Reds 40 Man Roster as of 8/1/09. What players need protection in Rule V draft?

[Gallen5862]

Viola has been placed on the 40 man roster and called up to the Reds. Danny Richar was placed on the 60 Day DL to make room for him.

[mace]

I suspect that a lot of these decisions will come down to choices between similar players. A quick list of possible redundancies might include these pairs (or triplets):

Nix/Dorn -- Lefty LF platoons.

Gomes/Balentien -- Righty LF platoons, although either could be more. Also McDonald, who played really well after he was sent down.

Miller/Denove/Tatum -- I wouldn't dismiss Miller out-of-hand, considering how exceptionally well he's handled the Reds' pitchers. If they sign Hernandez, I'd think that only one of these three would be protected. Without Hernandez, maybe two.

Wells/Lehr -- Over-aged starting depth.

Thompson/Buck -- Promising pitchers with injury histories.

Lecure/Jukich -- Potential #4 or #5 starters.

Sutton/Rosales -- Reserve infielders who hit better than they field. (Are supposed to, anyway.)

Stubbs/Taveras -- Obviously Stubbs will be on the 40-man, but if they think he can be an everyday CF in Cincinnati, they'd be more likely to release Taveras. Wouldn't they?

Viola/Watson -- Erratic relievers with great stuff. Philippe Valiquette might be in the grouping.

I'm sure there are others. And I imagine there are technicalities that make some of the matches irrelevant.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by RED VAN HOT

Valiquette, Watson, and Ondrusek are headed to AZ Fall League. I think that signals an intent to protect them.

Enerio Del Rosario has moved quickly this year with an outstanding ground ball percentage. He will have good value on a team that suddenly has a tight infield.

The tough choices for me are Viola, Maloney, and Thompson. Viola has a high ceiling, but a history of inconsistency. It's becoming a question of how long the Reds want to go with him. At 26, I think he is likely not to be protected. Maloney will get the start today, probably return to the Bats for the playoffs, then get 2-3 more starts for the Reds. That could determine his status. If they don't protect them, they will be taken. The Reds might work a trade before the draft in order to get something in return. On the other hand, Maloney might show that he can keep opposing hitters in the park, putting him back in the mix as a starter next year. The issue with Thompson is health. He is still young. If a team takes him in Rule 5 that could keep him on the DL for most of the season.

In general, I see no point in protecting players like Wells, Lehr, Sutton, Richar, and even Castillo. They provide organizational depth that can be re-acquired after the draft if needed.

Interesting point of view RVH (in the bold above) could be, it certainly would seem to indicate they would like more data in order to make a more informed decision on them at the very least. I think they end up putting Ondrusek on the 40, not Watson and Valiquette is up in the air I think. Your last paragraph I couldn't agree more with as well. Although Castillo intrigues me even though I believe he'll eventually end up only as organizational depth. Let's just say I don't think anyone has given him enough of a chance behind the plate to figure out if he can indeed cut it, he could eventually end up a decent platoon type catcher but probably not good enough to worry about holding on to.

On Viola his relative inexperience at the position (despite his age) and the way he has risen the last couple of seasons tells me it's too soon to give up on him, especially with that stuff he is the type of guy who would without a doubt get picked up. Hopefully he stays on the 40 man now that he is there. Maloney and Thompson well, I'd probably protect Maloney for at least 1 more year he has some worth to the 40 man in '10. Thompson I don't think you can protect at this point what with some other solid guys who need to be protected and his shaky future.

[lollipopcurve]

I don't think there should be any doubt re: Viola (protect), Maloney (protect) and Thompson (let go). Viola has an excellent arm and is lefty. Maloney is a lefty starter who's still young and who can provide depth for the back of the rotation. Thompson has a bad shoulder for the 2nd time in his career -- he's likely done.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

I don't think there should be any doubt re: Viola (protect), Maloney (protect) and Thompson (let go). Viola has an excellent arm and is lefty. Maloney is a lefty starter who's still young and who can provide depth for the back of the rotation. Thompson has a bad shoulder for the 2nd time in his career -- he's likely done.

Well if he is done he at least got to debut and pitch well against the NYY's, not a bad way to have done it.

[lollipopcurve]

Well if he is done he at least got to debut and pitch well against the NYY's, not a bad way to have done it.

No doubt. He was a nice comeback story then, and maybe he can be again. But it'll be tough.

