Blue Jays are also taking offers for outfielder Alex Rios & third baseman Scott Rolen

[TheNext44]

Originally Posted by I(heart)Freel

Back to the Rolen rumor, ESPN has it listed as "debunked" but I cant read the details since it's Insider content.

I'll try not to post anything that is considered "paid" content.

The "debunked" post is old. It is based on Hal's earlier blog about the deal not being for EE.

It says nothing about the new rumor of Rolen for prospects.

[RED VAN HOT]

Originally Posted by TheNext44

I'll try not to post anything that is considered "paid" content.

The "debunked" post is old. It is based on Hal's earlier blog about the deal not being for EE.

It says nothing about the new rumor of Rolen for prospects.

The prospects rumor really has me worried. If the Reds eat Rolen's salary, keep EE and give up one of Heisey, Bailey, or Wood, it would be the worst trade in recent memory. I would interpret it as mortgaging the future for only a slight improvement in playoff chances. With Bruce going down today, it would make even less sense to give up Heisey. Heisey did not as much as pinch hit in a close game tonight. If he doesn't start tomorrow, I will be very worried.

[reds44]

Originally Posted by RED VAN HOT

The prospects rumor really has me worried. If the Reds eat Rolen's salary, keep EE and give up one of Heisey, Bailey, or Wood, it would be the worst trade in recent memory. I would interpret it as mortgaging the future for only a slight improvement in playoff chances. With Bruce going down today, it would make even less sense to give up Heisey. Heisey did not as much as pinch hit in a close game tonight. If he doesn't start tomorrow, I will be very worried.

I'm not sure how it makes less sense, to me it makes more sense. First of all, I don't see how anybody can lose any sleep about giving up Heisey. With him, Stubbs, and Dickerson at least one of them isn't going to be around. I really doubt the Reds are going to give up Homer in any deal right now. If the Reds were to acquire Rolen and keep EE, EE goes to LF and Rolen goes to 3rd base. Seems to make perfect sense.

[RED VAN HOT]

Originally Posted by reds44

I'm not sure how it makes less sense, to me it makes more sense. First of all, I don't see how anybody can lose any sleep about giving up Heisey. With him, Stubbs, and Dickerson at least one of them isn't going to be around. I really doubt the Reds are going to give up Homer in any deal right now. If the Reds were to acquire Rolen and keep EE, EE goes to LF and Rolen goes to 3rd base. Seems to make perfect sense.

I take issue with your points. First of all, I see no reason why the Reds can't keep Heisey, Stubbs, and Dickerson. Dickerson and Heisey can play left and Heisey can spell Bruce (next year) in right. That would give the Reds versatile left/right hitting combinations with defense, speed, and some power. I think Gomes and Nix are more likely to be gone next year.

I can't find any record of EE ever having played a regulation game in left field. Why would we want to put him there in a pennant race? Is there any reason to believe he would be better in LF than at 3B where his defense has been a weak point for some time? Further, unless his LF defense were sterling, his offense, would not likely be sufficient to overcome it. It's not like putting Manny out there. I think a Gomes/Nix platoon would be better. EE would be taking a roster spot with no place to play. Yet, I am sure the Reds would keep putting him out there with Taveras, hoping that each gets better. Further, taking on Rolen's salary works much better if the Reds also shed salary. Otherwise, the Reds run the risk of being hamstrung for the next year and half by Rolen's salary. No roster flexibility. I suspect the free agent market this year might be interesting. In this market, teams are going to be reluctant to offer arbitration.

GIDP informed me that Heisey is in St Louis for the futures game, so I guess my concern there was unfounded.

[Jpup]

I think I would rather have Edwin than Stubbs, Heisey, Wood, or any other Reds farm hand not named Alonso. I think a lot of folks see too much in the Reds farm system. I see very little fruit being valuable to the Reds anytime soon.

[reds44]

Originally Posted by Jpup

I think I would rather have Edwin than Stubbs, Heisey, Wood, or any other Reds farm hand not named Alonso. I think a lot of folks see too much in the Reds farm system. I see very little fruit being valuable to the Reds anytime soon.

Yep, for example EE is 26 and Heisey is 24.

