Cardinals after a setup guy.. not done making them even better

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by Highlifeman21

Starting to filter onto the 25 man roster you say?

What do these guys have in common?

* Drew Stubbs or Chris Heisey
* Travis Wood
* Todd Frazier
* Yonder Alonso
* Zach Stewart
* Mike Leake

I'm sure you know that none of them have ever appeared on the 25 man roster, so until they've done so, they haven't done squat in a Reds uniform.

What do these guys have in common?

* Edinson Volquez
* Nick Masset

Answer: Our farm had nothing to do with them. So, to give our farm credit for developing either of these is highly inaccurate.



While I'd love to hope that the Reds have turned the corner in terms of developing young talent, it remains to be seen if this is actually the case. It seems like some of our kids have developed in spite of our farm.

Bailey, Mesoraco, they certainly haven't fared well from the farm to the show, now have they?

I noted that Volquez and Masset were traded for in my list. But the bottom line is they're part of the organization.

I meant to add on the 25-man roster or ready to make an appearance soon (hence when I said about to start filtering in over the next 12-18 months).

You're using Bailey and Mesoraco as examples that the system has not turned the corner. No mater how good a system is, you're always going to have guys who don't develop. That's not a surprise.

But when's the last time you could honestly say the Reds had a system on the brink of being used for 25-man depth and in many cases, options for future starters? I've been following the Reds pretty closely since the 1990's, and I don't remember this much talent up and down through the organization. Not saying all these players will turn into stars and that some won't flame out, but the system is on the verge of helping the big league club in a big way.

It's for that reason I don't think a 2010 plan will require too much heavy lifting. Some maintenance, a few signings and unloading a bad contract or two and I think the Reds are in a position to make a good run.

[M2]

Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg

M2, I wouldn't trade with the Cards. It's a no-win.

It is if they give you something you really want.

Trade with anybody. Trade with everybody. Just trade FOR something.

[Caveat Emperor]

Originally Posted by M2

It is if they give you something you really want.

Trade with anybody. Trade with everybody. Just trade FOR something.

[M2]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

Hey, I think I'm on record about THAT one. I believe I may have started the engine on the Majewski Sucks bandwagon the day the trade went down.

[Highlifeman21]

Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp

I noted that Volquez and Masset were traded for in my list. But the bottom line is they're part of the organization.

I meant to add on the 25-man roster or ready to make an appearance soon (hence when I said about to start filtering in over the next 12-18 months).

You're using Bailey and Mesoraco as examples that the system has not turned the corner. No mater how good a system is, you're always going to have guys who don't develop. That's not a surprise.

But when's the last time you could honestly say the Reds had a system on the brink of being used for 25-man depth and in many cases, options for future starters? I've been following the Reds pretty closely since the 1990's, and I don't remember this much talent up and down through the organization. Not saying all these players will turn into stars and that some won't flame out, but the system is on the verge of helping the big league club in a big way.

It's for that reason I don't think a 2010 plan will require too much heavy lifting. Some maintenance, a few signings and unloading a bad contract or two and I think the Reds are in a position to make a good run.

I just can't buy into this kinda blind optimism.

Our farm isn't as good as advertised. The guys (for the most part) that are on, or on the brink of being on the 25 man roster would be very low on many teams 25 man rosters, if at all.

That's my point.

Sure, we have guys that might make an appearance on the 25 man roster, but they aren't going to turn heads in a good way. You're looking at a separation of talent where we have guys that would start on any MLB team, and a collection of guys that only start on crappy MLB teams, and should probably be career AAA guys. That's the difference between the Reds and good teams.

Good teams don't hope the stars align and their kids on the farm are the answer, all at the same time, mind you.

Bad teams do. The Reds are hoping all those kids on your laundry list pan out at the same time, b/c they've committed bad money to Arroyo and Cordero, which means they tell us they can't afford to pay for actual talent, and while Harang's contract was great at the time, now his performace doesn't match the amount he's paid.