[NNredsfan]

My wife and I went to that game. It was my first and only time I've been to the old Yankee stadium. It was awesome to say the least. As an aside, I met a dad and his son at a concession stand and the boy was holding a ball he got from Cueto who signed it and gave it to him during pre-game warmups. The dad (a Yankee fan) asked me if he was any good. I said yes and promptly asked if I could buy the ball from him. The kid was all for it but dad said no. I guess I should have told him he sucked.

[Mario-Rijo]

Nice breakdown of the 40 man so I thought I'd post it here just as another resource. The way he broke it down just seems to make it a bit clearer than I have seen it. This isn't an AP piece just a post from another forum BTW.

Reds Have Some Work to Do with the 40-man Roster
by Slyde on Oct 23, 2009 8:28 AM EDT in Off-season

When the season ended, the Reds had a full 40-man roster plus 4 players on the 60-day DL who did not count toward the 40-man roster. In the next couple of weeks those 4 players (Mike Lincoln, Edinson Volquez, Wilkin Castillo, and Danny Richar) will lose their 60-day status and will have to be moved back to the 40-man or put through waivers. As far as I can tell, the only player on the roster who is a straight up free agent at the end of the season is Kip Wells. The only contract option the Reds have to consider this off-season is Ramon Hernandez's $8.5 million option, which one would think will be turned down. So, that opens up 2 roster spots, likely for Edinson Volquez and Mike Lincoln (since the Reds still owe him $2.5 million). Every other player appears to be under contract or under control because of Major League service time So, what do they do with the remaining two players, Castillo and Richar?

Before we figure that out, let's throw another wrench into the mess: The Rule 5 Draft. The Reds have several players in the minors who could be available for the Rule 5 Draft in December if they are not protected on the 40-man roster before the end of November. According to Wikipedia, here are the rules for eligibility:

.

Basically, this means that any players that were drafted or signed at the age of 19 or older in 2006 are eligible for the draft, and anyone younger than that must have been signed in 2005 or earlier. Who does that give us?

Well, the list of eligible players in the organization is actually quite long, but not every player is at risk of being drafted because of their skill or performance (remember, rule 5 draftees have to stay on the MLB roster for the entire season). Some of the names though are obvious keepers. Chris Heisey, Chris Valaika, and Travis Wood will likely be protected because of their prospect status. There are a couple of other names that could potentially get drafted if the Reds don't protect them as well. Someone like Daniel Dorn may have enough pop in his bat to sit on a team's bench all year as a left-handed pinch hitter. Enerio Del Rosario moved up 3 levels last year and posted a 1.68 ERA for the season. He's not really a power pitcher, which is typically the type of pitcher that gets drafted in the rule 5, but his control was outstanding last year and that may draw some eyes his way.

The Reds can't protect everyone, so they are going to have to make some choices. There is little doubt for me that they will find spots for Heisey, Valaika, and Wood. The question is, do they hold on to Castillo and Richar? Will they feel it necessary to protect any other minor leaguers such as Dorn or Del Rosario? And who do they drop? I'll put the 40-man roster after the jump. Let's hear who you think should stay and who should clear out some space.

PHP Code:

Reds Current 40-man roster 

Bronson Arroyo  
Homer Bailey 
Bill Bray 
Jared Burton 
Francisco Cordero 
Johnny Cueto 
Carlos Fisher 
Aaron Harang 
Daniel Ray Herrera 
Sam LeCure 
Justin Lehr 
Mike Lincoln** 
Matt Maloney 
Nick Masset 
Micah Owings 
Ramon Ramirez 
Arthur Rhodes 
Daryl Thompson 
Pedro Viola 
Edinson Volquez **
Kip Wells#

Wilkin Castillo  ** 
Ryan Hanigan 
Ramon Hernandez #
Corky Miller 
Craig Tatum 

Yonder Alonso 
Kevin Barker 
Juan Francisco 
Paul Janish 
Brandon Phillips 
Danny Richar **
Scott Rolen Adam Rosales 
Drew Sutton 
Joey Votto 

Wladimir Balentien 
Jay Bruce 
Chris Dickerson 
Jonny Gomes 
Darnell McDonald 
Laynce Nix 
Drew Stubbs 
Willy Taveras 

#-Free Agent; **-60-day DL 


[RED VAN HOT]

Given his success with Bailey and LeCure, it may be better to retain Lehr as a pitching coach. I wonder if that played into the decision to go younger with the ML pitching coach?

