2009 International signing period

[Mario-Rijo]

Cards to offer $4 mil. to D.R. 16-year-old?

Wagner Mateo just turned 16, and the Cardinals are set to offer the center fielder a $4 million bonus to sign from the Dominican Republic, the Post-Gazette reports.

Well done, kid.

Cards' farm director Jeff Luhnow told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, "We have a way to evaluate the player, determine his potential and then also decide what he is worth to us. We're comfortable with how we're able to do that."

Turns out he was worth $4 million, just $250,000 shy of the record bonus given to a Dominican player.

Baseball America's Ben Badler wrote of Luhnow, "His body is already relatively mature so he might move to a corner outfield position, but scouts I've spoken with say his bat is advanced. He has a good feel for hitting and has shown the ability to hit balls out of the park to all fields."

Badler added that, although outfield prospect Miguel Angel Sano is considered the top Dominican prospect, there really isn't a difference between Sano, Mateo and catcher Gary Sanchez.

However, that doesn't mean Sano -- whom the Pirates are looking to sign -- won't use the Mateo deal as leverage, since he is widely considered the top Dominican prospect.

[OnBaseMachine]

Here's a small scouting report on Christopher Cabrera:

Good body, no effort mechanics, if his age (he was 15 when I saw him) is right then he has an incredible arm, I have seen him hit 93.

Clean arm action a bit long in the back, his breaking pitches need more work, he is still raw. His trainer is Mon from Bani.

http://dominicanbaseballuniverse.blo....html#comments

Baseball Prospectus should have some info up on Christopher Cabrera and Jose Pena tomorrow.

[aubashbrother]

how does a 15 year old hit 93 good lord .

[11larkin11]

I haven't heard anything on Gary Sanchez yet. You got anything on him OBM?

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by 11larkin11

I haven't heard anything on Gary Sanchez yet. You got anything on him OBM?

He's a lock to be a Yankee.

[travisgrimes]

hearing Cabrera and Pena are Reds locks at this point... Mateo will accept Cards offer if no one outbids which I highly doubt they do..... now the Sano situation could go anywhere because there are two different stories out there... one states that the Pirates are seeing who they take in the draft 1st and how much they will have to pay before anything happens with Sano... IF the Pirates have to pay more than expected to sign their draft pick they will do so and discontinue their pursuit of Sano.... HOWEVER another source which is mlbtraderumors.com says the Pirates plan on signing Sano and their 1st round pick no matter what.... I think best case scenario is obviously Sano, Cabrera and Pena which would match last year signings with Duran, Rodriguez and Guillon.... two big time hitters and a pitcher but dont be surprised if Sano ends up with Pirates and Reds stick to Cabrera and Pena.

[fearofpopvol1]

Originally Posted by travisgrimes

hearing Cabrera and Pena are Reds locks at this point... Mateo will accept Cards offer if no one outbids which I highly doubt they do..... now the Sano situation could go anywhere because there are two different stories out there... one states that the Pirates are seeing who they take in the draft 1st and how much they will have to pay before anything happens with Sano... IF the Pirates have to pay more than expected to sign their draft pick they will do so and discontinue their pursuit of Sano.... HOWEVER another source which is mlbtraderumors.com says the Pirates plan on signing Sano and their 1st round pick no matter what.... I think best case scenario is obviously Sano, Cabrera and Pena which would match last year signings with Duran, Rodriguez and Guillon.... two big time hitters and a pitcher but dont be surprised if Sano ends up with Pirates and Reds stick to Cabrera and Pena.

where are you getting your information from?

[travisgrimes]

my uncle was one of Jose Rijo's advisers when he 1st came into the league with the Yankees... he has always kept in touch through the years with friends down in the DR like instructors and scouts... he tells me everything he hears including Sano isnt humble but rather arrogant and has Wily Mo Pena disease which is great power but cant hit a breaking ball which is something Jose Pena can do...

