Willy Taveras - 2009 to date

[wheels]

Once again.....

It's May.

The are NO forgone conclusions in May.

I'm happy with the way things are going, but at this point, there is more evidence pointing towards flukiness than greatness.

A career vs. five weeks.

I want to be wrong in the worst possible way, but I ain't no Kool Aid drinker, either.

Let's give it some more time, fellas.

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by remdog

I'll wait and see how the season plays out. It's not like we haven't seen this scenario before.

Rem

I don't disagree that this team could go in the tank, but I don't think that will be because of Walt's additions (with the possible exception of Owings).

One might argue that he "didn't do enough," and that's a fair argument, but this thread is about Taveras (and tangentially, who Walt "did" acquire); I'd say he's done an exceptional job with his acquisitions (especially when considering bang for buck value).

[TheNext44]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

Walt has so far been right about Nix, Hernandez, Taveras, Masset, Rhodes.

The guy's made a career out of stomping other teams' guts at the margins of his rosters. While other teams get 50 innings of Majewski, Jocketty's teams get 70 innings of Masset; while some teams get 350 ABs of Juan Castro, Jocketty's teams get the same number of ABs from guys like Nix or Placido Palanco. Status quo for him. I'm not feelin' the Walt-hate either.

I think this is right on the money.

We all talk about outliers and brush them off, saying since they don't fit the norm, we can't count on them. But isn't that what separates a good GM from a great GM? The ability to find guys who are outliers? Players who will break away from their projections and provide better production than expected?

Every GM can use stats to make the easy calls. The ones that win championships are the ones that can consistently find and get the players before they break through. Guys like Schurholtz, Epstein, Beane, and Jocketty do it too often, over too many years for it to be good luck. And guys like Bowden, Malone, Bavasi, and Wade fail at it too often for theirs to be bad luck.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by TheNext44

Completely agree. No definite conclusions until the end of the season at the earliest.

However...

From watching him, I can really see that he is not the hitter that his career stats says he is. As Doug pointed out, he does not have an alarming LD % or BAPIP, or Bunt %, in fact, those are around or even a bit lower than his career numbers. He basically is making more contact and seeing more pitches than usual. And even those are not at an unsustainable level.

This could be just from random variance due to the sample size, but it very well could be due to a changed approach. Watching him hit, my opinion is that it is the later. Well see...

Here's a list of things that are significantly better/different for Taveras in '09 than his career numbers:

XBH% and ISO
BB rate
K rate
contact rate
swinging significantly less
BB/K
GB% sig. lower
prowess with the leather


If this is sustainable, he's becoming a red dragon before our very eyes....

[remdog]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

I don't disagree that this team could go in the tank, but I don't think that will be because of Walt's additions (with the possible exception of Owings).

One might argue that he "didn't do enough," and that's a fair argument, but this thread is about Taveras (and tangentially, who Walt "did" acquire); I'd say he's done an exceptional job with his acquisitions (especially when considering bang for buck value).

Ironically, I liked the Owings acqusition. Yeah, it ment that we gave up Dunn but he was obviously not going to be in the Reds plans anyway.

I'm giving thought to dropping into Petco this Sunday to watch the Reds and Pads do battle. The one negative for me is that Arroyo is scheduled to start. I'd much rather watch any other Reds starter than Bronson. Ugg.

Rem

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by remdog

Ironically, I liked the Owings acqusition. Yeah, it ment that we gave up Dunn but he was obviously not going to be in the Reds plans anyway.

I'm giving thought to dropping into Petco this Sunday to watch the Reds and Pads do battle. The one negative for me is that Arroyo is scheduled to start. I'd much rather watch any other Reds starter than Bronson. Ugg.

Rem

It's probably a bit early to completely jettison Owings, but the early returns are pretty ugly, IMO.

And you're right, Bronson's untenable and I highly doubt there's going to be a major correction for him; I'd be stunned if the guy's ERA or FIP drops below 5.5 for the season.

[fearofpopvol1]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

Neither Morgan nor Reed has ever been a fulltime player either. It's an apple and trucks comparison.

Walt has so far been right about Nix, Hernandez, Taveras, Masset, Rhodes.

