Juan Francisco's K rate

[Scrap Irony]

And with those nine homers, still only a 750 OPS.

Francisco is Samone at this point. Perhaps he becomes something else as he matures. More likely, he's not.

[HokieRed]

OPS right around 1.000 for the last ten games.

[Homer Bailey]

Originally Posted by HokieRed

OPS right around 1.000 for the last ten games.

SSS

[dougdirt]

Here is what matters for Francisco - 7 walks, 46 strikeouts and 195 plate appearances. No one can has those kind of rates and be successful in the majors. He either needs to walk quite a bit more or strike out quite a bit less.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Here is what matters for Francisco - 7 walks, 46 strikeouts and 195 plate appearances. No one can has those kind of rates and be successful in the majors. He either needs to walk quite a bit more or strike out quite a bit less.

Francisco's K rate declined in A ball over time, and it will in AA ball. Right now, with 46 Ks in 45 games, he would K about 160 times -- not outrageously high for a power guy. But again, based on history it will get better.

His walks are unacceptably low. So are Neftali Soto's -- he has five walks in 155 at bats this year. But JF has 9 homers, 33 RBIs, a .741 OPS. Soto's OPS is .678 with 4 homers and 13 RBI yet he's supposedly the surefire great prospect. Francisco always seems to knock in runs indicating that he makes contact when it counts.

Both guys are young for their leagues and are just settling in after advancing a level. Both will be major leaguers. In Francisco's case, he is currently hot. Let's see where his numbers go over the summer.

[HokieRed]

Doug's identified the number one problem with JF very clearly: walk rate. His K rate is in a reasonable range for somebody with his kind of power. And Homer, I understand that the last ten games are SSS. My comment was made only to suggest that in evaluating minor leaguers you have to look at trend and the ability to adjust to levels. That's one thing I've liked about Stubbs, for instance, all along: he's consistently shown he can improve his game as he's moved up through the levels. JF bears watching in the same way; he needs to show he can walk more and thus push up his OPS. If he can become more selective, too, we'll need to see if that results in less or even better power numbers.

[lollipopcurve]

Francisco is Samone at this point.

Not really a good comp. Peters never was effective outside of low A ball. A stiff defensively at 1B. Francisco is a much, much better prospect. He's got his flaws, but he's still 21 and in AA.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by HokieRed

Doug's identified the number one problem with JF very clearly: walk rate. His K rate is in a reasonable range for somebody with his kind of power. And Homer, I understand that the last ten games are SSS. My comment was made only to suggest that in evaluating minor leaguers you have to look at trend and the ability to adjust to levels. That's one thing I've liked about Stubbs, for instance, all along: he's consistently shown he can improve his game as he's moved up through the levels. JF bears watching in the same way; he needs to show he can walk more and thus push up his OPS. If he can become more selective, too, we'll need to see if that results in less or even better power numbers.

Stubbs has improved, but to accomplish this he has stopped hitting for power. I haven't seen him personally, but it's obvious from his numbers that to avoid Ks and to improve his on base skills he's shortened his swing or stopped trying to blast the ball. We'll see if the power comes back eventually or if this is a permanent change.

Francisco hasn't gone this route as yet. Having followed his numbers, he does seem to have the knack to make sufficient contact to be a .270s BA hitter at lower levels and hit for great power. The fly in the ointment, of course, is selectivity and walks.

Sometimes I wish there were no minor league statistics because they are often assumed to be an end product rather than developmental numbers. We'll see on JF, he's obviously no sure thing. But as I've said many times here, his ceiling is sky high and given his youth he's highly valuable.

I also note that JF makes his share of errors in the field so that is another potential issue, although he reputedly has a great arm.

[Scrap Irony]

Stubbs has a 450 slugging percentage and is among the IL league leaders in doubles. While his HR stroke is MIA, those doubles could eventually turn into HR at the major league level, especially considering his likely home ballpark.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Kc61

Francisco's K rate declined in A ball over time, and it will in AA ball. Right now, with 46 Ks in 45 games, he would K about 160 times -- not outrageously high for a power guy. But again, based on history it will get better.

Sure, it may get better.... but he has to get to a 10-15% K rate in order to bring in some value with such a low walk rate. His history doesn't suggest he can get it that low. Right now he hasn't been below 23% since 2006 in Billings.

His walks are unacceptably low. So are Neftali Soto's -- he has five walks in 155 at bats this year. But JF has 9 homers, 33 RBIs, a .741 OPS. Soto's OPS is .678 with 4 homers and 13 RBI yet he's supposedly the surefire great prospect. Francisco always seems to knock in runs indicating that he makes contact when it counts.

