what most fans consider a vacancy in left field this off season. Entering the free agent market there were several "big name" left fielders available (arguably the biggest crop of namers in several seasons).

Why haven't the Reds filled this apparent hole yet?

****I decided that given the options that would've been in the poll, some people might've wanted to select multiple options so in lieu of options that I've contrived, what do you think the reason is??????

Spitball · 01-01-2009, 04:42 PM

Moises Alou (42) - Old and oft injured
Garret Anderson (37) - Ditto
Milton Bradley (31) - Often injured head case in a young clubhouse
Emil Brown (34) Been off for a couple of years
Pat Burrell (32) - Left handed bat, too expensive, Dunn-lite
Adam Dunn (29) - Unfortunately, time to turn the page
Cliff Floyd (36) -Often injured left handed bat
Luis Gonzalez (41) -Older than old
Jerry Hairston Jr. (33)- May happen
Gabe Kapler (33) -Often injured
Craig Monroe (32) -Hmmf
Jay Payton (36) -Fifth outfielder at this point
Manny Ramirez (37) - Waiting on three expensive years
So Taguchi (39) -Old extra part type

Maybe the Reds figure there just isn't a smooth fit out there.

camisadelgolf · 01-01-2009, 04:52 PM

Burrell is a right-handed hitter, and Bradley is rumored to have signed with the Cubs. It's also worth exploring the possibility of converting a center or right fielder to left field.

RedEye · 01-01-2009, 05:02 PM

Although I don't really like it, I have a feeling that Walt will end up signing Pat Burrell. If Dunn is not an option and Bradley is with the Cubs, he's the one that bothers me the least.

RedEye · 01-01-2009, 05:03 PM

Add Pat and Rocco to the mix in the next few weeks and I might actually be able to pry some optimism from the jaws of my despair. Might.

Falls City Beer · 01-01-2009, 05:09 PM

They're going el cheapo with a patchwork approach. Until the cavalry arrives.

Or a trade including one of their starters can be made.

*BaseClogger* · 01-01-2009, 05:11 PM

The FO and the fanbase have unrealistic expectations. We want a player who is better than Adam Dunn, but will come cheaper. Well, all the good players cost money. And all the cheap players have warts. But without making a decision, Jocketty is committing a far worse sin. Sitting on his hands is the worst thing he could do. The Reds will go nowhere with Chris Dickerson or Norris Hopper in LF. That's no OF depth!

I think the best thing they can do is to go ahead and pay the price for Nick Swisher if he's available (an important factor in it's own right). He's a guy both "sides" can agree on; the old school likes his grinder attitude and the new school likes his OPS.

Swisher has many attractive features:

-He won't be cheap but his $ price isn't outrageous. He's set to make $5.3M in 09, $6.75M in 10, $9M in 11, and a $10.25M club option in 12 with a $1M buyout. That means Swisher would only be 31 years old in the last year of control including the option. Now, I know some might think he makes too much at the end of that contract. But with the way the market is trending, especially if the economy improves, I expect $10.25M to be a bargain in 2012.

-He will only be 28 years old in 2009.

-He can't handle CF, but he is athletic enough to play the corner OF effectively. He has a career +6.3 UZR in LF and +14.2 UZR in RF. He's also fair at 1B.

-He is a career .244/.354/.451 and most of it was spent in Oakland's cavernous park. Despite his dissapointing 2008, Swisher still has all of the skills that have made him valuable throughout his career: his .113 isoD was higher than his career isoD of .110. His isoP of .191 was within reach of his career .207 isoP. The drop in isoP can likely be explained by his decline in doubles from 5.5 doubles per 100 AB in his career to 4.2 doubles per 100 AB in 2008. It's easy to see the problem in 2008 was BA; Swisher hit only .219. But why did the BA fall so precipitously? His pitch recognition skillls didn't decline. He still hit the ball hard. His LD% went up and his GB% and FB% were consistent. He didn't even strike out much more than usual (25.5 K per 100 AB for his career and 27.2 K per 100 AB in 2008).

Nick Swisher is younger than he who shall not be named and his overall package is comparable. It would cost prospects to acquire him, but his contract is very friendly. I would part with a couple of good prospects to acquire Nick Swisher...

Falls City Beer · 01-01-2009, 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RedEye

Add Pat and Rocco to the mix in the next few weeks and I might actually be able to pry some optimism from the jaws of my despair. Might.

