Baseball America on Danny Dorn

[OnBaseMachine]

Though the expected return on a draft pick after even the first few rounds drops precipitously, there are future big leaguers to be found in the later rounds, even excluding players who drop due to signability reasons. The 11th round of the 2001 draft produced both Geovany Soto and Dan Uggla. In 2004, Tampa Bay drafted Andy Sonnanstine in the 13th round, three rounds before the Diamondbacks snagged Mark Reynolds.

So, who might be the next late-round gem floating around the minors right now?

We’ll exclude draft-and-follows and players who signed from the 10th round and on for bonuses well above slot. Lars Anderson was a great pick for the Red Sox when they drafted him in the 18th round in 2006, but he came with an $825,000 price tag.

Here are five players drafted in the 10th round or later who have a chance to exceed expectations and become quality big leaguers.

Danny Dorn, lf, Reds: Nine hundred fifty three players went off the board in the 2006 draft before the Reds selected Dorn in the 32nd round as a Cal State Fullerton senior. Eight of Dorn’s Fullerton teammates even went ahead of him the draft. But none of them has performed as well in the professional ranks as Dorn. In a little more than 1,000 professional plate appearances, Dorn’s career line is a sweet .297/.387/.528, including a .277/.367/.539 showing last year with Double-A Chattanooga. Dorn, 24, surprised some in the Southern League with the way he hit, particularly in the second half, shortening his swing and pulling the ball with more authority. The concerns about about the lefty-hitting Dorn are whether he can replicate his offensive success at higher levels, his lack of physical projection and his defense, which limits him to left field or first base. He’s also battled some physical ailments with his leg and shoulder, but he’s already come farther than many expected in 2006.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=2159

[BRM]

I'd still like to know why he didn't get an invite to Spring Training. It's not like the Reds are busting at the seams with quality corner outfielders.

[RedEye]

So what type of player does this guy project as in the majors? Realistically? Are we talking a Kevin Millar type hitter? Or a Gabe Kapler? Or Matt Stairs? Or Lew Ford? These are just random names I'm throwing out here... anyone have an idea?

[mth123]

Originally Posted by RedEye

So what type of player does this guy project as in the majors? Realistically? Are we talking a Kevin Millar type hitter? Or a Gabe Kapler? Or Matt Stairs? Or Lew Ford? These are just random names I'm throwing out here... anyone have an idea?

I think Matt Stairs is a good comp.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by RedEye

So what type of player does this guy project as in the majors? Realistically? Are we talking a Kevin Millar type hitter? Or a Gabe Kapler? Or Matt Stairs? Or Lew Ford? These are just random names I'm throwing out here... anyone have an idea?

A good one I have heard is Luke Scott.

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

A good one I have heard is Luke Scott.

I like that comp.

Luke Scott - minor league career:

.280/.363/.534 - .897 OPS

Danny Dorn - minor league career:

.297/.387/.528 - .915 OPS

Scott was always older than the competition while Dorn roughly the average age. Both have similar offensive skills sets - good on-base skills and very good power.

Brad Hawpe and Matt Joyce are others that come to mind when I think of Dorn.

[gedred69]

I love this!! Dorn getting some respect! I talked to Doc on the radio, and when I threw Dorn in, he said, "Huh"? Then after I hung up he came back on the air with Dorn's stats and said, "How come we didn't know about this guy"? He's the only Reds Minor Leaguer ready to hit at GABP. Eh, Doug?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by gedred69

I love this!! Dorn getting some respect! I talked to Doc on the radio, and when I threw Dorn in, he said, "Huh"? Then after I hung up he came back on the air with Dorn's stats and said, "How come we didn't know about this guy"? He's the only Reds Minor Leaguer ready to hit at GABP. Eh, Doug?

'How come we didn't know about this guy'?

Probably because you don't do your homework Doc.

[RED VAN HOT]

It seems to me that lower round picks have to prove themselves to a far greater extent than the higher picks. They must produce sufficiently to overcome the perception of having a limited ceiling. If a high pick had put up Dorn's numbers he would have received an invite to ST. To some extent the limited success of lower round picks is in part a self-fulfilling prophecy.

[Highlifeman21]

Originally Posted by BRM

I'd still like to know why he didn't get an invite to Spring Training. It's not like the Reds are busting at the seams with quality corner outfielders.

... b/c Danny Dorn doesn't fit the "fringe" or "depth" definition

[osuceltic]

Originally Posted by RED VAN HOT

It seems to me that lower round picks have to prove themselves to a far greater extent than the higher picks. They must produce sufficiently to overcome the perception of having a limited ceiling. If a high pick had put up Dorn's numbers he would have received an invite to ST. To some extent the limited success of lower round picks is in part a self-fulfilling prophecy.

I don't disagree, but minor league numbers are only part of the equation. Brandon Larson put up some good minor league numbers. Scouts are pretty good at identifying AAAA types. They see holes in the swings that don't get exposed in the minors. I'm not saying that's the case with Dorn, but it's worth keeping in mind.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by osuceltic

I don't disagree, but minor league numbers are only part of the equation. Brandon Larson put up some good minor league numbers. Scouts are pretty good at identifying AAAA types. They see holes in the swings that don't get exposed in the minors. I'm not saying that's the case with Dorn, but it's worth keeping in mind.

No. He didn't.

Larson was old for every level he "dominated". He was crushing AAA at age 26. At age 24, Larson was posting an .803 OPS at AA, and a .852 OPS in 17 games at AAA. Usually heavy SLG and weaker OBP's too. .346 minor league OBP lifetime.

Dorn should start the year at AAA at 24 years old.

I thought Dorn was the gem of the 2006 draft. Offensively he's out performed every other Red drafted in 2006, and was the best offensive player on his team every year he wasn't a teammate with Jay Bruce.

I think once he gets the call (July?) he'll be the Reds LF for 7-8 years.

[dunner13]

If dorn takes left this year, stubbs center this year or next and bruce right then why do we need to go get abreu or dye? Just wait for these guys to develop and some our money for somewhere else.

[OnBaseMachine]

More late-round finds:

Chris Dickerson, cf, Reds: Dickerson played three years at UNLV, where he hit .243/.378/.373 in 50 games during his junior year. Though scouts liked Dickerson’s athleticism, his ability to translate that into big league hitting skills dropped him to the 16th round in 2003. After debuting his draft year in Rookie-level Billings, Dickerson spent four years in full-season ball before his big 2008 campaign in which he hit .287/.384/.479 in 97 games for Triple-A Louisville. His brief major league cameo was just as impressive, as the 26-year-old hit .304/.413/.608 in 31 games. Dickerson cut his strikeout rate slightly last year in his second tour of Triple-A, but he’s still a strikeout-heavy player. Given that Dickerson turns 27 in April, he might not have too many good years ahead of him, but he should be a big league contributor in some way.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=2194

[medford]

speaking of Doc, which Doc are you talking about Paul Daugherty (did I misspell that?) or Doc Rogers???

The reason I ask, was I was once heading to Lowes, listening to extra innings w/ Doc Rogers. The talk of the future came up, when somebody threw out the name Stubbs, and somebody else that we're all familar with. Doc Rogers had no idea who Stubbs was. I sat there shocked/dissapointed that the host of Extra Innings would have no idea who the reds top draft pick just a few years earlier was. The other guy might have been Daryl Thompson, or something along those lines. A little more forgivable, but someone hosting extra innings should have at least recognized the name.

If its Daugherty, then I understand why he wouldn't know much about Danny Dorn. While it wouldn't hurt to know more about the reds minor leagues, I doubt he gets many calls about it, other than the top level stars like Bailey, Bruce, etc..