[Jpup]

Originally Posted by reds44

Yep, for example EE is 26 and Heisey is 24.

People don't like Edwin because he makes errors throwing the ball. I hate that as well, but I haven't heard those same folks complaining about Hairston. Move Edwin to left or right, if you wish, but he's got good range at third and seems to be fine over there so far this year.

[TheNext44]

Originally Posted by Jpup

I think I would rather have Edwin than Stubbs, Heisey, Wood, or any other Reds farm hand not named Alonso. I think a lot of folks see too much in the Reds farm system. I see very little fruit being valuable to the Reds anytime soon.

Well, I think it's a good bet that EE will have a more productive career than most Reds prospects not named Alonso, since the odds are that most prospects will not pan out. Either due to injury, inability to adjust to the majors or lack of talent that get's exposed.

With EE, we know we will get around . 800 OPS and below average fielding at third, which translate to roughly a league average thirdbaseman. A very nice commodity to have.

However...

I also think that it's a good bet that between Frazier, Stubbs, Heisey, Dorn, Wood, Lotzkar, Stewart, Valaika, Soto, and Francisco, at least two will end up as better than league average players.

So in terms of trading, I would rather trade EE, who we know is an okay player, then risk trading away one of the ones that becomes a very good player.

[cincrazy]

I don't think it's so simple as moving Edwin to left and putting Rolen at third. First of all, we have no idea whether EE would agree to this switch or whether he'd throw a Soriano like temper tantrum. And would it really make this team that much better? Lets not forget that EE has truly been one of the worst hitters in the league so far this year. Looking at his track record is great, but that doesn't mean he's going to do squat for us the rest of the year, whether he's in left or third. I hope he starts to hit as he's done in the past. But I'm not optimistic in the least.

[Jpup]

Originally Posted by TheNext44

Well, I think it's a good bet that EE will have a more productive career than most Reds prospects not named Alonso, since the odds are that most prospects will not pan out. Either due to injury, inability to adjust to the majors or lack of talent that get's exposed.

With EE, we know we will get around . 800 OPS and below average fielding at third, which translate to roughly a league average thirdbaseman. A very nice commodity to have.

However...

I also think that it's a good bet that between Frazier, Stubbs, Heisey, Dorn, Wood, Lotzkar, Stewart, Valaika, Soto, and Francisco, at least two will end up as better than league average players.

So in terms of trading, I would rather trade EE, who we know is an okay player, then risk trading away one of the ones that becomes a very good player.

Dorn? He has been terrible at Louisville and he's old in comparison to the others. Dorn is already 25. Edwin is 26. His bat doesn't play anywhere. Dorn is lucky to still have a job.

[TheNext44]

Originally Posted by Jpup

Dorn? He has been terrible at Louisville and he's old in comparison to the others. Dorn is already 25. Edwin is 26. His bat doesn't play anywhere. Dorn is lucky to still have a job.

Then take him out and I still stand by my prediction.

Just 25% of those 8 top prospects need to become better than EE for it come true. It's not about the prospects, it's about the odds.

[Caveat Emperor]

Originally Posted by Jpup

I think I would rather have Edwin than Stubbs, Heisey, Wood, or any other Reds farm hand not named Alonso. I think a lot of folks see too much in the Reds farm system. I see very little fruit being valuable to the Reds anytime soon.

At least Stubbs and Heisey have a position they can defend effectively -- can't say that about Edwin "FedEx Arm" Encarnacion.

[reds44]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

At least Stubbs and Heisey have a position they can defend effectively -- can't say that about Edwin "FedEx Arm" Encarnacion.

Juan Castro can defend too.

[Will M]

Reds trade prospects for Rolen. Reds take on all his salary thereby reducing the cost in prospects.

Reds trade EE for Maicer Izturis to play SS. Izturis is on the bench in LA. LA needs a DH with Vlad out.

Reds call up Heissey to replace Bruce.

Reds DFA Willy T.

Will passes out from excitement.

[TheNext44]

Originally Posted by reds44

Juan Castro can defend too.

You make a good point.

Castro can (could) field, can't hit.

EE can hit, can't field.

Neither should be playing everyday.