Your NCAA Upset Special

[WVRed]

Originally Posted by Boston Red

Chaney has been retired for at least three years. How do you feel about Fran Dunphy?

Shows how much I follow the Atlantic 10.

[Caveat Emperor]

Originally Posted by DTCromer

Gonzaga is too soft to make it to the Final Four. Any team that gets labeled as "They have the talent, buuuuut. . .. " never makes it there.

I feel the same way about Wake Forest -- even though I think they have a very legitimate shot to take Louisville out should such a matchup occur.

[Slyder]

Originally Posted by cincrazy

I agree . After all, Louisville did lose to Notre Dame by like THIRTY FREAKIN POINTS, and the Bucks beat Notre Dame.

And Louisville beat WVU and WVU stepped on and CRUSHED OSU at OSU so?

[bucksfan2]

I really think its either UL or UConn who go down first, if not both. For some reason I just don't see UL going very far. Its nothing against UL I just got a gut feeling.

[cumberlandreds]

Here's a photo article of past tournament upsets. It's their top 25 upsets.


http://www.prepticket.com/album/8232...92:Photo:51477

[TeamSelig]

What do you guys think of Missouri? I've got them slated to beat Memphis, but I'm not sure if that is smart. I'm not sure why, but I really don't like Memphis. Mainly because they really haven't played many good teams.

[Cyclone792]

Originally Posted by WVRed

Top Five First Round Upsets:

Arizona (12) over Utah (5). I have a hard time with Arizona making the tournament, but they have a favorable matchup with Utah.

UCU (11) over UCLA (6). UCLA hasn't been consistent all season and Anthony Grant has knocked off top teams in the tourney before.

Western Kentucky (12) over Illinois (5). This has more to due with the injury to Frazier, and this is the same WKU who beat Louisville earlier in the season.

Temple (11) over Arizona St. (6). Harden vs Christmas will be fun to watch, but Az St hasn't really lived up to the hype.

USC (10) over Boston College (7). USC has gelled at the right time and if Gibson, Hackett, and DeRozan have a good game, they can pull this one off.

One that I am afraid to pull the trigger on:

Stephen F. Austin (14) over Syracuse (3). I believe that even with the rest, Syracuse will not be able to recover from the Big East tournament run. That being said, I don't think Stephen F. Austin will be the team to do it.

Second round upset:

West Virginia (6) over Kansas (3). Kansas doesn't have the same team as last year and West Virginia plays a very physical style of play that will give the Jayhawks problems.

Others I am afraid to pick:

Western Kentucky (11) over Gonzaga (3). I think WKU could pull this one off, but location is going to be critical in this one.

Ohio State (8) over Louisville (1). This could be a tougher game than what people expect, but the Buckeyes will have a home court advantage. Samuels and Mullens will cancel each other out and if Matta can find a way to contain Terrence Williams and Earl Clark both offensively and on the boards, Ohio State could possibly win.

Minnesota (10) over Duke (2). I know this will draw a laugh or two, but Tubby has managed to outcoach Coach K before during the NCAA tournament. Minnesota doesn't have the players Tubby had in 1998 at Kentucky, but to be honest, this Duke team isn't exactly the same one either. Again, with Gonzaga, location wins out.

I think WVRed just sneaked a peak at my bracket and stole my upsets for this post.

Of those you listed, I have:

1) Arizona over Utah
2) VCU over UCLA
3) Western Kentucky over Illinois
4) USC over Boston College

I do have Arizona State over Temple though. And you didn't list it, but I have Maryland over Cal.

Of course, I also have West Virginia over Kansas, which you listed as well.

[Cyclone792]

Originally Posted by TeamSelig

What do you guys think of Missouri? I've got them slated to beat Memphis, but I'm not sure if that is smart. I'm not sure why, but I really don't like Memphis. Mainly because they really haven't played many good teams.

My take on Missouri is it seems like they've struggled away from home. So with that little bit of twisted logic, I've got them getting bounced in the second round by Marquette (even with James out).

[Caveat Emperor]

Originally Posted by bucksfan2

I really think its either UL or UConn who go down first, if not both. For some reason I just don't see UL going very far. Its nothing against UL I just got a gut feeling.

UL has, in my mind, the toughest road to the Elite Eight of any #1 seeds, due to the fact that they face a potential matchup with Wake Forest in the Sweet 16. Wake's been a slightly schizo team this year, but they've beaten some great teams, are battle-tested through the ACC, and can play with anyone in the country.

