BA's midseason All-Star and All-Surprise teams

[Cedric]

Originally Posted by Benihana

I would bet against Stubbs being able to put up Hunter/Cameron type numbers, particularly in the power department.

Of course. I should have been more clear. I meant that Stubbs could change the game strictly with his defense. Wasn't comparing their offense. Heisey doesn't have that ability, IMO.

[SoTxRedsFan]

Originally Posted by bucksfan2

Nice insight Doug but wasn't Joey Votto at the peak of his rankings around 50?

I think too many times scouts and prospect rankings go overboard on tools and don't put enough emphasis on being a baseball player. Its not just the tools a player has but how well those tools translate to the baseball diamond that determine how good a player will be.

All Doug is doing is saying that he doesn't think Heisey makes top 100 lists based on what the scouting services usually look at, not if he thinks he'll be successful in the majors.

[Cedric]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

There are a ton of major leaguers who lack great tools. Dustin Pedroia, Shane Victorino, Mark DeRosa, just to name a few. Very few people thought Pedroia was a major league regular, let alone a MVP. Look at our very own Joey Votto. He was viewed by many as a horrible defensive first baseman with an average bat but through hard work he has developed into a solid defender and a great hitter. I love tools as much as the next guy but players with average tools + hard work can be stars too.

Votto was a first round pick with huge upside. Of course some players are overlooked because of size (Pedroia) but mostly the Major leagues are littered with players with the same skill set. Stubbs has explosive athleticism and that tool alone can change a team. I don't know if Heisey can hit enough to outweight that. Just my opinion.

[mace]

Originally Posted by Cedric

Most scouts see Heisey as a productive 4th outfielder with a somewhat low ceiling.

If you wish to judge entirely by what the scouts think . . . did the scouts think Heisey would be a virtual Triple-Crown winner this year in AA?

There seems to be a gaping hole between what Heisey can do and what the scouts think he can do.

[OnBaseMachine]

I've seen Heisey play a couple times this year and both times I've been very impressed with him. He may not have five explosive tools but all of his tools are solid. He possesses very good plate discipline and average or better power. I don't think it's a stretch to project him as an .800+ OPS center fielder with above average defense.

[Cedric]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

I've seen Heisey play a couple times this year and both times I've been very impressed with him. He may not have five explosive tools but all of his tools are solid. He possesses very good plate discipline and average or better power. I don't think it's a stretch to project him as an .800+ OPS center fielder with above average defense.

Then you are looking at an all star. At this time I would say that's a stretch for someone that has played half a season above the A+ level. I'm by no means saying he can't do it. I am just stating why I can see the scouts POV on players like Chris.

[Cedric]

Originally Posted by mace

If you wish to judge entirely by what the scouts think . . . did the scouts think Heisey would be a virtual Triple-Crown winner this year in AA?

There seems to be a gaping hole between what Heisey can do and what the scouts think he can do.

Well of course. Chris is killing the ball right now. It's the job of scouts though to bridge the gap between minor league and major leagues. If Chris continues hitting like this then they will have to reevaluate their stance.

[Benihana]

I am on record saying I doubt Heisey will ever be anything more than a 4th OF (last summer.)
I am also on record saying that I think now would be the perfect time to sell high & trade Heisey (this month.)

However, even a skeptic such as myself cannot question the accomplishments that Heisey has made this year, and acknowledge how surprised I (along with everyone else) am at what he has done in this half-season. Like it or not, right now he belongs on any minor league Top 100 list.

(And I had no love for Chris Denorfia, either.)

[Cedric]

Originally Posted by Benihana

I am on record saying I doubt Heisey will ever be anything more than a 4th OF (last summer.)
I am also on record saying that I think now would be the perfect time to sell high & trade Heisey (this month.)

However, even a skeptic such as myself cannot question the accomplishments that Heisey has made this year, and acknowledge how surprised I (along with everyone else) am at what he has done in this half-season. Like it or not, right now he belongs in the BA Top 100.

(And I had no love for Chris Denorfia, either.)

Agree completely. Hopefully Heisey continues to rake and the Reds can cash in on his value either in GABP or through a trade. I can understand the hesitancy from BA. So many "overachievers" labels get attached and players have to fight against that. But in the end the only thing that matters is Jocketty and his staff seem to love Chris. Can't blame them at this point.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by bucksfan2

Nice insight Doug but wasn't Joey Votto at the peak of his rankings around 50?

I think too many times scouts and prospect rankings go overboard on tools and don't put enough emphasis on being a baseball player. Its not just the tools a player has but how well those tools translate to the baseball diamond that determine how good a player will be.