Other than that, there are still a lot of unknowns. Has Bray or Lincoln thrown? If so, how did they look? Is Castillo really a catcher? If so, his versatility may save another roster spot on the 25. Are Heisey, Valaika, Wood, Dorn, and Del Rosario the only prospects that must be protected? Ondrusek?

If the problem is no worse than this, I believe I could find enough names on the current 40 to enable me to protect all of them.

[HokieRed]

I'd add Valaika to the list of questions. I'd certainly protect Dorn first.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by HokieRed

I'd add Valaika to the list of questions. I'd certainly protect Dorn first.

No way the Reds would risk losing Valaika. He's a highly touted prospect and, if necessary, a team could draft him and keep him as the 25th man for a year. Or could stash him on the DL. No way the Reds leave Valaika unprotected.

Dorn probably gets protected because he could be drafted as a pinch hitter by somebody. But Reds could expose him. It's possible the Reds view Dorn strictly as a backup player and could take the risk of losing him.

[HokieRed]

Valaika had a .615 OPS last year at AAA as a 24 year old. He was injured, and that's certainly a factor, but he did have 366 AB's. He doesn't project as a SS, he's certainly not going to displace Phillips at 2b or Rolen (and the other 3b's we have) at 3b. So what's his future with the organization? Looks to me like another utility player, one with AAA stats that are miles behind those put up by Rosales and Sutton (I actually think he'll probably be a better player than Rosales). In the best of all possible worlds, of course you'd protect him, but remember that protecting Valaika means not protecting somebody else. So, for me, he remains a question. I don't see that he'd be a compelling pick for another club.

[icehole3]

they could take these guys off and I wouldnt bat an eye, I know they wont take them all off, just saying

Miller
Hernandez
Castillo
Barker
Richar
Balentien
Nix
Taveras
Wells
Thompson
Lincoln

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by HokieRed

Valaika had a .615 OPS last year at AAA as a 24 year old. He was injured, and that's certainly a factor, but he did have 366 AB's. He doesn't project as a SS, he's certainly not going to displace Phillips at 2b or Rolen (and the other 3b's we have) at 3b. So what's his future with the organization? Looks to me like another utility player, one with AAA stats that are miles behind those put up by Rosales and Sutton (I actually think he'll probably be a better player than Rosales). In the best of all possible worlds, of course you'd protect him, but remember that protecting Valaika means not protecting somebody else. So, for me, he remains a question. I don't see that he'd be a compelling pick for another club.

I think cherry picking one season where he got off to a slow start at a new level, missed significant time with an injury and then having to come back and start all over again with possible effects from said injury and calling that indicative is just wrong. The guy deserves the benefit of the doubt when it comes to hitting at least and he was 23 this past season BTW. Comparing him to 2 older guys in Sutton (26) and Rosales (26) isn't quite fair as neither of them are the natural hitter he is despite the fact that they have strengths of their own. He will bounce back next year and be better than ever IMO but despite that he has done well enough to protect.

[HokieRed]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

I think cherry picking one season where he got off to a slow start at a new level, missed significant time with an injury and then having to come back and start all over again with possible effects from said injury and calling that indicative is just wrong. The guy deserves the benefit of the doubt when it comes to hitting at least and he was 23 this past season BTW. Comparing him to 2 older guys in Sutton (26) and Rosales (26) isn't quite fair as neither of them are the natural hitter he is despite the fact that they have strengths of their own. He will bounce back next year and be better than ever IMO but despite that he has done well enough to protect.

First of all Valaika's birthday is given as Aug, 1985, so he was 24 this year. Second, I don't see how you can describe as "cherry picking" looking at his most recent season at the highest level he's played: that's what GM's are going to be looking at when they evaluate whether they are going to take him in the rule 5 draft. Third, I didn't compare him to Sutton and Rosales, except to say I thought he'd be better than Rosales. The point is simply that those are guys whose AAA stats are a lot better than Valaika's and we've seen how they've fared in the major leagues. I like Valaika fine and think he'll be a decent utility player in the major leagues--if he doesn't get taken in the Rule 5 draft this year (which will result in his sitting on some major league bench when, as should be clear to every GM, he needs at least another full season at AAA). I repeat the question is not simply whether he's good enough to protect: it's who do you expose in order to protect a guy whose likely ceiling is that of a utility player.