GCL Reds

[redsfandan]

Phillips still here in 4-6 years? Maybe. Maybe not. The last year under his current contract is an option year for $12m in 2012. If they pick up the option that would be $39m/5 years (not including bonuses/incentives). After that he'd need a new contract which would likely cost more $. Would the Reds pay that much more for him? Would you? By 2012-13 we may very well have a new 2nd baseman. We can't keep everyone forever.

[lollipopcurve]

You guys are way ahead of yourselves in projecting these young guys.

GCL Reds may have more high ceiling talent than in years past, but I fully expect some of the talent to never flower. Put it this way -- if one of the Yorman-Hamilton-Duran triumvirate fulfills his potential, I'll be quite pleased.

Agree, though, that that team could be far more intriguing than about the last decade of GCL clubs.

[medford]

Originally Posted by travisgrimes

i think it will most likely be Duran/Yorman/Bruce.... wow imagine this lineup in 4-6 years:

C Trade/Draft Pick/Surprise Internally
1B Joey Votto
2B Neftali Soto
3B Juan Francisco
SS Brandon Phillips (i think eventually he has to move to SS with out shortcomings in the minors at SS unless we can grab a GREAT SS in the draft)
LF Juan Duran
CF Yorman Rodriguez
RF Jay Bruce

Rotation:
Cueto
Volquez
Bailey
Stewart
Wood

Only position of need really is catcher and that can be fixed via trade, draft, someone surprises us in our system... i would use yonder alonso next season as trade bait to get a young catcher like jesus montero of the yankees or someone like that

anybody have a link to one of these type of discussions from 5 years ago? I know they're brought up annually for fun, and obviously never work out like we envision for one reason or another, but it would be fun to look back and see how right/wrong we all were, afterall not even Miss Cleo could have predicted they'd pick up Josh Hamilton in a Rule 5 trade w/ the cubbies then flip him for a all-star level pitcher. Anyhoo, here's my swing as we get ready to follow the progress of Yorman & Duran:

Catcher:
Hannigan and someone outside the organization. Dev eventually gets a cup of coffee, but at this point I'm not sure he ever has a major league impact. I like what I see in Hannigan

1B:
Yonder Alonso and his sweet swing take over this spot in 2011

2B:
Phillips is eventually moved or his option is not picked up. They'll need to start clearing out room for some of the young studs. This is where Chris Valikia and Todd Frazier battle it out for a starting nod. While I'm not sure either is ideally suited for 2b (Valikia moreso than Frazier) their bats more than make up for it in the long run. The other player is eventually moved.

SS:
As easy as it would be to pencil in Cozart here, I think this spot is filled by someone next season from outside the current organization that will man the spot in the 2010, 2011 and possible 2012 seasons. With Cozart now blocked, he's moved to another organization.

3B:
Someone from outside the organization (SFOTO - which is almost Soto and my choice in organization choice, I just think it goes outside) Edwin gets 1 more year after this, then is eventually let go and a free agent is picked up in 2011 to man this spot

LF:
Votto is moved here starting in 2011 w/ spot duty here in 2010. In 2010, Votto is the regular 1B, but the option is picked up on Hernandez causing him to play some 1B while Hannigan gets some regular playing time in 2010. This is also done w/ an eye on 2011 where Walt envisions Yonder taking over full time at 1B. Votto is also locked up long term following the 2010 season and is one of the reasons Phillips contract needs to be moved

CF:
Neither Yorman nor Duran is ready for the majors in 2011, but pushing hard. In the meantime Stubbs and Dickerson are battling it out for this spot.

RF:
Jay Bruce, talk of getting him locked up longterm along w/ Votto begin during the 2011 season, if not sooner.

Bench:
Janish is still realatively cheap and a solid backup at multiple positions defensively. Sutton is our move all over the field utility player, and the remaing spots are filled by SFOTO veterans to play some outfield and mainly pinch hit.