I respectfully disagree that the Reds have talent up and down the organization. The farm is far from being on the verge to help the big club in a big way. If it is, then our big club was/is in worse shape than we ever imagined.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

Thanks, I must now clean the beer and dip spit off the monitor.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by Kc61

So everyone buys into the idea that these two pitching contracts, which expire in a year, are strangling this team.

I don't. Even with Harang, Arroyo and Cordero the Reds have a modest payroll. If they wanted to acquire another couple of good veterans it's hard to imagine they couldn't.

So you think Cincy has the revenue streams to support a $90-100MM payroll? They are around $70MM now.

Originally Posted by Kc61

Personally, I doubt that the Reds have top stars looming in the minor leagues, i don't think they will win until they spend the seed money to have more good major league players. Maybe I'm wrong, I hope so.

But ask yourself, if Jay Bruce, a great prospect, is hitting .207 this year how long will it take lesser prospects to blossom at the major league level? It could be a very long time before the current philosophy results in a winner.

Bruce, while a top prospect, was also a very young one. There are lesser prospects who can make more of a short-term impact because of their age.

[redsfan4445]

if the Reds are like the Cardinals where the fans KNOW the ownerships main goal before game #1 is making the playoffs and World Series, (Like St' Louis EVERY YEAR) the fans will come out. See how the attendance has dropped the last 3 games? the fans are not stupid. They know the season is over and no reason to get excited watching a team play like a last place team.

And the front office wont bring up any young kids to see what they can do and evaluate before going after certain targeted positions in the off season. I want to see Frazier and Heisey up here now! and get rid of some of the other players that dont help this team AKA Edwin.. Let Frazier play 3B and Hiesey play RF.(Gomes isnt a RFer)

[dsmith421]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

I think it's unreasonable for the fans to expect the owner to lose money doing it.

I think an owner who is concerned about losing money on his sports investment is a complete idiot. Sports is literally the most surefire investment in the entire world, even a degenerate cretin like Mike Brown can make a billion dollars by bunging up his hindquarters with his own thumb for twenty years.

Castellini's biggest problem right now is that he swaggered into this gig and wrote checks with his gigantic mouth that he clearly has no intention of cashing. There are 21-year-old kids in Cincinnati that have only the vaguest recollection of the Reds being good. Literally a lost generation of baseball fans. Ownership has to be innovative and willing to take major risks to win back support. Or else we're going to be submerged in the Pirates spin cycle and baseball in this town will slowly but surely die.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by Highlifeman21

I just can't buy into this kinda blind optimism.

Our farm isn't as good as advertised. The guys (for the most part) that are on, or on the brink of being on the 25 man roster would be very low on many teams 25 man rosters, if at all.

That's my point.

Sure, we have guys that might make an appearance on the 25 man roster, but they aren't going to turn heads in a good way. You're looking at a separation of talent where we have guys that would start on any MLB team, and a collection of guys that only start on crappy MLB teams, and should probably be career AAA guys. That's the difference between the Reds and good teams.

Good teams don't hope the stars align and their kids on the farm are the answer, all at the same time, mind you.

Bad teams do. The Reds are hoping all those kids on your laundry list pan out at the same time, b/c they've committed bad money to Arroyo and Cordero, which means they tell us they can't afford to pay for actual talent, and while Harang's contract was great at the time, now his performace doesn't match the amount he's paid.

I respectfully disagree that the Reds have talent up and down the organization. The farm is far from being on the verge to help the big club in a big way. If it is, then our big club was/is in worse shape than we ever imagined.

It's not really blind optimism. It's the prevailing opinions of scouts and organizations like Baseball America that watch this for a living. Alonso, Frazier, Heisey and Stubbs project as legit, everyday starters with Alonso, Stubbs and possibly Frazier have been thought to have possible high ceilings. Then you've got someone like Zach Cozart who keeps getting better and Juan Francisco is extremely raw, but has all-star ceiling.

