Your NCAA Upset Special

[LoganBuck]

Originally Posted by cincrazy

I would love for you to be right, but I just don't see it. OSU doesn't rebound well and they tend to get turnover happy, and Louisville has the size to kill them on the boards, and Pitino has a bust for him in the Hall of Fame due in part to his pressure defense. Advancing over Siena is no automatic, but if they do, I'm afraid that Louisville will embarrass them.

Agree, but in the NCAA a player like Diebler is the difference between getting blown out, and winning an upset. He has the ability to go off. In order for them to win he has to score at least 20. Otherwise there is no way, unless Louisville goes out and shoots under 40% for the game, which is possible.

I love the tourney. We can debate all these games, and then some chic upset pick will get blown away, and another team with absolutely no chance whatsoever will win.

[cincrazy]

Originally Posted by LoganBuck

Agree, but in the NCAA a player like Diebler is the difference between getting blown out, and winning an upset. He has the ability to go off. In order for them to win he has to score at least 20. Otherwise there is no way, unless Louisville goes out and shoots under 40% for the game, which is possible.

I love the tourney. We can debate all these games, and then some chic upset pick will get blown away, and another team with absolutely no chance whatsoever will win.

I agree, if Diebler has a good game they have a shot. But I think the problem with relying on that is, Louisville plays very aggressive man to man, and most of Diebler's success comes against the zone. In general this year, he's had a problem getting his shot off against teams that can blanket him one on one.

[Reds Fanatic]

I like Utah State over Marquette. Marquette has struggled since Dominic James has been injured and Utah State has a solid team.

Western Kentucky and VCU are 2 other picks that I would not even really consider major upsets.

[joshnky]

Originally Posted by cincrazy

I agree, if Diebler has a good game they have a shot. But I think the problem with relying on that is, Louisville plays very aggressive man to man, and most of Diebler's success comes against the zone. In general this year, he's had a problem getting his shot off against teams that can blanket him one on one.

Louisville switches defenses a lot but they are primarily a 2-3 zone team. However, they play a very aggressive zone that crowds the three point line. They couldn't have beaten long range teams like Villanova, Syracuse, and WVU if they didn't.

IMO, the key to beating them is depth in the back court. If your team has the depth of ball handlers to match up with the four guards UofL throws out there in the full court press you can win. Ever since the Notre Dame game they've bludgeoned teams with huge 2nd half runs when the ball handlers began to tire. They've beaten teams with good guard play as well but no one will upset them if they can't handle the press for an entire game.

[BRM]

Originally Posted by joshnky

Louisville switches defenses a lot but they are primarily a 2-3 zone team. However, they play a very aggressive zone that crowds the three point line. They couldn't have beaten long range teams like Villanova, Syracuse, and WVU if they didn't.

IMO, the key to beating them is depth in the back court. If your team has the depth of ball handlers to match up with the four guards UofL throws out there in the full court press you can win. Ever since the Notre Dame game they've bludgeoned teams with huge 2nd half runs when the ball handlers began to tire. They've beaten teams with good guard play as well but no one will upset them if they can't handle the press for an entire game.

And those four guards are relentless with their pressure. Especially Knowles and McGee. They will definitely wear out a team's ballhandlers. If you are a fan of defense, Louisville is definitely the squad for you. I love watching them play.

[cumberlandreds]

Originally Posted by BRM

And those four guards are relentless with their pressure. Especially Knowles and McGee. They will definitely wear out a team's ballhandlers. If you are a fan of defense, Louisville is definitely the squad for you. I love watching them play.

For the first time in Pitinos tenure at UL I think this resembles his UK teams of the 90's. They have relentless pressure that just wears down whoever they play. I'll be surprised if they aren't in the final four and in fact I'm picking them to win it.

[LoganBuck]

Originally Posted by cincrazy

I agree, if Diebler has a good game they have a shot. But I think the problem with relying on that is, Louisville plays very aggressive man to man, and most of Diebler's success comes against the zone. In general this year, he's had a problem getting his shot off against teams that can blanket him one on one.