Pitching:
Voltron, Cueto, Bailey, Wood and SFOTO man the 5 man rotation. Bronson and Harangatang are moved along w/ Phillips to eventually get that SS. Stewart is still trying to get fully stretched out, and starts the season in AAA but eventually takes over the reigns w/ SFOTO fails as the 5th starter.

Cordero is still the closer as the Reds can't find someone to take on his contract, yet he remains effective in his role. Herrera is still toiling in middle relief, Viola, Burton, Masset, Fisher & SFOTO fill the remaining bull pen spots.

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by Benihana

What about Junior Arias?

He's currently playing in the Dominican Summer League. He had an elbow injury last year that prevented him from signing a larger bonus and it looks like they are still being cautious with him because he's mostly been playing second base and DHing. Based on what I've read, he projects as a shortstop. As for his bat, he got off a horrendous start but he's starting to show signs of life as he's 5 for his last 12 with two doubles.

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I expect a roller coaster type ride with its ups and downs for both guys. I would say that I expect both guys to keep their heads above water in the .700-.750 OPS range.

I agree. I don't expect either of them to dominate the league. I'm just hoping they can hold their own. At 16 and 17, they are both two of the youngest players in the GCL.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by medford

anybody have a link to one of these type of discussions from 5 years ago? I know they're brought up annually for fun, and obviously never work out like we envision for one reason or another, but it would be fun to look back and see how right/wrong we all were, afterall not even Miss Cleo could have predicted they'd pick up Josh Hamilton in a Rule 5 trade w/ the cubbies then flip him for a all-star level pitcher. Anyhoo, here's my swing as we get ready to follow the progress of Yorman & Duran:

Catcher:
Hannigan and someone outside the organization. Dev eventually gets a cup of coffee, but at this point I'm not sure he ever has a major league impact. I like what I see in Hannigan

1B:
Yonder Alonso and his sweet swing take over this spot in 2011

2B:
Phillips is eventually moved or his option is not picked up. They'll need to start clearing out room for some of the young studs. This is where Chris Valikia and Todd Frazier battle it out for a starting nod. While I'm not sure either is ideally suited for 2b (Valikia moreso than Frazier) their bats more than make up for it in the long run. The other player is eventually moved.

SS:
As easy as it would be to pencil in Cozart here, I think this spot is filled by someone next season from outside the current organization that will man the spot in the 2010, 2011 and possible 2012 seasons. With Cozart now blocked, he's moved to another organization.

3B:
Someone from outside the organization (SFOTO - which is almost Soto and my choice in organization choice, I just think it goes outside) Edwin gets 1 more year after this, then is eventually let go and a free agent is picked up in 2011 to man this spot

LF:
Votto is moved here starting in 2011 w/ spot duty here in 2010. In 2010, Votto is the regular 1B, but the option is picked up on Hernandez causing him to play some 1B while Hannigan gets some regular playing time in 2010. This is also done w/ an eye on 2011 where Walt envisions Yonder taking over full time at 1B. Votto is also locked up long term following the 2010 season and is one of the reasons Phillips contract needs to be moved

CF:
Neither Yorman nor Duran is ready for the majors in 2011, but pushing hard. In the meantime Stubbs and Dickerson are battling it out for this spot.

RF:
Jay Bruce, talk of getting him locked up longterm along w/ Votto begin during the 2011 season, if not sooner.

Bench:
Janish is still realatively cheap and a solid backup at multiple positions defensively. Sutton is our move all over the field utility player, and the remaing spots are filled by SFOTO veterans to play some outfield and mainly pinch hit.

Pitching:
Voltron, Cueto, Bailey, Wood and SFOTO man the 5 man rotation. Bronson and Harangatang are moved along w/ Phillips to eventually get that SS. Stewart is still trying to get fully stretched out, and starts the season in AAA but eventually takes over the reigns w/ SFOTO fails as the 5th starter.

