ESPN: Bruce has had no luck - RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion

Ghosts of 1990 · 06-02-2009, 10:02 AM

http://insider.espn.go.com/fantasy/b...lipboard090601

However, there are good reasons to think that average is going to be on the way up in the future. Bruce is simply too talented to hit in that range for long, especially in light of the improvements in his approach at the plate. The other reason is purely statistical. Bruce has an extremely unlucky .221 batting average on balls in play (as opposed to a .298 mark his rookie season, which was right around the norm).

How unlucky is that number? It is the third-worst BABIP mark in baseball, behind only Brian Giles and Garrett Atkins, and that's likely to even out over the balance of the season.

Jefferson24 · 06-02-2009, 10:15 AM

I think he'll have a good second half this year. I look forward to the day that Bruce is hitting well, EE is healthy and hitting well, and Votto is healthy. When that day comes and the pitching continues to do well the Reds will be one tough team to beat.

Ghosts of 1990 · 06-02-2009, 08:17 PM

2nd straight game he's hit a rocket at someone and caught. This is getting ridiculous

Edit: his third game in a row. I forgot Braun robbed him in Milwaukee on sunday of extra bases

ochoa30 · 06-02-2009, 08:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JayBruce32

2nd straight game he's hit a rocket at someone and caught. This is getting ridiculous

he needs to get a gun and start shooting at the fielder nearest the ball. try catching it then.

Ghosts of 1990 · 06-02-2009, 08:24 PM

People are starting to take notice:

http://twinkillingsite.blogspot.com/...jay-bruce.html

BluegrassRedleg · 06-04-2009, 01:18 AM

Interesting take on the situation, but I'm not sure I completely buy it. His poor approach has led to a lot of wasted ABs this year more than hitting into "bad luck" IMHO.

Ghosts of 1990 · 06-04-2009, 03:07 AM

The stat BABIP being low has nothing to do with poor approach and more to do with hitting it right at people.

DTCromer · 06-04-2009, 07:36 AM

How much longer until we stop excusing Jay for being so bad? My favorite stat, BA w/ RISP. . . he's terrible at and always has been.

Yes, Jay is 22 but he's having the same problems at the plate that he's been having in the minors. The worst AB I've ever seen came from Jay. I went to a Louisville game last year less than a month prior to his call up. The pitcher starts the game with 8 straight balls. Jay comes up and what does he do? He swings at the first pitch (up and out of the strike zone, mind you) and pops it up. Next guy GIDP. . . inning over.

Worst. AB. Ever. That was my first inclination that this guy A) still has a lot of learning to do or B) Really is that dumb at the plate. I'm beginning to think it's B.

So I think the question is, when we do stop excusing Jay from a lot of his wasted AB's? I feel like this is Adam Dunn: Part Deux.

schmidty622 · 06-04-2009, 08:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JayBruce32

The stat BABIP being low has nothing to do with poor approach and more to do with hitting it right at people.

His line drive rate is one of the worst in the league which plays a significant factor in BABIP.

I would direct you here for a good write up of Bruces struggles -

http://www.redreporter.com/2009/6/3/...g-and-talented

BluegrassRedleg · 06-04-2009, 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JayBruce32

The stat BABIP being low has nothing to do with poor approach and more to do with hitting it right at people.

I wasn't referring to his BABIP. I said his bigger issue has been his poor approach at the plate, which has seen him waste a lot of ABs. If you take those out of the equation, his "bad luck" would not be magnified like it is now.

PhillipsHead · 06-04-2009, 03:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DTCromer

How much longer until we stop excusing Jay for being so bad? My favorite stat, BA w/ RISP. . . he's terrible at and always has been.

Yes, Jay is 22 but he's having the same problems at the plate that he's been having in the minors. The worst AB I've ever seen came from Jay. I went to a Louisville game last year less than a month prior to his call up. The pitcher starts the game with 8 straight balls. Jay comes up and what does he do? He swings at the first pitch (up and out of the strike zone, mind you) and pops it up. Next guy GIDP. . . inning over.

Worst. AB. Ever. That was my first inclination that this guy A) still has a lot of learning to do or B) Really is that dumb at the plate. I'm beginning to think it's B.

So I think the question is, when we do stop excusing Jay from a lot of his wasted AB's? I feel like this is Adam Dunn: Part Deux.

This is a tremendously flawed line of thinking. A pitcher starts the game with 8 straight balls...so that's an automatic take right? Wrong... While it is technically smart baseball to take a strike, it is not smart on the flip side to take the best possible pitch that you might see if it's a get-over fastball. If the pitcher decides 'I need to get one in there' and grooves a pitch right down the middle, is it a good take in any scenario? You ALWAYS go up to the plate ready to swing regardless of circumstances, and if the first pitch is a meatball after 8 straight balls, I have no problem with that. If you know for a fact that that was a horrible pitch he swung at, then I will condemn that. But if he hits a 3-run homer on that pitch, he's your hero. Get off his nuts...it happens to the best of them...

