Reds Top Prospects- June Edition (post-draft)

[aubashbrother]

id probably keep cozart in AA most of the year , maybe a callup toward the end of the year to get his feet wet in AAA if he's still producing at AA. He did skip an entire level. Great post

[bellhead]

Originally Posted by Kc61

Few observations.

If Soto is the second best hitting prospect in the organization, he's not showing it this year. He has a .645 OPS right now at High A ball. IMO Todd Frazier is unquestionably the second best hitting prospect in the organization, even arguably the first. He has adjusted to AA with a .333 BA and an .885 OPS and should be at AAA and the major leagues very soon. IMO a very underrated prospect in minor league ball generally.

Soto had an absolutely horrible April, since then he has picked it up and has been right around .300 since then. Add in the Florida league's power sapping abilities, and his age. Put all this together and you can see why he is considered the 2nd best hitting prospect. Also he is very young for A+ ball at 20, most of the guys he is facing are 21 to 23.

Editted for the age 20, come on guys we didn't celebrate his birthday here...

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Originally Posted by bellhead

Soto had an absolutely horrible April, since then he has picked it up and has been right around .300 since then. Add in the Florida league's power sapping abilities, and his age. Put all this together and you can see why he is considered the 2nd best hitting prospect. Also he is very young for A+ ball at 19, most of the guys he is facing are 21 to 23.

Soto is over 20 now, but I agree with your post.

[GOYA]

Originally Posted by mace

Goya, you see him more than most of the rest of us do (which is, well, not at all). He obviously has a nice bat, but, from what you've seen, would you say that his glove does not preclude him from being a decent big-leaguer?

It's borderline. But if he moved to a different position he could be ok. I'd be more comfortable with him at 3rd and when Valaika comes back I think we will see him there some. He just might have enough pop to play 3rd.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by bellhead

Soto had an absolutely horrible April, since then he has picked it up and has been right around .300 since then. Add in the Florida league's power sapping abilities, and his age. Put all this together and you can see why he is considered the 2nd best hitting prospect. Also he is very young for A+ ball at 20, most of the guys he is facing are 21 to 23.

Editted for the age 20, come on guys we didn't celebrate his birthday here...

I don't have monthly stats, but I'm not sure this analysis tells the full story. I know Soto had a bad April and a strong May. But it looks to me, based on watching the boxscores, that perhaps he has fallen back again.

Right now he is hitting .258/.294/.350/.645. He has 33Ks and 9 walks. He has 6 doubles, 4 homers and 14 RBIs. After 217 at bats.

Soto is very young and he may have suffered after Alonso was promoted, perhaps leaving little protection for him in the lineup. And the league is tough on hitters. But he isn't putting up good numbers this year and I don't agree that he's the second best hitting prospect in the organization.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by princeton

he's getting leapfrogged. I expect to see him out of the organization by July 31.

coddling is good, though. when he makes the majors, he should be way ready.

The only guy who leapfrogged him was Fisher who had a better start at AAA this year.

Roenicke was rumored as potential trade bate last off-season, it is a possibility. Reds have said he is a late bloomer, started as a position player. Whether or not he is traded, he has been dominant at AAA after a shaky start this year.

[princeton]

Originally Posted by Kc61

he has been dominant at AAA after a shaky start this year.

dominant after shaky equals mediocre, especially for a reliever.

he's getting bypassed, and there's no longer a buzz. They paid guys this winter so that they didn't have to use him. Reds don't seem to think that he's their guy. He'll have to show them from afar, IMO.

wasn't long ago that he'd have been Reds' top prospect.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Kc61

I don't have monthly stats, but I'm not sure this analysis tells the full story. I know Soto had a bad April and a strong May. But it looks to me, based on watching the boxscores, that perhaps he has fallen back again.

Right now he is hitting .258/.294/.350/.645. He has 33Ks and 9 walks. He has 6 doubles, 4 homers and 14 RBIs. After 217 at bats.