Cordero is still the closer as the Reds can't find someone to take on his contract, yet he remains effective in his role. Herrera is still toiling in middle relief, Viola, Burton, Masset, Fisher & SFOTO fill the remaining bull pen spots.

Ha- as ridiculous as this exercise is, I'll take a shot (with full disclaimers that this will be nowhere near what actually happens)

2011

C Ryan Hanigan and SFOTO

1B Yonder Alonso

2B Brandon Phillips (the team needs at least one veteran in the lineup, he might be the most likely to stay)

SS Zach Cozart- don't sell him short. His glove is tops in the org. after Janish and he's done nothing but hit. If he does well in Louisville next year, he should be the starting SS come 2011 (provided there's no major talent brought in via trade.)

3B Todd Frazier- EE is moved sometime in the next year.

LF Joey Votto- If he proves he is over his "stress-related issues," I would start talking to him about a Longoria/Hanley type deal this offseason. Once again, provided he is over his issues, his leadership is crucial and I'd like to get him locked up regardless of what happens with Alonso/LF.

CF Chris Dickerson OR Drew Stubbs - while they should platoon for at least most of next season, I expect one of them will win out full-time by 2011

RF Jay Bruce- I would begin talking contract with him this time next year. Like Votto, I'd like to get him locked up for the long-term and go year-to-year with the young pitchers, mainly due to their injury risk.


SP1 Johnny Cueto - pretty much a given barring injury
SP2 Edinson Volquez - ditto
SP3 Aaron Harang - my guess is he stays, Arroyo goes. One stabilizing veteran in the rotation, at least until his contract runs out. Might not be the TOR guy he once was, but should still be able to give 200 IP.
SP4 Homer Bailey - we'll know by this time next year whether he's here for the long term or not.
SP5 Mike Leake/Zack Stewart/Travis Wood - one of these three wins the fifth starter spot with the other two headlining the Louisville rotation, at least to start the year. I could see Wood potentially getting dealt if he doesn't crack the rotation by this point, and maybe Stewart starts as a Joba-type swingman.

CL Francisco Cordero - unfortunately I think we're stuck with him. Along with Harang and Phillips, the only two real veterans on the roster.

SUBS

Chris Valaika - the supersub is the first bat off the bench and can play any position in the infield.
Drew Sutton OR Adam Rosales - one of these will be the other utilityman. The other will be moved out of the organization.
Dickerson/Stubbs - whichever loses out will be the 4th OF
Dorn/Henry/SFOTO - the 5th OF is impossible to predict two years out.
Hanigan/SFOTO - If Hanigan earns the job full-time next year after Hernandez's departure, this will be SFOTO.

MINOR LEAGUERS ON THE VERGE

2 of Stewart/Wood/Leake
Neftali Soto should be a call-up sometime in 2011. He may challenge Frazier for 3B.

OTHER TOP PROSPECTS

Sulbaran
Fairel
Boxberger
Rodriguez
Duran
Hamilton

EXPECT TO BE MOVED

Arroyo
Encarnacion
Owings
Heisey
Francisco
Mesoraco
Either Sutton or Rosales

[OnBaseMachine]

The GCL Reds roster is now up:

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/m...=t_ros&cid=472

No Ismael Guillon or Anyelo Polanco. Guillon is probably still rehabbing.

Pitchers of note:

Nathan Driessen - soon to be 18-year old left hander signed out of Australia

Jesus Adames - 18-year old RHP with projectable body, 3.23 ERA in DSL last year

Clayton Shunick

Hitters of note:

Juan Duran
Yorman Rodriguez
Billy Hamilton
Carter Morrison
Henry Rodriguez - 19-year old switch-hitting 3B who hit .316/.388/.394 - .782 in DSL last season

[texasdave]

Welcome to Rookie League baseball - Gulf Coast Style. The GCL Tigers were in a big hole after three full innings, trailing the GCL Braves 6-0. Down six runs on the road on Opening Day - No Problems. Three walks, four errors, one wild pitch, and two hits later, the Rookie Tigers have themselves a 7-6 lead.