BLEEDS · 06-04-2009, 04:26 PM

You know, I'm starting to be really worried about this whole " Bruce is "UNLUCKY" because of his BAPIP" crap.
Even though his LD% is very low, some people are still clinging to this.

I just hope it's not the "same" "Unlucky" that had everyong clinging to Matt Belisle for so long. His BAPIPA - BAPIP against - was so "unlucky", and everyone was convinced he would turn it around because his FIP and DIP ERA, etc, etc, was so good.
Now, he's practically out of baseball.

My take on Belisle was - MAYBE he's so "UNLUCKY" with his BAPIPA because, oh I don't know - HIS STUFF SUCKS?!?!? Maybe being "UNLUCKY" really means he's tossing up softball practice. If your stuff isn't good, then more likely people are hitting your BIP "harder" than normal, which will more often result in fast grounders that are more likely to get through holes, more solid LD's that are harder to get to because they are rockets, etc, etc...

I haven't seen enough of Bruce to proclaim that maybe his BAPIP is so bad because his approach is to terrible that he's ending up with more slow dribblers that are easy outs, etc, etc...
I have followed enough game threads and read enough to know he has had more than his fair share of solid hits right at people, but who knows.

That read that Schmidty623 linked seem to point to some of my fears.
His lack of line drives is what is the problem.
He's not hitting the ball solid.
That isn't luck, that is not getting good solid powerful swings on the ball.

I'm going to have to go read more, but I don't think we can keep claiming "unlucky" blindly without seeing if it's really something else.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

DTCromer · 06-04-2009, 05:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PhillipsHead

This is a tremendously flawed line of thinking. A pitcher starts the game with 8 straight balls...so that's an automatic take right? Wrong... While it is technically smart baseball to take a strike, it is not smart on the flip side to take the best possible pitch that you might see if it's a get-over fastball. If the pitcher decides 'I need to get one in there' and grooves a pitch right down the middle, is it a good take in any scenario? You ALWAYS go up to the plate ready to swing regardless of circumstances, and if the first pitch is a meatball after 8 straight balls, I have no problem with that. If you know for a fact that that was a horrible pitch he swung at, then I will condemn that. But if he hits a 3-run homer on that pitch, he's your hero. Get off his nuts...it happens to the best of them...

Actually, I'm off his nuts and the pitch was up and out of the zone. Make the pitcher pitch. After 8 straight balls, you'd better be taking that pitch unless you're a damned good hitter and Jay has already proved he's not that great.

BluegrassRedleg · 06-04-2009, 07:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DTCromer

Actually, I'm off his nuts and the pitch was up and out of the zone. Make the pitcher pitch. After 8 straight balls, you'd better be taking that pitch unless you're a damned good hitter and Jay has already proved he's not that great.

Exactly. Al Pujols can mash in that situation. Not Jay Bruce. Not yet.

wvu-red-fan · 06-04-2009, 08:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DTCromer

Actually, I'm off his nuts and the pitch was up and out of the zone. Make the pitcher pitch. After 8 straight balls, you'd better be taking that pitch unless you're a damned good hitter and Jay has already proved he's not that great.

A couple things about this.

Many good coaches have sent a player up to the plate after two straight walks and told them to smack the ball. You do not know he did not step into the box with orders to knock the cover off the ball. I am guessing he was batting 3rd, which makes this possible.

Another thing, Jay Bruce has already proved he is not that great? He is 22 years old. He has not proved a thing besides the fact that he might be a very good major league player when he reaches his prime.

He does certainly need to work on his outlook at the plate, but your tone seems a little undeserved at this time.

06-02-2009, 10:02 AM	#1
Ghosts of 1990 The Future is Now Join Date: May 2008 Location: Columbus, OH Posts: 3,886	ESPN: Bruce has had no luck http://insider.espn.go.com/fantasy/b...lipboard090601 However, there are good reasons to think that average is going to be on the way up in the future. Bruce is simply too talented to hit in that range for long, especially in light of the improvements in his approach at the plate. The other reason is purely statistical. Bruce has an extremely unlucky .221 batting average on balls in play (as opposed to a .298 mark his rookie season, which was right around the norm). How unlucky is that number? It is the third-worst BABIP mark in baseball, behind only Brian Giles and Garrett Atkins, and that's likely to even out over the balance of the season. __________________ 2009 Attendance Record: 3-5 2010 Attendance Record: 2-9 2011 Attendance Record: 3-4 2012 Attendance Record: 3-4 2013 Attendance Record: 1-1

06-02-2009, 10:15 AM	#2
Jefferson24 Plan to be spontaneous Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: Illinios Posts: 1,178	Re: ESPN: Bruce has had no luck I think he'll have a good second half this year. I look forward to the day that Bruce is hitting well, EE is healthy and hitting well, and Votto is healthy. When that day comes and the pitching continues to do well the Reds will be one tough team to beat. __________________ We only live in patches. - H. G. Wells