Soto is very young and he may have suffered after Alonso was promoted, perhaps leaving little protection for him in the lineup. And the league is tough on hitters. But he isn't putting up good numbers this year and I don't agree that he's the second best hitting prospect in the organization.

Here are his monthly splits with the keys bolded.

Split	PA	AB	ISOP	HR	BB%	K%	BABIP	GB%	LD%	AVG	OBP	SLG
April	82	80	.062	1	0.0%	12.2%	.232	54%	16%	.213	.220	.275
May	104	94	.149	3	5.8%	13.5%	.390	42%	35%	.351	.394	.500
June	46	43	.023	0	6.5%	19.6%	.176	71%	15%	.140	.196	.163

We are kind of seeing Soto on a little bit of a roller coaster ride. His walk rate is certainly going in the right direction. That was always a knock on him in the past. If he keeps it up, a 6-7% walk rate would be fine for someone with his skillset (assuming that skillset doesn't change for the worst). His BABIP has been all over the place. The interesting thing though is the power. Is it because he isn't hitting the ball far or is it because the hits aren't finding the grass? I am not sure, but I am going to go back and look through the gameday for June for him and see.

Edit - I went back and looked in June and it doesn't look like he is hitting for power. Interesting to note though, Mesoraco probably should have 2 more HR's this month if he were playing in slightly smaller parks. Looks like he had 2 fly outs to the wall in a stadium thats 340 down the line.

[OnBaseMachine]

I agree with the way you rated the top three pitching prospects in the organization.

1. Zach Stewart
2. Mike Leake
3. Juan Carlos Sulbaran

I like Zach Stewart a lot. Two plus pitches, a developing changeup, good control, solid strikeout totals, and tons of groundballs. He has the stuff to be a top-of-rotation starter, IMO. Sulbaran arguably has the highest ceiling of any starter in the Reds system. But I rank him slightly behind Leake because Leake is closer to the majors.

[Grande Donkey]

I like Stewart's floor and ceiling more that Sulbaran's. Sulbaran seems like a #2-3 or bust to me. Stewart seems like a #1-2 or worst case as a lights out reliever.

[bellhead]

How much time do you think Stewart spends with Soto next spring?

If Soto can work with him on the change and turn it into a plus pitch, if will be a very good major league pitcher.

I think right now Stewart is the #1 player in the organization.

Also next year AAA could see a log jam with Stewart, Wood, and Leike.

Next year the pitching staff will be deep and the Reds will have some real options for the #5 role next year, with maybe Bronson also being gone.

Good stuff...

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by Kc61

Few observations.

If Soto is the second best hitting prospect in the organization, he's not showing it this year. He has a .645 OPS right now at High A ball. IMO Todd Frazier is unquestionably the second best hitting prospect in the organization, even arguably the first. He has adjusted to AA with a .333 BA and an .885 OPS and should be at AAA and the major leagues very soon. IMO a very underrated prospect in minor league ball generally.

Juan Francisco's bat has picked up, his OPS is over .750 and rising. But you say his defense is strong, perhaps, but I'd point out he has 18 errors this year so far.

Josh Roenicke has 25 Ks and allowed 3 BBs in 23 innings this year at AAA. He has a 1.22 WHIP and a 3.13 ERA after a few early bad outings. He's allowed zero homers and has ten saves. Probably deserves some mention someplace, no?

First, I said that Soto could be the second best hitting prospect. And it's true. I like Frazier a lot, and he is more likely to make the majors than any player in the Reds' system right now. However, his lack of power so far this year is a little troubling. Granted, he's getting on base at an impressive clip and a lot of his doubles could turn into dingers as he progresses, Frazier strikes me more of a very solid major leaguer, maybe similar to a Sean Casey, while Soto appears to have more upside. It just depends on what you prefer- Frazier is the safer pick while Soto has potentially more upside. I still ranked Frazier ahead of Soto as a prospect due to Soto's young age and inconsistency so far this year, but don't be surprised if Soto is an All-Star someday. (Also don't be surprised if he never makes it as a regular starter- that's why they're harder to read the younger they are.)

