Reds 40 Man Roster as of 8/1/09. What players need protection in Rule V draft?

[lollipopcurve]

I have more respect for all players than to call any of them "chaff," or "fodder," or "dreck," terms routinely thrown around by Rzers. Those are terms, IMO, used by people who have an insufficient appreciation for the achievement of those who play the game at this level and particularly for those who have managed to stay around as long as Wells. My point about his 65 wins was not some kind of statistical projection of what he'll do; it was a point about the respect he deserves for what he's done. As to his lifetime percentage, it's worth remembering he's been on some pretty bad teams. What I just don't get is why people are so completely unwilling even to consider the possibility that a Wells or Lehr could contribute, probably from the pen, to this club next year. Wells' control is an issue, of course, as is Lehr's velocity. But pitchers do sometimes manage a rotation to pen transition sometimes and I've even seen a couple of successful righthanders throw no harder than Lehr. That's the last I'm saying about either of them.

Excellent post.

[Bumstead]

Originally Posted by HokieRed

I have more respect for all players than to call any of them "chaff," or "fodder," or "dreck," terms routinely thrown around by Rzers. Those are terms, IMO, used by people who have an insufficient appreciation for the achievement of those who play the game at this level and particularly for those who have managed to stay around as long as Wells. My point about his 65 wins was not some kind of statistical projection of what he'll do; it was a point about the respect he deserves for what he's done. As to his lifetime percentage, it's worth remembering he's been on some pretty bad teams. What I just don't get is why people are so completely unwilling even to consider the possibility that a Wells or Lehr could contribute, probably from the pen, to this club next year. Wells' control is an issue, of course, as is Lehr's velocity. But pitchers do sometimes manage a rotation to pen transition sometimes and I've even seen a couple of successful righthanders throw no harder than Lehr. That's the last I'm saying about either of them.

I didn't refer to him as any of those things only as a bad MLB pitcher which is what he has been for at least the last 5 years. Why would the Reds waste a 40 man roster spot on a bad 30-some-odd-year-old pitcher that will be no part of their future??? Why? If you are related to him, I can understand why you are upset but otherwise it's just silly to even consider or take seriously. Lehr...he just shouldn't take anyone's spot that might have a future. Micah Owings takes way more flack than he deserves on this board for a guy that still has a chance to get better and help this team. If you are mad about how anyone gets disrespected on this board, you should be mad about how Owings gets maligned...among others before Wells/Lehr...

This is a silly argument; we should be debating the younger guys that may need to be protected on the 40-man roster, not these old guys that have no chance to be on there at the time of the Rule 5 draft.

Bum

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by Bumstead

I didn't refer to him as any of those things only as a bad MLB pitcher which is what he has been for at least the last 5 years. Why would the Reds waste a 40 man roster spot on a bad 30-some-odd-year-old pitcher that will be no part of their future??? Why? If you are related to him, I can understand why you are upset but otherwise it's just silly to even consider or take seriously. Lehr...he just shouldn't take anyone's spot that might have a future. Micah Owings takes way more flack than he deserves on this board for a guy that still has a chance to get better and help this team. If you are mad about how anyone gets disrespected on this board, you should be mad about how Owings gets maligned...among others before Wells/Lehr...

This is a silly argument; we should be debating the younger guys that may need to be protected on the 40-man roster, not these old guys that have no chance to be on there at the time of the Rule 5 draft.

Bum

Well Micah is what he is and without a drastic change in his delivery he will continue to be what he is, a potential impact bat wasting his talent trying to pitch. Micah is sort of a guy in the middle of Wells and Lehr. He has trouble locating his pitches especially anything on the left side of the plate due to his delivery but he's better than Wells at locating and his stuff is better than Lehr's but not by a whole lot. In fact if you take away a couple of MPH from Micah there's not much difference between the two stuffwise. He's an acceptable #5 pitcher because he helps out offensively.

Lehr is the kind of guy whom you keep in AAA for emergency situations such as these. Wells is the kind of guy you do the same with at best at this point in his career, he's best used when an emergency in AAA or MLB arises. His best chance to have continued MLB exposure is moving around team to team every year where emergency's happen.

[mace]

Would not the same have been said about Ryan Franklin a couple years ago?

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by mace

Would not the same have been said about Ryan Franklin a couple years ago?

The same as who Kip Wells? If so then perhaps but Franklin hadn't yet found Dave Duncan's tutelage whereas Kip has already been there and been one of the few who Duncan couldn't help.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

The same as who Kip Wells? If so then perhaps but Franklin hadn't yet found Dave Duncan's tutelage whereas Kip has already been there and been one of the few who Duncan couldn't help.