06-02-2009, 08:17 PM	#3
Ghosts of 1990 The Future is Now Join Date: May 2008 Location: Columbus, OH Posts: 3,886	Re: ESPN: Bruce has had no luck 2nd straight game he's hit a rocket at someone and caught. This is getting ridiculous Edit: his third game in a row. I forgot Braun robbed him in Milwaukee on sunday of extra bases __________________ 2009 Attendance Record: 3-5 2010 Attendance Record: 2-9 2011 Attendance Record: 3-4 2012 Attendance Record: 3-4 2013 Attendance Record: 1-1 Last edited by Ghosts of 1990; 06-02-2009 at 08:26 PM.

06-02-2009, 08:24 PM	#5
Ghosts of 1990 The Future is Now Join Date: May 2008 Location: Columbus, OH Posts: 3,886	Re: ESPN: Bruce has had no luck People are starting to take notice: http://twinkillingsite.blogspot.com/...jay-bruce.html __________________ 2009 Attendance Record: 3-5 2010 Attendance Record: 2-9 2011 Attendance Record: 3-4 2012 Attendance Record: 3-4 2013 Attendance Record: 1-1

06-04-2009, 01:18 AM	#6
BluegrassRedleg Member Join Date: May 2008 Location: Richmond, KY Posts: 972	Re: ESPN: Bruce has had no luck Interesting take on the situation, but I'm not sure I completely buy it. His poor approach has led to a lot of wasted ABs this year more than hitting into "bad luck" IMHO.

06-04-2009, 03:07 AM	#7
Ghosts of 1990 The Future is Now Join Date: May 2008 Location: Columbus, OH Posts: 3,886	Re: ESPN: Bruce has had no luck The stat BABIP being low has nothing to do with poor approach and more to do with hitting it right at people. __________________ 2009 Attendance Record: 3-5 2010 Attendance Record: 2-9 2011 Attendance Record: 3-4 2012 Attendance Record: 3-4 2013 Attendance Record: 1-1

06-04-2009, 07:36 AM	#8
DTCromer Member Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 1,325	Re: ESPN: Bruce has had no luck How much longer until we stop excusing Jay for being so bad? My favorite stat, BA w/ RISP. . . he's terrible at and always has been. Yes, Jay is 22 but he's having the same problems at the plate that he's been having in the minors. The worst AB I've ever seen came from Jay. I went to a Louisville game last year less than a month prior to his call up. The pitcher starts the game with 8 straight balls. Jay comes up and what does he do? He swings at the first pitch (up and out of the strike zone, mind you) and pops it up. Next guy GIDP. . . inning over. Worst. AB. Ever. That was my first inclination that this guy A) still has a lot of learning to do or B) Really is that dumb at the plate. I'm beginning to think it's B. So I think the question is, when we do stop excusing Jay from a lot of his wasted AB's? I feel like this is Adam Dunn: Part Deux.

06-04-2009, 04:26 PM	#12
BLEEDS Member Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Omaha, NE Posts: 2,128	Re: ESPN: Bruce has had no luck You know, I'm starting to be really worried about this whole " Bruce is "UNLUCKY" because of his BAPIP" crap. Even though his LD% is very low, some people are still clinging to this. I just hope it's not the "same" "Unlucky" that had everyong clinging to Matt Belisle for so long. His BAPIPA - BAPIP against - was so "unlucky", and everyone was convinced he would turn it around because his FIP and DIP ERA, etc, etc, was so good. Now, he's practically out of baseball. My take on Belisle was - MAYBE he's so "UNLUCKY" with his BAPIPA because, oh I don't know - HIS STUFF SUCKS?!?!? Maybe being "UNLUCKY" really means he's tossing up softball practice. If your stuff isn't good, then more likely people are hitting your BIP "harder" than normal, which will more often result in fast grounders that are more likely to get through holes, more solid LD's that are harder to get to because they are rockets, etc, etc... I haven't seen enough of Bruce to proclaim that maybe his BAPIP is so bad because his approach is to terrible that he's ending up with more slow dribblers that are easy outs, etc, etc... I have followed enough game threads and read enough to know he has had more than his fair share of solid hits right at people, but who knows. That read that Schmidty623 linked seem to point to some of my fears. His lack of line drives is what is the problem. He's not hitting the ball solid. That isn't luck, that is not getting good solid powerful swings on the ball. I'm going to have to go read more, but I don't think we can keep claiming "unlucky" blindly without seeing if it's really something else. PEACE -BLEEDS __________________ I think that in a year or two, one of these guys - Frazier, Dorn, Valaika, Cumberland, Stubbs - will be ready to replace Dunn. They won't hit as many home runs as Dunn, but they should have similar OPS. - 757690, July 22, 2008 Alonso will be playing 1B for the REDS and batting 4th one year from today. - Kingspoint, July 9, 2009

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