The guy's made a career out of stomping other teams' guts at the margins of his rosters. While other teams get 50 innings of Majewski, Jocketty's teams get 70 innings of Masset; while some teams get 350 ABs of Juan Castro, Jocketty's teams get the same number of ABs from guys like Nix or Placido Palanco. Status quo for him. I'm not feelin' the Walt-hate either.

He has been right SO FAR about those players. I personally thought the Lincoln signing was awful, but I guess you can't always be right.

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

He has been right SO FAR about those players. I personally thought the Lincoln signing was awful, but I guess you can't always be right.

What's good about him being right SO FAR is that none of them are signed for nine years--or even three. So they'll not destroy the team's future if they go south next season.

[Blitz Dorsey]

Time will tell about Willy's OBP and everything else offensively (and I am very encouraged). But I will say one thing about him that doesn't change: he seems like a good guy and his teammates like him. When interviewed, he is all about the team and winning. I just like the guy's attitude.

Add in the fact that he is more than getting it done offensively and I'm glad a lot of us were wrong about this one (at least so far). I definitely wouldn't want Dickerson as the everyday CF of the team over Taveras and coming into the season I remember thinking I would prefer Dickerson.

[remdog]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

It's probably a bit early to completely jettison Owings, but the early returns are pretty ugly, IMO.

As ugly as Josh Fogg!?! And, you've gotta' admit, his bat brings something to the table and gives the Reds flexibility that other teams don't have.

Micah has been the victum of some shoddy play behind him. I'm willing to give him another 4-8 starts and see how he progresses. The alternative seems to be to bring up Homer and I'm guessing that you're not a big fan of that move.

Rem

[TheNext44]

Originally Posted by jojo

Here's a list of things that are significantly better/different for Taveras in '09 than his career numbers:

XBH% and ISO
BB rate
K rate
contact rate
swinging significantly less
BB/K
GB% sig. lower
prowess with the leather


If this is sustainable, he's becoming a red dragon before our very eyes....

The bold stuff is all the same stuff. Making better contact and seeing more pitches. That is sustainable and if it is sustained, will lead to a higher OBP.

The more power (SLG, ISOP, GB%), I agree, will revert back to norm for Taveras most likely.

So no red dragon, but maybe a mean German Shepherd, which is better than the cute kitten I was expecting.

[Blitz Dorsey]

I agree Rem on Owings. Nothing wrong with keeping him in there a while so we know exactly what we've got in him. He isn't killing us or anything. In fact, when you factor in his bat, he's actually been an asset overall. Obviously the Reds need him to pitch better, but I don't think he's that far off (and is a much better No. 5 than we've had in years past... Fogg, Dave Williams, etc).

And considering he's the best bat on our bench, it makes it a no-brainer to keep him as the No. 5 starter unless he starts to kill the Reds as a pitcher.

[Ltlabner]

Originally Posted by TheNext44

So no red dragon, but maybe a mean German Shepherd, which is better than the cute kitten I was expecting.

You were expecting a cute kitten? Here's the cat I was expecting.

[fearofpopvol1]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

What's good about him being right SO FAR is that none of them are signed for nine years--or even three. So they'll not destroy the team's future if they go south next season.

Hard to argue that.

On a seperate note, I think Arroyo will finish with an ERA in the 4s somewhere...which isn't great, but not horrible either.

[wheels]

Originally Posted by TheNext44

I think this is right on the money.

We all talk about outliers and brush them off, saying since they don't fit the norm, we can't count on them. But isn't that what separates a great GM from a great GM? The ability to find guys who are outliers? Players who will break away from their projections and provide better production than expected?

Every GM can use stats to make the easy calls. The ones that win championships are the ones that can consistently find and get the players before they break through. Guys like Schurholtz, Epstein, Beane, and Jocketty do it too often, over too many years for it to be good luck. And guys like Bowden, Malone, Bavasi, and Wade fail at it too often for theirs to be bad luck.

That's a very good point.

I'm not sold on Taveras, but if they can hang around long enough, I think I'm more confident in Jocketty finding a bat than I have been almost any Reds GM in recent history.

He's been there, done that.

Keep your fingers crossed.