Pitching-wise, Wood, Stewart and Leake all profile as middle to top of the rotation type of talents. The Reds already have three pitchers on the roster with that ceiling, so that's pretty significant.

The Reds already have proven players at 1B, 2B and a rising star in RF. The odds say one of either Stubbs or Heisey should settle in at CF. Ryan Hanigan continues to get on base at a .420 clip and is dominating the league at throwing out base runners. With three TOR talents on the staff and several good young arms in the bullpen and in AAA, I see a team that needs to find a consistent bopper in left and someone to man the fort at shortstop. If they can find that, they're in good shape. A Scott Rolen for Encarnacion swap would also help significantly.

I'm not saying the Reds are a player away from all of the sudden a World Series appearance, but I am definitely saying this franchise is a heck of a lot closer now to competing than it's been since 2000.

[Caveat Emperor]

Originally Posted by dsmith421

I think an owner who is concerned about losing money on his sports investment is a complete idiot. Sports is literally the most surefire investment in the entire world, even a degenerate cretin like Mike Brown can make a billion dollars by bunging up his hindquarters with his own thumb for twenty years.

I don't think there's much danger of Cast losing money on his investment. The Reds will naturally appreciate in value (and have already since he bought the controlling interest) and he'll likely realize substantial profit when and if he chooses to sell the team.

The issue of yearly operating costs is another matter. I think it's unreasonable for the fans to expect Cast to run the team with a net-operating loss (i.e. paying more money in expenditures than the team takes in for revenue) year-to-year just for the sake of being competitive.

That's all I was saying.

Castellini's biggest problem right now is that he swaggered into this gig and wrote checks with his gigantic mouth that he clearly has no intention of cashing. There are 21-year-old kids in Cincinnati that have only the vaguest recollection of the Reds being good. Literally a lost generation of baseball fans. Ownership has to be innovative and willing to take major risks to win back support. Or else we're going to be submerged in the Pirates spin cycle and baseball in this town will slowly but surely die.

Cincinnati supports a winner and a front-runner. Put a winning team on the field and the "lost generation" will be back about as quickly as you can print the tickets.

[TheNext44]

The reason why the Cardinals get good players every year in which they compete at the trading deadline is because they can. They have the depth to trade a Brett Wallace, and know that even if he becomes a stud, he won't be missed.

The Reds just don't have that same depth yet, and they absolutely did not have any depth at all until a few years ago. During most of this decade, if the Reds had any prospects to trade, they were the only ones they had.

Right now, the only real prospect that has any real trade value is Alonso, and if they trade him, it will be a few years before they can get another to trade. Soto is the closest talent wise, and he's only 20 and in single A. And any player they take in the next draft will be a few years before they can trade him, if they get anyone that good.

I do think that next year, when Soto and Leake hopefully have a solid year at AA, and guys like Frazier, Wood, Valaika, Stubbs, and Heisey get sorted out as to who has the goods, the Reds will be in nice position at the trading deadline to pick up who they need, if they are in contention. Not as nice as the Cardinals have been in for the past 10 years, but much better than this year.

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by TheNext44

The reason why the Cardinals get good players every year in which they compete at the trading deadline is because they can. They have the depth to trade a Brett Wallace, and know that even if he becomes a stud, he won't be missed.

The Reds just don't have that same depth yet, and they absolutely did not have any depth at all until a few years ago. During most of this decade, if the Reds had any prospects to trade, they were the only ones they had.

Right now, the only real prospect that has any real trade value is Alonso, and if they trade him, it will be a few years before they can get another to trade. Soto is the closest talent wise, and he's only 20 and in single A. And any player they take in the next draft will be a few years before they can trade him, if they get anyone that good.

I do think that next year, when Soto and Leake hopefully have a solid year at AA, and guys like Frazier, Wood, Valaika, Stubbs, and Heisey get sorted out as to who has the goods, the Reds will be in nice position at the trading deadline to pick up who they need, if they are in contention. Not as nice as the Cardinals have been in for the past 10 years, but much better than this year.