Hernan Perez walks.
Jordan Cruz reaches on fielding error by second baseman Elys Blanco. Hernan Perez advances to 3rd, on throwing error by second baseman Elys Blanco.
With Adolfo Reina batting, wild pitch by Kyle Farrell, Hernan Perez scores. Jordan Cruz to 2nd.
Adolfo Reina walks.
Elvin Soto walks. Jordan Cruz to 3rd. Adolfo Reina to 2nd.
Francisco Martinez reaches on force attempt, throwing error by third baseman Jake Hanson. Jordan Cruz scores. Adolfo Reina scores. Elvin Soto to 3rd.
Brett Anderson singles on a ground ball to left fielder Layton Hiller. Elvin Soto scores. Francisco Martinez to 2nd.
Pitcher Change: Ronan Pacheco replaces Kyle Farrell.
Londell Taylor strikes out on foul tip.
With Alexander Nunez batting, Francisco Martinez steals (1) 3rd base. Brett Anderson steals (1) 2nd base.
Alexander Nunez strikes out swinging.
Luis Castillo reaches on fielding error by pitcher Ronan Pacheco. Francisco Martinez scores. Brett Anderson to 3rd.
Hernan Perez triples (1) on a fly ball to center fielder Luis Contreras. Brett Anderson scores. Luis Castillo scores.
Jordan Cruz pops out to shortstop Fernando De Los Santos.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

Henry Rodriguez - 19-year old switch-hitting 3B who hit .316/.388/.394 - .782 in DSL last season

More walks than strikeouts too. Have to like that. Certainly on my 'watch list'.

[Az. Reds Fan]

What's the deal with Shunick...why is he pitching in the GCL? I know he didn't pitch great for Billings last year, but he came from a big school (NC State) and is pushing 23, shouldn't he be at least in Dayton (or maybe, at the least Billings again). Is he dealing with an injury? Numbers crunch?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Az. Reds Fan

What's the deal with Shunick...why is he pitching in the GCL? I know he didn't pitch great for Billings last year, but he came from a big school (NC State) and is pushing 23, shouldn't he be at least in Dayton (or maybe, at the least Billings again). Is he dealing with an injury? Numbers crunch?

He is coming back from an injury.

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

More walks than strikeouts too. Have to like that. Certainly on my 'watch list'.

And he's only listed at 150 pounds. He should add some power once he fills out.

The pitchers I'm most interested in is Jesus Adames. He put up solid numbers in the DSL last year and has a very projectable body.

[medford]

random international kid question, what ever became of Winfrin Obespo (sp?) I know the visa issues made his future of playing in the states Iffy at best, but he has to be playing ball somewhere unless he just packed it in.

another not so random question, when do we typically get updates from the rookie league games? If memory serves me correctly, it was often not until late in the afternoon, sometimes into the evening before there was any info on the gulf coast redlegs.

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by medford

random international kid question, what ever became of Winfrin Obespo (sp?) I know the visa issues made his future of playing in the states Iffy at best, but he has to be playing ball somewhere unless he just packed it in.

another not so random question, when do we typically get updates from the rookie league games? If memory serves me correctly, it was often not until late in the afternoon, sometimes into the evening before there was any info on the gulf coast redlegs.

Last I heard, Obispo was pitching in Japan. That's a shame what happened with him. I remember Johnny Almarez saying he was good enough to go straight to High-A or Double-A. He sounded like another Cueto type.

Sometimes the GCL boxscores aren't available until 10:00 at night and there are other times where it's available an hour after the game. Sometimes on the rare occasion they'll gives updates during the game.

[NorrisHopper30]

I'm not one to follow minor league stats, but I think I'm going to follow this team.