As a reliever, I think Kip Wells can be pretty effective. And since you bring up the Cardinals, when he pitched out of their bullpen, he did quite well.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...2007&t=p#sprel

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

As a reliever, I think Kip Wells can be pretty effective. And since you bring up the Cardinals, when he pitched out of their bullpen, he did quite well.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...2007&t=p#sprel

Too small of a sample size for my preference, only 23 IP and 8 games pitched in. He was the mop up guy sounds like.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by HokieRed

What I just don't get is why people are so completely unwilling even to consider the possibility that a Wells or Lehr could contribute, probably from the pen, to this club next year. Wells' control is an issue, of course, as is Lehr's velocity. But pitchers do sometimes manage a rotation to pen transition sometimes and I've even seen a couple of successful righthanders throw no harder than Lehr. That's the last I'm saying about either of them.

Could they maybe contribute as a long man out of the pen? I guess. Does that merit a spot on the 40 man roster that would otherwise go to a prospect who might be more than the last arm in the bullpen and possible significantly more? Nope.

Give Wells all the respect you want on a person level. But when it comes to building a 25 man roster, guys like him are the definition of replaceable.

[HokieRed]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

Could they maybe contribute as a long man out of the pen? I guess. Does that merit a spot on the 40 man roster that would otherwise go to a prospect who might be more than the last arm in the bullpen and possible significantly more? Nope.

Give Wells all the respect you want on a person level. But when it comes to building a 25 man roster, guys like him are the definition of replaceable.

Frankly I don't think we've got that many guys who will be very attractive in the Rule 5 draft. I think we probably over-worry about this a lot. Sure I wouldn't want to lose somebody in order to protect Wells or Lehr. But I doubt it's really a big problem. I don't see too many unprotected guys in our system right now who really would be good bets to hold a 25 man roster spot next year for the whole year--remember that's what they've got to do. Here, as elsewhere of course, the difficulty is in the details. It has to be looked at case by case.

[GIDP]

Its not about protecting Wells in my mind. Its about having no problem what so ever of letting him find another team to pitch on. Kip wells is to pitching that Darnell Mcdonald is to position players in my mind.

And yes he is minor league fodder at this point in his career. I have no desire to protect a guy like that. Let him resurrect his career in AAA because thats where he belongs and is likely headed.

[RED VAN HOT]

Valiquette, Watson, and Ondrusek are headed to AZ Fall League. I think that signals an intent to protect them.

Enerio Del Rosario has moved quickly this year with an outstanding ground ball percentage. He will have good value on a team that suddenly has a tight infield.

The tough choices for me are Viola, Maloney, and Thompson. Viola has a high ceiling, but a history of inconsistency. It's becoming a question of how long the Reds want to go with him. At 26, I think he is likely not to be protected. Maloney will get the start today, probably return to the Bats for the playoffs, then get 2-3 more starts for the Reds. That could determine his status. If they don't protect them, they will be taken. The Reds might work a trade before the draft in order to get something in return. On the other hand, Maloney might show that he can keep opposing hitters in the park, putting him back in the mix as a starter next year. The issue with Thompson is health. He is still young. If a team takes him in Rule 5 that could keep him on the DL for most of the season.

In general, I see no point in protecting players like Wells, Lehr, Sutton, Richar, and even Castillo. They provide organizational depth that can be re-acquired after the draft if needed.

[HokieRed]

It might be though that the most important principle guiding the 40 man roster is not protecting people from being taken but rather getting in place those most likely to contribute on the major league level during the year.
Note, too, Ariz. can be a place to showcase people for trading.
On Maloney, I think we'll know clearly up or down by the end of the season. My prediction is they'll certainly protect him.

[Mario-Rijo]

They need to protect Viola he's a guy that I think has way too much going for him not to protect, he's #1 on the list for me.

[RED VAN HOT]

Originally Posted by HokieRed

Note, too, Ariz. can be a place to showcase people for trading.

The showcasing strategy is often mentioned on RZ, but I have my doubts about it as a strategy. It cuts two ways. Players can disappoint as well. IIRC, several Reds players had disappointing stats last fall. Perhaps I am naive, but I tend to believe that the Reds are using their AZFL slots on players that they believe have ML potential and can benefit from the extended play. That said, any of these players can be traded for the right return.

[HokieRed]

Originally Posted by RED VAN HOT

The showcasing strategy is often mentioned on RZ, but I have my doubts about it as a strategy. It cuts two ways. Players can disappoint as well. IIRC, several Reds players had disappointing stats last fall. Perhaps I am naive, but I tend to believe that the Reds are using their AZFL slots on players that they believe have ML potential and can benefit from the extended play. That said, any of these players can be traded for the right return.

There's no difference between our points of view. You showcase people you think have ML potential, in the hope it will be apparent to other teams too, who'll then want them and offer you something you'd rather have.