The Cards had little depth in their propsect list, and have traded most of it away now. The reason they can make trades like this is becuase they are contending. We could also trade prospects for FA's to be, it just makes no sense.

To suggest that Alonso is the only real propsect we have with any trade value is just wrong. We have the goods to pull off a trade like the Cards did for Holliday or the Phillies did for Lee, just not the situation where it makes sense.

To suggest the Cards have the depth to not miss a Wallace indicates you know little of their farm system. Considering how their farm system has been ravaged this year through promotions, trades and poor performances, it you mixed up their and our propsects, probably 8 of the top 10 would be Reds.

[Highlifeman21]

Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp

It's not really blind optimism. It's the prevailing opinions of scouts and organizations like Baseball America that watch this for a living. Alonso, Frazier, Heisey and Stubbs project as legit, everyday starters with Alonso, Stubbs and possibly Frazier have been thought to have possible high ceilings. Then you've got someone like Zach Cozart who keeps getting better and Juan Francisco is extremely raw, but has all-star ceiling.

Pitching-wise, Wood, Stewart and Leake all profile as middle to top of the rotation type of talents. The Reds already have three pitchers on the roster with that ceiling, so that's pretty significant.

The Reds already have proven players at 1B, 2B and a rising star in RF. The odds say one of either Stubbs or Heisey should settle in at CF. Ryan Hanigan continues to get on base at a .420 clip and is dominating the league at throwing out base runners. With three TOR talents on the staff and several good young arms in the bullpen and in AAA, I see a team that needs to find a consistent bopper in left and someone to man the fort at shortstop. If they can find that, they're in good shape. A Scott Rolen for Encarnacion swap would also help significantly.

I'm not saying the Reds are a player away from all of the sudden a World Series appearance, but I am definitely saying this franchise is a heck of a lot closer now to competing than it's been since 2000.

You must work for a PR firm with that kinda spin on the Reds farm.

Alonso's probably the only guy on that list that'll do anything of significance for the big club, and currently he's without a position due to Votto playing 1B.

Last time I checked, I'm not an eskimo, so I don't need the fridge or freezer you're tryin' to sell me.

[TheNext44]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

The Cards had little depth in their propsect list, and have traded most of it away now. The reason they can make trades like this is becuase they are contending. We could also trade prospects for FA's to be, it just makes no sense.

To suggest that Alonso is the only real propsect we have with any trade value is just wrong. We have the goods to pull off a trade like the Cards did for Holliday or the Phillies did for Lee, just not the situation where it makes sense.

To suggest the Cards have the depth to not miss a Wallace indicates you know little of their farm system. Considering how their farm system has been ravaged this year through promotions, trades and poor performances, it you mixed up their and our propsects, probably 8 of the top 10 would be Reds.

I think we actually agree, kinda.

The Cards will not miss Wallace, because they have depth at the major league level, which is due to having depth throughout the organization for over a decade.

They currently have in their everyday lineup Molina, Pujols, Shoemaker, Ryan, Rasmus and Ankiel (although one of the last two will sit because of Holliday), all home grown, all young, all league average or better, and all save Pujols, very cheap. That gives them the opportunity to spend money on free agents, and mid season acquisitions, and allows them to trade a young player like Wallace, and not miss him. They are depleted at the minor league level, because they had so many make it to the bigs and contribute.
And the Cardinals do have some nice prospects at the lower levels and should be refueled in a year or two.

The Reds have more and better prospects at higher levels right now, but they have such a dirth of talent at the major league level, that they can't afford to trade them to fill all the holes. The Reds need a SS, 3B, LF and CF. They have the prospects to fill maybe two of those holes. And if they do that, then will need to wait a few years to rebuild the farm again.

The Reds do have the talent to make a trade like the Phils did for Lee, but they wouldn't have prospects like D. Brown, Drabek, M. Taylor and Happ still around. That's the depth the Reds need.