Votto peaked at like 20-25. Votto had a much higher ceiling than a guy like Heisey does though. Heisey has defense on him, but thats really it and thats only because of the position that he plays. For their positions Votto projected to have a better bat for a 1B than Heisey has for a CF. Votto also got to the Majors at an age where Heisey was just getting a late season taste at AA.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

There are a ton of major leaguers who lack great tools. Dustin Pedroia, Shane Victorino, Mark DeRosa, just to name a few. Very few people thought Pedroia was a major league regular, let alone a MVP. Look at our very own Joey Votto. He was viewed by many as a horrible defensive first baseman with an average bat but through hard work he has developed into a solid defender and a great hitter. I love tools as much as the next guy but players with average tools + hard work can be stars too.

Votto was viewed as a guy with an average to slightly above average bat for a first baseman. Meaning he was still viewed as a guy who was an .850 OPS bat. Some may have missed on that, but they still pegged him as a legit major league bat with some impact.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by mace

If you wish to judge entirely by what the scouts think . . . did the scouts think Heisey would be a virtual Triple-Crown winner this year in AA?

There seems to be a gaping hole between what Heisey can do and what the scouts think he can do.

Scouts don't care what numbers 24 year olds put up in AA because to be honest, it often doesn't mean much. It means a guy is a tad old for the level and should hit well. Not as well as Heisey did, but its not like he did it as a 21 or 22 year old.

[Scrap Irony]

Then the scouts you refer to are wrong, doug. I remember the Votto talk. He was considered barely adequate at 1B. He had a slow bat, they said, and was very poor defensively. Pedroia was old for his level, too short, lacking in too many tools also.

If this is what the scouts you talk to say, you need to find better scouts.

[krm1580]

Originally Posted by Benihana

I am on record saying I doubt Heisey will ever be anything more than a 4th OF (last summer.)
I am also on record saying that I think now would be the perfect time to sell high & trade Heisey (this month.)

However, even a skeptic such as myself cannot question the accomplishments that Heisey has made this year, and acknowledge how surprised I (along with everyone else) am at what he has done in this half-season. Like it or not, right now he belongs on any minor league Top 100 list.

(And I had no love for Chris Denorfia, either.)

Most of these Top prospect lists are derived from a loosely defined set of criteria that are somewhat akin to the growth chart for a newborn baby.

They take a prospect and based on age and tools they assign in their mind what a prospects potential ceiling is. From that point they evaluate how the production falls in line with their projected development curve.

So if you take a guy like Yorman Rodriguez, he is assigned a very high ceiling based on his age and tools. They figure as a 16 year old in Rookie ball he should produce X numbers. If he far exceeds that suddenly he blows up as a prospect and ends up in all of these lists because the belief is he will continue to exceed his projected growth curve and possibly exceed the initially assigned ceiling. It does not take into account that he is still far away from the majors and a lot could go wrong or he could flatline in development.

The flip side of that is a guy like Heisey is older and does not have the exceptional tools is going to be given a much lower ceiling and therefore a lower standard growth curve. In order for him to end up on lists is is going to regularly exceed the curve he was expected to be on and he will still be capped by what they consider his potential due to his age.

The reality is that players rarely follow a standard curve. The standard mean of all players might fall in line but player to player it can be all over the map. The fact is there are always going to be players whose production far exceeds the sum of their tools like a Dustin Pedroia and their are always going to be elite athletes that disappoint as baseball players like Corey Patterson.

The moral of the story is don't get to amped up over these list, realistically they don't mean anything.

As far as Chris Heisey major league upside goes, here is a name for you, right hand hitting Shane Victorino.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by krm1580

Most of these Top prospect lists are derived from a loosely defined set of criteria that are somewhat akin to the growth chart for a newborn baby.

They take a prospect and based on age and tools they assign in their mind what a prospects potential ceiling is. From that point they evaluate how the production falls in line with their projected development curve.

So if you take a guy like Yorman Rodriguez, he is assigned a very high ceiling based on his age and tools. They figure as a 16 year old in Rookie ball he should produce X numbers. If he far exceeds that suddenly he blows up as a prospect and ends up in all of these lists because the belief is he will continue to exceed his projected growth curve and possibly exceed the initially assigned ceiling. It does not take into account that he is still far away from the majors and a lot could go wrong or he could flatline in development.

The flip side of that is a guy like Heisey is older and does not have the exceptional tools is going to be given a much lower ceiling and therefore a lower standard growth curve. In order for him to end up on lists is is going to regularly exceed the curve he was expected to be on and he will still be capped by what they consider his potential due to his age.

The reality is that players rarely follow a standard curve. The standard mean of all players might fall in line but player to player it can be all over the map. The fact is there are always going to be players whose production far exceeds the sum of their tools like a Dustin Pedroia and their are always going to be elite athletes that disappoint as baseball players like Corey Patterson.

The moral of the story is don't get to amped up over these list, realistically they don't mean anything.

As far as Chris Heisey major league upside goes, here is a name for you, right hand hitting Shane Victorino.

Good post, agree completely.