That's a sizeable hunk of change getting lumped on to the payroll. I wouldn't look for that anytime soon.

JaxRed · 01-01-2009, 05:43 PM

Holy cow, I had no idea Swisher's contract was so bad. The Reds would be nuts to trade for him.

RedEye · 01-01-2009, 06:31 PM

Nick Swisher and Rocco Baldelli would both make a lot of sense for this team. There is no way WJ will acquire either of them.

SteelSD · 01-01-2009, 06:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JaxRed

Holy cow, I had no idea Swisher's contract was so bad. The Reds would be nuts to trade for him.

What do you think players get paid nowadays?

Swisher has a career adjusted OPS+ of 112 and even after an off-year (caused by an extremely low .251 BABIP) has put up a three-year OPS of .817 (including two 120+ aOPS seasons). The guy's an excellent bounce-back candidate as both his 2008 IsoD and IsoP numbers were in line with his career norms. That's certainly worth 7.02M per season over the next three years and should Swisher not be worth 10.25M in 2012, the 1M buyout pushes that to an average of only 7.35M. Nothing at all wrong with that contract.

Johnny Footstool · 01-01-2009, 06:44 PM

Swisher would be a good LF target at this point.

He would have been a bad CF target, though. But I guess Willy T. and his alleged "defense" have locked down that position now.

jojo · 01-01-2009, 07:03 PM

I think Swisher would be a great target.

blumj · 01-01-2009, 07:16 PM

They should have grabbed him when the White Sox were selling him, then. The Yankees are smart enough to know he's a better player than Xavier Nady.

Falls City Beer · 01-01-2009, 07:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RedEye

Nick Swisher and Rocco Baldelli would both make a lot of sense for this team. There is no way WJ will acquire either of them.

I'm not sure I share your pessimism. Nor do I share the enthusiasm for either Baldelli or Swisher. They're fine, but they've both got red flags attached to them.

01-01-2009, 04:27 PM	#1
jojo Five Tool Fool Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 16,553	A question from out in leftfield..... The Reds have what most fans consider a vacancy in left field this off season. Entering the free agent market there were several "big name" left fielders available (arguably the biggest crop of namers in several seasons). Why haven't the Reds filled this apparent hole yet? **I decided that given the options that would've been in the poll, some people might've wanted to select multiple options so in lieu of options that I've contrived, what do you think the reason is?????? __________________ "This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner** Last edited by jojo; 01-01-2009 at 04:33 PM.

01-01-2009, 04:42 PM	#2
Spitball Member Join Date: Apr 2000 Posts: 5,491	Re: A question from out in leftfield..... Moises Alou (42) - Old and oft injured Garret Anderson (37) - Ditto Milton Bradley (31) - Often injured head case in a young clubhouse Emil Brown (34) Been off for a couple of years Pat Burrell (32) - Left handed bat, too expensive, Dunn-lite Adam Dunn (29) - Unfortunately, time to turn the page Cliff Floyd (36) -Often injured left handed bat Luis Gonzalez (41) -Older than old Jerry Hairston Jr. (33)- May happen Gabe Kapler (33) -Often injured Craig Monroe (32) -Hmmf Jay Payton (36) -Fifth outfielder at this point Manny Ramirez (37) - Waiting on three expensive years So Taguchi (39) -Old extra part type Maybe the Reds figure there just isn't a smooth fit out there. __________________ "Colorless green ideas sleep furiously."- Noam Chomsky Last edited by Spitball; 01-01-2009 at 04:45 PM.

01-01-2009, 04:52 PM	#3
camisadelgolf Vampire Weekend @Bernie's Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Cincinnati, OH Posts: 11,311	Re: A question from out in leftfield..... Burrell is a right-handed hitter, and Bradley is rumored to have signed with the Cubs. It's also worth exploring the possibility of converting a center or right fielder to left field.

01-01-2009, 05:02 PM	#4
RedEye Ojo Rojo Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Moving to Atlanta in July Posts: 4,403	Re: A question from out in leftfield..... Although I don't really like it, I have a feeling that Walt will end up signing Pat Burrell. If Dunn is not an option and Bradley is with the Cubs, he's the one that bothers me the least. __________________ "It's a dog-eat-dog world and I'm wearing milkbone underwear." - Norm (George Wendt), Cheers

01-01-2009, 05:03 PM	#5
RedEye Ojo Rojo Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Moving to Atlanta in July Posts: 4,403	Re: A question from out in leftfield..... Add Pat and Rocco to the mix in the next few weeks and I might actually be able to pry some optimism from the jaws of my despair. Might. __________________ "It's a dog-eat-dog world and I'm wearing milkbone underwear." - Norm (George Wendt), Cheers

01-01-2009, 05:09 PM	#6
Falls City Beer Member Join Date: Dec 2000 Location: Philadelphia Posts: 24,098	Re: A question from out in leftfield..... They're going el cheapo with a patchwork approach. Until the cavalry arrives. Or a trade including one of their starters can be made.