As far as Francisco goes, errors aren't neccessarily the best judge of defense. Francisco's D was good enough to send Frazier (who is a much better prospect) to the outfield, and get Brandon Waring shipped out of the organization. The Reds are high on it and so am I. As far as his offense goes, he continues to hit bombs but shows disappointing discipline. He should remain in Carolina for the rest of the year.

Finally, I echo princeton's sentiments on Roenicke. First of all, he did get mention if you read my original post. Second, he's 27 years old, and if you read my guidelines, I don't like including guys that age on my list- just a personal preference. While there are many late bloomers (Chris Dickerson appears to be the latest) most players who have yet to make a significant debut by that age are no longer considered "prospects." I like my lists to look at the long term future of the organization from a minor league perspective. Finally as princeton said, the Reds don't appear to be that keen on him for whatever reason. First they signed the geyser FAs, then they brought up Herrera and Fisher before him, and most recently discussed bringing up Viola instead. I would expect him to be wearing another team's threads by the end of the calendar year.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

Great job, Beni. I just have a few comments. I know he's off to a slow start, but Danny Dorn deserves a mention. And if not for his suspension, we might be talking about Scott Carroll as a prospect right now. Also, why would you omit Alex Buchholz? Finally, both Shea Snowden and Evan Hildenbrandt impressed people late last year, and when the short season leagues start, we could see them pick up where they left off.

Thanks, much appreciated.

Danny Dorn never profiled to much more than a platoon hitter even when he was hitting well (as he could never hit lefties) but after a slow start, I can't really consider him a "top prospect." He may become a left-handed pinch hitter for the Reds once Laynce Nix departs, but I don't see much of a future for him at the big league level at this point.

Buchholz and some of the pitchers you mentioned did have nice starts last year, but I'd like to see more out of them before I consider them as serious players to watch. Justin Reed falls into this category as well, although he has been around for a little while longer. Like Buchholz, Reed has been underwhelming so far at Sarasota this year.

[camisadelgolf]

One thing that may be worth considering is that Buchholz completely skipped A-ball. If he were putting up solid numbers in Dayton, I can't help but think he would've made your list.

And if you're going to let Dorn's platoon splits have such a big effect, what's with the middle relievers who would have a much smaller impact than Dorn?

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Finally, I echo princeton's sentiments on Roenicke. First of all, he did get mention if you read my original post. Second, he's 27 years old, and if you read my guidelines, I don't like including guys that age on my list- just a personal preference. While there are many late bloomers (Chris Dickerson appears to be the latest) most players who have yet to make a significant debut by that age are no longer considered "prospects." I like my lists to look at the long term future of the organization from a minor league perspective. Finally as princeton said, the Reds don't appear to be that keen on him for whatever reason. First they signed the geyser FAs, then they brought up Herrera and Fisher before him, and most recently discussed bringing up Viola instead. I would expect him to be wearing another team's threads by the end of the calendar year.

Yes, I now see the reference to Roenicke and his age in your post. I don't view his age as particularly significant, he is a converted pitcher drafted after a full college career at a later age than most. He moved quickly through the chain but the Reds are giving him plenty of reps at the higher levels.

In the recent BA article about Reds relievers, the Reds brass made this point. I see no lack of confidence in him, just a realization that he began pitching late and needed more time. And the speculation that he will be traded is just that, and if he is traded then I expect them to get meaningful value.

Your post also mentioned that errors don't necessarily determine defensive ability. I am one of Francisco's supporters on RedsZone but 18 errors by June 12 is a rather disturbing defensive stat. I expect Francisco to play in the major leagues. I have my doubts that he will be at third.