If any of the big seeds are going to make early exits, my money is on UL.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

USC (#10), Arizona (#12), and Tennessee (#9) are the only lower seeded teams that aren't underdogs by Vegas.

USC -2
Tenn -2
Arizona - pk

[bucksfan2]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

UL has, in my mind, the toughest road to the Elite Eight of any #1 seeds, due to the fact that they face a potential matchup with Wake Forest in the Sweet 16. Wake's been a slightly schizo team this year, but they've beaten some great teams, are battle-tested through the ACC, and can play with anyone in the country.

If any of the big seeds are going to make early exits, my money is on UL.

I had always thought UL was a 2 seed heading into the tourny. It surprised me to see them get the #1 overall seed to say the least. And I agree they have the toughest road to the elite 8 but I think it starts in the second round. I know I am being somewhat of a homer but OSU has a team that is loaded with talent. It has underperformed but has quite a bit of top tier talent as well as a very good 3 point shooter. If they get past OSU they then could face Wake. A team that was #1 in the country at one point and again is loaded with top tier talent. In a one and done, 40 minutes all out, anything can happen especially when you play talented teams with good coaching. The bottom half of the bracket doesn't scare me as much for UL. MSU is an ok 2 seed and Kansas looks prime to be upset again, they are very young.

What do you guys think of Oklahoma. IMO Griffen was by far the best player in college basketball this season. Until his concussion, I have to admit I haven't watched him play since, they were my pick to go all the way. I just have a hard time betting against them, especially with UNC and Lawson's toe problems.

[cincrazy]

Originally Posted by Slyder

And Louisville beat WVU and WVU stepped on and CRUSHED OSU at OSU so?

Just a little bit of light-hearted humor. Man do people get cranky REAL quick around here when it comes to anything OSU related.

[WVRed]

Originally Posted by Cyclone792

I think WVRed just sneaked a peak at my bracket and stole my upsets for this post.

Of those you listed, I have:

1) Arizona over Utah
2) VCU over UCLA
3) Western Kentucky over Illinois
4) USC over Boston College

I do have Arizona State over Temple though. And you didn't list it, but I have Maryland over Cal.

Of course, I also have West Virginia over Kansas, which you listed as well.

To be honest, I have three 10 seeds making it to the second round. Minnesota, Maryland, and USC. Clemson is the only 7 I have advancing.

[Danny Serafini]

For comparison purposes, I run a small pool, I've got 44 sheets in right now, and here are some of the popular and unpopular upset picks:

In the Midwest, Arizona is getting some attention, though not quite as much as I thought. Utah is a 31-13 pick. Few people are carrying them past Wake though. Siena is getting no action for a #9, but that's to be expected with all the entries being from Ohio. USC is a slim favorite (24-20) over BC despite being the lower seed. Kansas isn't getting much of a chance against Michigan St. later on, the top two seeds seem to be holding.

In the west, the #10 is again favored over the #7 by a 24-20 vote, this time Maryland over Cal. A&M is a slight favorite over BYU despite being the lower seed. Here's a weird one, despite the well known 5/12 upset alert, and the fact that people loving calling the 12 for an upset, there isn't a single person thus far taking N. Iowa over Purdue. I've never seen a 5 so heavily favored over a 12. Utah St. is getting a fair amount of action, but not a ton. Memphis has become the overwhelming favorite to win the region, getting twice as many picks as Connecticut.

The east is looking extremely chalky. Pitt has more Final Four picks than any team in any region. Texas is a big favorite in the 7/10 game, not many believers in Minnesota. VCU is getting some first round attention, but I thought they would be a little trendier pick (it's 32-12 UCLA). A couple of upsets later on according to seeds, Florida St. has emerged as a slight favorite over Xavier, and Villanova a slight favorite over Duke.

In the south, Butler is a decent sized favorite to upset LSU in the 8/9 game. Michigan is getting little action in the 7/10 game despite the local team effect, it seems even Michigan fans aren't confident in that game. W. Kentucky is a somewhat trendy pick. Akron however is not. Usually there's at least a couple of MAC homer picks, being in the heart of MAC country here, but not a single person believes in the Zips. Temple is getting ignored, as was Dayton as the 11 in its region, no confidence in the A-10 I guess. Gonzaga is a huge favorite over Illinois later, and it's chalk from there on.

Once you get to the Final Four it's a jumble. The only thing that stands out is that Connecticut is completely unloved as a #1 seed. Only 2 out of 44 have them winning, fewer than #2 seeds Memphis and Michigan St. Louisville is the leader with 11.