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by travisgrimes

hearing Cabrera and Pena are Reds locks at this point... Mateo will accept Cards offer if no one outbids which I highly doubt they do..... now the Sano situation could go anywhere because there are two different stories out there... one states that the Pirates are seeing who they take in the draft 1st and how much they will have to pay before anything happens with Sano... IF the Pirates have to pay more than expected to sign their draft pick they will do so and discontinue their pursuit of Sano.... HOWEVER another source which is mlbtraderumors.com says the Pirates plan on signing Sano and their 1st round pick no matter what.... I think best case scenario is obviously Sano, Cabrera and Pena which would match last year signings with Duran, Rodriguez and Guillon.... two big time hitters and a pitcher but dont be surprised if Sano ends up with Pirates and Reds stick to Cabrera and Pena.

So Pittsburgh is the wildcard as we have expected. I found this on a Pirates Blog, just speculation by the blogger mostly but some GM quotes worthy of note and a thought or 2 by the blogger.

For the second time this week at BP, it's suggested that the Pirates might go a little cheap with their first round pick in order to have enough money to sign Miguel Sano (this time Kevin Goldstein suggests as much in a chat, if you're not a BP subscriber and can't see the link). I'm pretty sure the Pirates are suggesting the same thing here, but I really can't wade through the Littlefield-esque language to figure out what Huntington means.

"We're not going to walk away from a guy because of his agent or financial demands only, and it's going to be a long summer," Pirates general manager Neal Huntington said this week, amid preparations for the draft. "Some guys you evaluate at X, and they want X times 7, and other guys you evaluate at X, and they want X times 2. All else being equal, you go with X times 2."

It seems to me that that's what you say when you're planning on drafting a guy at least partially based on the ability to sign him.

So what does this mean, exactly? Some quick back of the envelope math says the Pirates spent about $10 million between Latin America and the draft last year; their draft hit slightly above $9 million and I don't think their Dominican and Venezuelan signings totaled up to more than $1 million (correct me if I'm wrong here). A huge chunk of that was Pedro Alvarez, who signed for about $6 million after all the legal wrangling was wrapped up, meaning the Pirates spent somewhere in the neighborhood of $3 million on other draft picks last year.

Now, let's assume that with the fourth pick, the Pirates take Aaron Crow, who refused to sign with the Nats last year for slot money for the ninth pick ($2.15 million) and supposedly turned down an offer from the Nationals for $3.5 million, supposedly about a million less than Crow wanted. By contrast, last year's fourth overall pick, Brian Matusz, received about a $3.2 million signing bonus and pro contract, which (I think) is slightly above slot. We're all familiar with the two players taken in the four-slot the two years prior to Matusz; Danny Moskos signed for $2.5 million and Brad Lincoln signed for $2.75 million.

If we assume that picking someone like Crow, Alex White, Grant Green, or Donovan Tate (the best high school outfield prospect who also has an offer from Butch Davis to come play football in Chapel Hill) will cost $4 million or more, while drafting someone like Kyle Gibson could cost $3 million, do the Pirates make that move? I feel like that's what Huntington's setting us up for with that quote, taking a player that's rated slightly lower and saying they valued him the same as the guys who were left on the board.

Of course, there's not really any consensus at all on who the best prospects are after Strasburg and Ackley, so it'd be really hard to know that the Pirates were doing something like that. If we assume the Pirates' budget is roughly the same as last year's and we budget $4 million for Sano (and the bidding could go above that), the Pirates could have a lot less money to spend on low-round picks this year. The million dollars they could save on a first round pick could go towards signing another Quinton Miller in a late round.

Is that an acceptable path? We can certainly argue with capping the draft/Latin America budget, if that is indeed what happens. Why can't they spend a little more? Where else is the money being spent? And what happens if they do go cheap on the draft in June, only to watch Sano sign with someone else in July? That would certainly be a nightmare, both for the front office and the PR staff.

Of course, the key to remember is that we don't know what the Pirates are planning on doing right now. Since Littlefield's firing, Huntington, Coonelly, and their team have handled all of these kinds of situations properly, so why are we expecting them to screw things up now?

[OnBaseMachine]

Pirates Notebook: Record offer unlikely for Sano
Tuesday, June 02, 2009
By Dejan Kovacevic, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Do not expect the Pirates to shatter Major League Baseball's record bonus to sign elite Dominican prospect Miguel Angel Sano.

The team remains intensely interested in Sano, a 16-year-old shortstop/outfielder, and the same is known to be true in the reverse, as Sano, his family and agent Rob Plummer have forged a tight relationship with Latin American scouting director Rene Gayo. But there were strong indications from the team's front office yesterday that the $4.25 million bonus Oakland gave to Dominican pitcher Michael Inoa will not be the bar for an offer to Sano.