01-01-2009, 05:11 PM	#7
BaseClogger WOOOOO!!! Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: Midland, MI Posts: 6,075	Re: A question from out in leftfield..... The FO and the fanbase have unrealistic expectations. We want a player who is better than Adam Dunn, but will come cheaper. Well, all the good players cost money. And all the cheap players have warts. But without making a decision, Jocketty is committing a far worse sin. Sitting on his hands is the worst thing he could do. The Reds will go nowhere with Chris Dickerson or Norris Hopper in LF. That's no OF depth! I think the best thing they can do is to go ahead and pay the price for Nick Swisher if he's available (an important factor in it's own right). He's a guy both "sides" can agree on; the old school likes his grinder attitude and the new school likes his OPS. Swisher has many attractive features: -He won't be cheap but his $ price isn't outrageous. He's set to make $5.3M in 09, $6.75M in 10, $9M in 11, and a $10.25M club option in 12 with a $1M buyout. That means Swisher would only be 31 years old in the last year of control including the option. Now, I know some might think he makes too much at the end of that contract. But with the way the market is trending, especially if the economy improves, I expect $10.25M to be a bargain in 2012. -He will only be 28 years old in 2009. -He can't handle CF, but he is athletic enough to play the corner OF effectively. He has a career +6.3 UZR in LF and +14.2 UZR in RF. He's also fair at 1B. -He is a career .244/.354/.451 and most of it was spent in Oakland's cavernous park. Despite his dissapointing 2008, Swisher still has all of the skills that have made him valuable throughout his career: his .113 isoD was higher than his career isoD of .110. His isoP of .191 was within reach of his career .207 isoP. The drop in isoP can likely be explained by his decline in doubles from 5.5 doubles per 100 AB in his career to 4.2 doubles per 100 AB in 2008. It's easy to see the problem in 2008 was BA; Swisher hit only .219. But why did the BA fall so precipitously? His pitch recognition skillls didn't decline. He still hit the ball hard. His LD% went up and his GB% and FB% were consistent. He didn't even strike out much more than usual (25.5 K per 100 AB for his career and 27.2 K per 100 AB in 2008). Nick Swisher is younger than he who shall not be named and his overall package is comparable. It would cost prospects to acquire him, but his contract is very friendly. I would part with a couple of good prospects to acquire Nick Swisher... __________________ "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me." Last edited by BaseClogger; 01-01-2009 at 06:43 PM.

01-01-2009, 05:43 PM	#9
JaxRed Member Join Date: Apr 2000 Location: Jacksonville, FL Posts: 9,228	Re: A question from out in leftfield..... Holy cow, I had no idea Swisher's contract was so bad. The Reds would be nuts to trade for him.

01-01-2009, 06:31 PM	#10
RedEye Ojo Rojo Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Moving to Atlanta in July Posts: 4,403	Re: A question from out in leftfield..... Nick Swisher and Rocco Baldelli would both make a lot of sense for this team. There is no way WJ will acquire either of them. __________________ "It's a dog-eat-dog world and I'm wearing milkbone underwear." - Norm (George Wendt), Cheers

01-01-2009, 06:44 PM	#12
Johnny Footstool Churlish Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: Olathe, KS Posts: 13,664	Re: A question from out in leftfield..... Swisher would be a good LF target at this point. He would have been a bad CF target, though. But I guess Willy T. and his alleged "defense" have locked down that position now. __________________ "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

01-01-2009, 07:03 PM	#13
jojo Five Tool Fool Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 16,553	Re: A question from out in leftfield..... I think Swisher would be a great target. __________________ "This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

01-01-2009, 07:16 PM	#14
blumj Member Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 4,329	Re: A question from out in leftfield..... They should have grabbed him when the White Sox were selling him, then. The Yankees are smart enough to know he's a better player than Xavier Nady. __________________ "Reality tells us there are no guarantees. Except that some day Jon Lester will be on that list of 100-game winners." - Peter Gammons

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