Tuesday 7/28/09 Minor League Updates

[KoryMac5]

No need to bring Stubbs up until after the deadline. I imagine we will see him when the rosters expand.

[OnBaseMachine]

Yorman finished 1-for-4 with a walk. Gregorius went 3-for-5.

[Screwball]

DSL Reds lost to the DSL Cubs 10-7. Junior Arias went 0-5, and his OPS has dropped to .660. He's still really young though at only 17 years old.

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Or move him out (via trade). That would be my choice.

I doubt we see the Reds move premium propsects for verteran help at the trade deadline.

I least I hope we don't.

I can't imagine why we would be buyers.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

I doubt we see the Reds move premium propsects for verteran help at the trade deadline.

I least I hope we don't.

I can't imagine why we would be buyers.

That's where we disagree. In my mind (and the mind of many scouts) Drew Stubbs is not a premium prospect. Or even if he is (by semantics), he will not be a premium major league baseball player. I hope I'm wrong, but in watching his development, I just can't see it.

That's why I would trade him before the shine wears off. Look at the dramatic decline in the trade value of Felix Pie in the last three years. Wladimir Balentien is a different type of player, but has experienced a similar crash in value. IMO that's what will happen with Stubbs if he's not moved.

I'm not suggesting the Reds be "buyers." I'm suggesting they make smart deals that benefit the team for the long run. One would hope they know their own prospects better than anyone else. Figure out where you have strengths, decide who you'd really like to keep and trade the "top prospects" that don't fall into that category in order to address weaknesses. They certainly figured this out when they traded "premium prospect" Kurt Stillwell for Danny Jackson in 1988, and all that netted was a WS title two years later. I'd like to call it being "savvy."

[mace]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

I can't imagine why we would be buyers.

I can.

1. For 2010. The Reds have been suspending contending since 2000. They have to go for it as soon as possible, as Castellini well knows. It's not working this year, but if nothing else, 2009 has demonstrated that the NL Central is winnable even by the Reds. They're not that far off. If Scott Rolen or Marco Scutaro, etc., can be had without mortgaging too much future, it makes sense for 2010.

2. Credibility. It could right the ship and make the ballclub at least look better. It could change public perception, which is not to be underestimated. (Face it, right now you think the Reds are a mess, don't you? Would you still think that if the infield were Votto, Phillips, Scutaro and Rolen?)

3. The rest of 2009. It would create enough interest, perhaps, to keep the crowds trickling in for the rest of the year, which is a major concern. It could make September relevant. And in the process, create some momentum for 2010.

4. Culture. There's not much veteran leadership on the team, and not much environment for winning. Rolen, for one, could presumably provide that, along the way making the young players better. In that respect, he could be an investment in the future. At any rate, this team isn't going to win until it understands how.

Now, all of that is presuming that the cost is not, say, Heisey, Wood, Stewart and Frazier. Or a preponderance thereof.*

Edit: *And in that light, we might actually be agreeing, Puffy, since your statement was that you hope the Reds don't "move premium prospects" at the deadline. I'll go along with that, basically, although I think I could tolerate Alonso or Stubbs being traded for a premium return.

[redsof72]

One thing to keep in mind with Stubbs, Heisey, and Wood (and sorry if someone else has made this point): None of those guys are on the 40 man, so all have their three options remaining. They would not use up an option on any of those guys in 2009. That means that when they call the player up, they have to be sure he will stay up for the rest of the 2009 season. Rosters expand on September 1, so after that, it is not a problem. So if you call up any of those guys, you are committing to keeping him up for the rest of the season. You absolutely will not see the Reds put any of those guys on the 40 man and then option him in 2009. You would lose a year of control of the player to have him in a majors for a month or less.

[GOYA]

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/m...e=v_free&_mp=1

This is the play that won this game. Hopefully, that monster link works.

It's unusual to see Stubbs get around on a ball like that.

Anybody think Dorn was out?

[Homer Bailey]

Originally Posted by GOYA

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/m...e=v_free&_mp=1

This is the play that won this game. Hopefully, that monster link works.

It's unusual to see Stubbs get around on a ball like that.

Anybody think Dorn was out?

Man Dorn is slooooooow. Yeah I think he was out.