The differences between the two are pretty telling though. One guy is playing in the FSL, one guy in a park where its 309 down his pull line. One guy strikes out 24% of the time he steps to the plate with a real low walk rate. The other guy strikes out 12% of the time he steps to the plate. So one guy is rocking a 7/46 walk to strikeout ratio (thats a 6.6 to 1 rate) while the other guy is rocking a 5/20 walk to strikeout ratio (4 to 1). Thats a significantly large difference with Soto having the much stronger of the two.

Both guys are young for their leagues and are just settling in after advancing a level. Both will be major leaguers. In Francisco's case, he is currently hot. Let's see where his numbers go over the summer.

It has nothing to do with hot or not. It has to do with improving his skillset. Nothing he has done has suggested a change in his skill set. He still can't walk to save his life and he still strikes out 7 times as much as he walks. No one in the history of baseball has anything resembling a solid year, much less career with anything over a 5 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio. He either needs to walk a lot more, or strike out a lot less. He won't be successful without doing one of the two and he hasn't shown anything resembling improvement in two years in either category.

[dougdirt]

As we can see in his month to month splits for his Walk rate (BB/PA) and his K Rate (K/PA), his strikeout rate has gone down... at a very slow rate over the last two years, but has not done much improvement from the start of High A until now. His walk rate however has not improved at all. It has stayed almost exactly the same. There are no improvements there to speak of really.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

The differences between the two are pretty telling though. One guy is playing in the FSL, one guy in a park where its 309 down his pull line. One guy strikes out 24% of the time he steps to the plate with a real low walk rate. The other guy strikes out 12% of the time he steps to the plate. So one guy is rocking a 7/46 walk to strikeout ratio (thats a 6.6 to 1 rate) while the other guy is rocking a 5/20 walk to strikeout ratio (4 to 1). Thats a significantly large difference with Soto having the much stronger of the two.



.

Soto Ks less. He doesn't walk more. But how about actual production?

Soto is .265/.297/.381/.678 with 4 doubles, 1 triple, 4 HR, 13 RBI.

Francisco is .251/.278/.465/.741 with 9 doubles, 2 triples, 9 homers, 33 RBI.

Last year, at Soto's current High A level, Francisco was .277/.303/.496/.799 with 34 doubles, 5 triples, 23 homers, 92 RBI.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Kc61

Soto Ks less. He doesn't walk more. But how about actual production?

Soto is .265/.297/.381/.678 with 4 doubles, 1 triple, 4 HR, 13 RBI.

Francisco is .251/.278/.465/.741 with 9 doubles, 2 triples, 9 homers, 33 RBI.

Last year, at Soto's current High A level, Francisco was .277/.303/.496/.799 with 34 doubles, 5 triples, 23 homers, 92 RBI.

Soto had a rough April. In May he is hitting .320/.369/.493 in May with 5 walks and 10 strikeouts. Francisco had exactly 0 months with an OBP over .336 last season in Sarasota. He had 1 month where he hit over .290. He had 1 month where his K/BB was better than 5.4 to 1, and it was 4 to 1. Soto currently has a 2 to 1 rate in May. July and August were the only months where Francisco had a SLG over .500 in the FSL. Maybe the weather did something? Soto hasn't gotten to those months yet.

Actual production in the minors doesn't mean much. Its about refining your skillset to you can have actual production in the majors. Soto's skillset, while somewhat unique, is much more likely to provide actual production at the major league level than Francisco's. Thats the production I am more concerned with.

[OnBaseMachine]

Let's also remember that Soto just had 218 atbats in Dayton last season. I agreed with the move to start him at Sarasota, but it could be argued that he was rushed a bit.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Soto had a rough April. In May he is hitting .320/.369/.493 in May with 5 walks and 10 strikeouts. Francisco had exactly 0 months with an OBP over .336 last season in Sarasota. He had 1 month where he hit over .290. He had 1 month where his K/BB was better than 5.4 to 1, and it was 4 to 1. Soto currently has a 2 to 1 rate in May. July and August were the only months where Francisco had a SLG over .500 in the FSL. Maybe the weather did something? Soto hasn't gotten to those months yet.

Actual production in the minors doesn't mean much. Its about refining your skillset to you can have actual production in the majors. Soto's skillset, while somewhat unique, is much more likely to provide actual production at the major league level than Francisco's. Thats the production I am more concerned with.

I see two talented players with different offensive skillsets. One has shown the ability to hit for huge power and knock in runs -- not just homers but a doubles machine as well. The other has shown the ability to hit for high average but with far less power so far.

Neither walks. Both have defensive issues.

One guy is credited as a huge potential offensive star, the other is repeatedly underestimated. That's how I see it.