Willy Taveras - 2009 to date

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by Ltlabner

That was the part where I said, "his wheels and a small outfield helped his cause". He was able to get to a lot of the balls he got late starts and/or bad reads on. Doesn't change that he looked lost.

Also doesn't change that he's relying on a small outfield and his speed to compensate for a lack of natural instincts.

I get that he looks lost. I agree for the most part. But he's doing the job, according to the numbers. That's all that matters, right?

[Ltlabner]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

But he's doing the job, according to the numbers. That's all that matters, right?

Sure.

Until he looses a step or is just having an off day running wise.

Until he plays a stadium that has a larger outfield.

Until he plays a stadium with a funky outfield layout.

Until he plays a stadium with weirdo air currents.

He's getting the job done yes, but relying on your speed to compensate for mistakes does expose you to the risk of more errors down the road.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

I get that he looks lost. I agree for the most part. But he's doing the job, according to the numbers. That's all that matters, right?

I think the criticism stems from the premise that given enough time, a player's true skill level will emerge from the noise of randomness. So it's better to view a player through a prism of the best estimate of this true skill rather than through short swathes of playing time.

In other words, April is important but what really matters is April through October.

[wheels]

While I'm happy with his production on the 11th of May, I'm stilll wondering what those numbers will look like come September.

It could be a freakshow, or precipitous drop.

We shall see.

[Scrap Irony]

Got it. But, throughout his career, Taveras is an average to slightly above/below average CF. In a smaller home park, in fact, he's been an outstanding defensive OF. In his two Houston years, Taveras' UZR was 9.8 and 18.0 respectively. That's more than likely what he's going to do in Cincinnati, right?

In short, the home park dimensions and the player fit each other well.

This is one of those things Jocketty got no credit for, even from those that argued Taveras a decent OF option. Taveras looks to be a solid (to outstanding) defender in Cincinnati and a slightly below average in larger parks. That equals out to above average with the leather.

I'm guessing Taveras drops back down to earth with the bat and again forgets to take a walk. The Reds will be lucky, IMO, if Taveras OPSes 650, let alone 740. I'm also guessing he steals only around 40 bases this year.

But, when Jocketty signed him, I thought he'd be that bad all year. So what do I know? Less than Jocketty, for sure.

[M2]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

Except they aren't very common and easy to acquire.

I've got a Nyjer Morgan and Jeremy Reed that says otherwise.

[TRF]

Taveras is going to play 60+ more games on the road, and some of those in some big, strange parks. I watched every game against the Astros this year (rare that I get to see the Reds on TV) and he looks pretty bad in CF in regards to fly balls. I agree with the poster that says he breaks in the wrong direction 30% of the time. The smaller GABP helps him there, but I can see why he wasn't an elite defender, even with his speed, in Denver.

Offensively, his SLG has been as low as .306. When pitchers realize he can't hurt them with the bat, they can challenge him more. And he can't bunt every time out.

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

I get that he looks lost. I agree for the most part. But he's doing the job, according to the numbers. That's all that matters, right?

Well, except for yesterday when he misplayed a flyball into a double, which led to a three run inning.

I will say this. I've been impressed with his patience (3.98 P/PA) so far. Hopefully he can keep it up.

[kaldaniels]

Originally Posted by M2

I've got a Nyjer Morgan and Jeremy Reed that says otherwise.

Without looking at Reed, Morgan has been in the Pirates system since 2002. They didn't acquire him overnight in the offseason.

[M2]

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

Without looking at Reed, Morgan has been in the Pirates system since 2002. They didn't acquire him overnight in the offseason.

But you could have had him for some bellybutton lint that looked like Willie Stargell.

[Roy Tucker]

I've been a little surprised by his lack of agression in stealing a base. There have been many times where another base would help immensely and he doesn't seem to be looking for it.

Granted my memory isn't what it used to be, but I thought when we saw him in his stints with Houston and Colorado, he actively used his speed as a weapon. He just seems to be another guy on the Reds.

[kaldaniels]

Originally Posted by M2

But you could have had him for some bellybutton lint that looked like Willie Stargell.

Are you saying he was availible cheaply this past offseason? I'm not sure I'm reading you right.

[nate]

Originally Posted by M2

I've got a Nyjer Morgan and Jeremy Reed that says otherwise.

Dave Cameron had an interesting article stating that there's been a tremendous surge in CF talent.

Baseball is a highly cyclical environment. Over time, we see shifts in strengths between positions due to seemingly random patterns. In the mid-90s, MLB saw an influx of offensive talent at shortstop that surpassed any that had been seen before - Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Nomar Garciaparra, and Miguel Tejada pushed the SS position into new offensive territory.

Then, it shifted, and third base seemed to be the spot where talent was flowing. Adrian Beltre, Aramis Ramirez, Eric Chavez, Troy Glaus, Hank Blalock, and Mark Teixeira all arrived within a few years of one another.

There’s another one of these talent surges in process right now, and it’s taking place in center field. The amount of talent currently playing center field in major league baseball is just astounding. Here’s the list of CFs, aged 26 and younger, who have gotten playing time in the majors during the first month of the 2009 season.

Grady Sizemore, Cleveland, 26
Franklin Gutierrez, Seattle, 26
Michael Bourn, Houston, 26
Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston, 25
Chris Young, Arizona, 25
Denard Span, Minnesota, 25
Elijah Dukes, Washington, 25
Brett Gardner, New York, 25
B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay, 24
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles, 24
Melky Cabrera, New York, 24
Ryan Sweeney, Oakland, 24
Adam Jones, Baltimore, 23
Dexter Fowler, Colorado, 23
Carlos Gomez, Minnesota, 23
Colby Rasmus, St. Louis, 22
Cameron Maybin, Florida, 22
Jordan Schafer, Atlanta, 22

That’s 18 young center fielders headed towards the prime of their careers. Obviously, guys like Sizemore, Upton, Jones, and Kemp are on another level compared toBourn, Gardner, and Sweeney, but it’s still fairly easy to pick 10 or so of the guys off that list and call them future all-stars. Or, in a couple of cases, current all-stars.

This is just a ridiculous amount of talent all coming into age at the same time. Even moreso than the SS/3B waves mentioned earlier, this one contains both elite talents and a lot of depth. Half of the teams in major league baseball are in possession of a young, talented center fielder. Some of them will flame out while others will move to the corner OF spots, but overall, we’re looking at CF becoming a very strong position going forward for the next 5 to 10 years.

[TheNext44]

Originally Posted by M2

But you could have had him for some bellybutton lint that looked like Willie Stargell.

Which is more then the Reds gave up for Taveras. Cost the Reds $6M over two years to sign him, which he justifies if he produces 1.5-2 wins for them over those two years.

You can argue that there was no need to sign him, or that it would have been smarter to move Dickerson to CF and spend the money on say Abreu, but you can't argue that the Reds aren't currently getting back what they invested in him.

He should have been easy and cheap to acquire, and he was.

[M2]

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

Are you saying he was availible cheaply this past offseason? I'm not sure I'm reading you right.

Yes, that's what I'm saying.

Originally Posted by TheNext44

Which is more then the Reds gave up for Taveras. Cost the Reds $6M over two years to sign him, which he justifies if he produces 1.5-2 wins for them over those two years.

He's got a contract that will get him regular playing time and if that's the case, he needs to be a quality player. You won't find anyone else in the universe who cares less than me about your 1.5-2 theoretical wins. He sure as hell wasn't worth that last season or in 2006.

It all comes down to his OB. If it's above .350, he's doing enough of his job to keep it. If it's below .325 then the Reds could have found his level of speed and defense for the major league minimum.