Rather, the Pirates plan to place a value on Sano as they do all players, by talent level -- which the team views as special -- and by the market. The Dominican market for 16-year-olds, as they see it, remains below the outlier bonus the Athletics gave Inoa, as the previous range for elite prospects had been mostly between $2 million and $3 million.

The Pirates would not need any financial infusion to produce a competitive offer for Sano, given that they spent $9.8 million on the amateur draft last year and surely will not rival that figure in the draft next week, given that no talent comparable to Pedro Alvarez will be available when they pick at No. 4 overall. Alvarez, No. 2 overall, took up $6.355 million of the total draft budget, and the recommended slot for No. 4 this year will be an estimated $2.5 million.

The first day that 16-year-old international prospects -- who, essentially, are free agents -- can sign is July 2.

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/09153...id=pirates.xml

[New Fever]

Bad news it doesn't look like the Reds are the favorites on any of the Top 20 Latin American prospects. I can't believe a team would spend over 7 million dollars (the most of any team last year) and then not sign any of the top 20 talents the next year.


6. Jose Pena: Projected Team/Bonus: Pena was the hottest name on the island after his showing in BP and against Team Canada, with over 15 teams said to be legitimately interested. The field has been narrowed after a hectic private workout schedule, with the Indians, Giants, and Brewers as the current favorites, although the Dodgers and Padres are also very interested. Pena’s bonus was expected to be around $500,000 just a few short weeks ago, but he now appears to be ensured of a seven-figure pay day, with estimates going as high as $1.5 million.


14. Chris Cabrera, RHP, Dominican Republic
Height/Weight: 6'1"/185
A number of teams have been chasing Cabrera, with eight clubs showing significant interest or getting private workouts recently. Cabrera has some projection, but he's shorter than many of the other July 2nd pitching prospects, making up for it with more polished stuff and command. He works at 90-91 with his fastball (touching 94), and shows promise with a slider and changeup that both grade out as average at times (with potential for more). The Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, Rangers, and Rays are all finalists for Cabrera, who should be looking at a bonus in the $500-700,000 range.

[OnBaseMachine]

I just saw that. It looks like those who said the Reds wouldn't sign anyone this year were correct. It looks like the Reds were all talk.

[ochoa30]

Originally Posted by New Fever

Bad news it doesn't look like the Reds are the favorites on any of the Top 20 Latin American prospects. I can't believe a team would spend over 7 million dollars (the most of any team last year) and then not sign any of the top 20 talents the next year.


6. Jose Pena: Projected Team/Bonus: Pena was the hottest name on the island after his showing in BP and against Team Canada, with over 15 teams said to be legitimately interested. The field has been narrowed after a hectic private workout schedule, with the Indians, Giants, and Brewers as the current favorites, although the Dodgers and Padres are also very interested. Pena’s bonus was expected to be around $500,000 just a few short weeks ago, but he now appears to be ensured of a seven-figure pay day, with estimates going as high as $1.5 million.


14. Chris Cabrera, RHP, Dominican Republic
Height/Weight: 6'1"/185
A number of teams have been chasing Cabrera, with eight clubs showing significant interest or getting private workouts recently. Cabrera has some projection, but he's shorter than many of the other July 2nd pitching prospects, making up for it with more polished stuff and command. He works at 90-91 with his fastball (touching 94), and shows promise with a slider and changeup that both grade out as average at times (with potential for more). The Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, Rangers, and Rays are all finalists for Cabrera, who should be looking at a bonus in the $500-700,000 range.

Hopefully they will spend big on the draft then. Very dissappointing for sure though.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

I just saw that. It looks like those who said the Reds wouldn't sign anyone this year were correct. It looks like the Reds were all talk.

Yet another sign that they got scurred and tightened their belts.

[OnBaseMachine]

From Kiley McDaniel:

I'll talk you off the ledge. The Reds were mentioned with a few of these players that have lots of teams on them, so they may still grab one of those guys. Keep in mind there are many top Latin prospects, even recent ones, who signed for a small bonus on July 2nd. Also, no list is perfect: there are some good players I didn't write about.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=9027