I would look for him more in transition and coming off screens. But totally understand what you are saying. I'm just saying it is possible.

[Caveat Emperor]

Also, digging deeper into the numbers, I find a lot to like about Arizona's matchup against Utah.

[cincrazy]

Originally Posted by LoganBuck

I would look for him more in transition and coming off screens. But totally understand what you are saying. I'm just saying it is possible.

I agree . After all, Louisville did lose to Notre Dame by like THIRTY FREAKIN POINTS, and the Bucks beat Notre Dame.

[bucksfan2]

If OSU wins they have a decent shot at UL. OSU's main problem has been defending the 3 point line. They got burned by teams who were less talented but moved the ball around and over loaded a certain zone and hit 3's. OSU would be a scary 8 seed because they have the talent to compete with anyone.

[Boston Red]

Louisville/Siena would be a fun matchup. Louisville would likely kill them, but it would be entertaining as hell given the way both teams like to play.

[Caveat Emperor]

Originally Posted by bucksfan2

If OSU wins they have a decent shot at UL. OSU's main problem has been defending the 3 point line. They got burned by teams who were less talented but moved the ball around and over loaded a certain zone and hit 3's. OSU would be a scary 8 seed because they have the talent to compete with anyone.

No offense, but I think OSU would do well to keep the game close.

The only thing that keeps me from thinking this game will be a laugher is the fact that it is effectively a home game for OSU -- being played less than an hour from home in front of (likely) a very partisan OSU crowd.

[joshnky]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

No offense, but I think OSU would do well to keep the game close.

The only thing that keeps me from thinking this game will be a laugher is the fact that it is effectively a home game for OSU -- being played less than an hour from home in front of (likely) a very partisan OSU crowd.

I know this is true but wonder how much it will be mitigated by a large number of very excited Louisville fans making the trip up combined with the Pitt fans who will likely want to cheer for the team from their conference.

Also, when people discuss the Notre Dame loss they fail to recognize that Terrence Williams was injured and ineffective during that game. His wrist really limited his shooting and overall play and he probably shouldn't have played. If he would have sat it would still be a loss but largely overlooked.

Notre Dame was fired up, at home, and probably would have won regardless but the game would have been much closer if TWill had put in his normal stat line. He is the engine of this team and without him they're mediocre.

One final thought: Louisville has been shooting the three recently like the UK teams of the 90s which has fueled their recent offensive success. If they stay hot they will win it all. What worries me is that they might fall in love with the three and Clark and Williams spend more time outside the line launching long jumpers which isn't their strongest attribute.

[Hoosier Red]

Can we stop the wailing and gnashing of teeth due to tOSU being one hour closer than Louisville.

Freedom Hall to UD Arena.
155 mi – about 2 hours 28 mins

Schottenstein Center to UD Arena
75.0 mi – about 1 hour 21 mins

If you can't drive 2 1/2 hours to see the #1 team in the country you deserve to get beat.

[bucksfan2]

Originally Posted by Hoosier Red

Can we stop the wailing and gnashing of teeth due to tOSU being one hour closer than Louisville.

Freedom Hall to UD Arena.
155 mi – about 2 hours 28 mins

Schottenstein Center to UD Arena
75.0 mi – about 1 hour 21 mins

If you can't drive 2 1/2 hours to see the #1 team in the country you deserve to get beat.

If they both play here is what you will see happen. Louisville will have more team fans than OSU. What plays in OSU's favor is that they are an underdog and also are playing in Ohio. Dayton isn't like Cincinnati where there are a mix of fans, Dayton is primarily a UD or OSU town. If the game stays closer OSU will have a majority of the fans.

The reason I think it could be a good game is that OSU has that top tier talent. They may not be as talented as UL but they have the talent to match up. Throw in a one and done scenario as well as a particular player being hot/cold and you could could have the makings for an exciting game.