Keith Law looks at traded prospects

[bucksfan2]

Originally Posted by TRF

doug does tend to overvalue reds prospects, but he's not wrong on this.

Jan. 14 2008, Rolen was traded to Toronto for Troy Glaus.

Glaus has never been considered a good fielder, though he's probably better than EE. So why is Rolen now worth three players to a team that isn't going to contend this year, or next if the holes at SS and CF and SP aren't filled? Especially when one of those holes, SP, could potentially have been filled by Stewart ala Cueto in 2008?

dumb trade.

Who cares who was traded for who before the fact? Should we discount Scott Kasmir because of who he was traded for? Should we discount Brandon Phillips because he was claimed off waivers?

[kpresidente]

It's not just that we overpaid, which we did, it's that you could have accomplished the same thing with Beltre for nothing but money. Especially given that Jocketty talked about extending Rolen.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by bucksfan2

Who cares who was traded for who before the fact? Should we discount Scott Kasmir because of who he was traded for? Should we discount Brandon Phillips because he was claimed off waivers?

huh?

Discount Kazmir? Hell yes! The Mets way overpaid to get Victor freaking Zambrano. Everyone in baseball knew the Mets were overpaying. BP was DFA'd. Did the Reds overpay to get him? No. One minor league reliever, Jeff Stevens.

Aside from the fact that offensively, EE and Rolen have been comparable over the prior two seasons, Stewart AND Roenicke? Roenicke who had already reached the major league level, and had success? Stewart on the cusp?

blech.

[blumj]

I think the Glaus thing is kind of a red herring. That guy, when healthy, had the type of bat that makes people a little weak in the knees, and the circumstances of that trade were unusual.

[Caveat Emperor]

Originally Posted by mth123

4. Selling off those arms for the Jays taking on some money was unwise. Keep the arms and deal Weathers and Willy if possible to recoup the cash. Deal what's left of Gonzo or Ramon. Sell lesser prospects for cash, but don't sell off the prospects who could make a difference. This team is flush with role player, bench player depth. Stewart was one of a very few who could possibly be a difference maker. Probably the only arm in the organization with that potential (Mike Leake is still unknown).

The way he's playing, the only way you get Willy off this team is if you pay his salary -- either via trade + cash or a straight DFA. Who would want him?

As far as Stewart -- let's keep things in perspective. He had a good year. Lots of prospects have had good years and still never amounted to anything. It's a good sign, but it's by no means a guarantee of anything in the future.

[M2]

Keith Law always looks like he's about cry.

He's also never ahead of the curve on any prospect. All he ever does is tell you who's doing well.

[Kingspoint]

Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp

Hm.

Troy Glaus was traded at 31. In the four years since the 'prime' age of 27, prior to being traded, he OPS'd 930, 885, 868 and 839.

I think it goes without saying that a Rolen-for-Glaus deal was pretty even and should not have necessitated any additional players.

That looks like a stead decline to me. Pretty similar to Rolen's decline, accept for the fluke year he's having this year, when every aging player has "one fluke year as they decline, then the decline continues as if they hadn't had the fluke year".

[Kingspoint]

Originally Posted by TheNext44

This was stated before, but let me re-emphasis...

THIS IS KEITH LAW TALKING!!!

Why are we listening to him?

He raked the Reds over the coals on the Hamilton/Volquez deal because the thought that Volquez would never be more than a middle reliever.

He said that the Reds pick of Cozart was the worst 2nd round pick that year because he will never be anything other than a light hitting utility guy.

I could go on forever with some of the misreadings that Law has made since joining ESPN. Just like Steve Phillips, there's a reason why he is working in journalism and not for a major league team. His rankings mean squat to me.

That is true.

[Kingspoint]

Originally Posted by mth123

Here is the issue with this trade. The consensus on this board seems to be that Harang, Arroyo and Cordero have contracts that must be purged for this team to re-tool and fill its holes on the staff and on the field. This deal is a step in the opposite direction:

1. Stewart was the only pitcher in the high minors with a remote possibility of filling a spot in the top three of the rotation. Like it or not, Harang and Arroyo are ticketed for those spots and will need to be replaced when they go. The other guys in the high minors - Maloney, Lecure even Wood - are all back of the rotation guys if they pan out. I get the idea that pitching prospects frequently fail. But IMO that doesn't mean they should be discarded, it simply means that you need more of them to increase the chance of successfully finding one of them. I do think Stewart probably needed another full year building innings in AAA before he would have been ready for a rotation spot in the big leagues. Its true that the team could sign some one new if these contracts are off the books, but does anyone think this organization would be able to find anyone better for any less money on the free agent market? I think any replacement brought in will not be from the top shelf guys available, they would be secondary guys who didn't get the big moeny from the big dollar contenders. Of course they'll want that big money to come and pitch in a place like Cincinnati that hasn't been in the play-offs in a long time. That would leave us with contracts not unlike the ones Harang and Arroyo have now given to pitchers who perform similarly to how Harang and Arroyo perform now. The difference being they'll be new contracts that will be on the books for longer. Purging Harang and Arroyo without having replacements from within available seems like a dead end to me.

2. Cordero is very pricey for a role with such questionable value, but "closer" seems unimportant until you don't have anyone to close and the team is coughing it up every day. I'm on record saying the team needs a channging of the guard in the pen in order to free up some cash for other needs. Unfortunately, Stewart was the guy in the high minors who could likely have filled that role successfully. If not him, then Roenicke was the next choice. Now the team needs more stability from Masset (shakey of late) or a big comeback out of Jared Burton (or of all people Bill Bray) if it wants to move on. It may be easier to get some one cheap on the market here than in the rotation, but there is no question that dealing Stewart and Roenicke will make the transition from Cordero and Weathers much more difficult.

3. Rolen is probably a decent upgrade from EdE (though I think EdE's offense is under-rated by many on here). But at $11 Million in 2010 with a shakey health outlook, its a big risk for a team with so many other needs and such a limited budget. The Reds are the team taking on the risk here. They overpaid in arms because the Jays were willing to walk away from the deal, while the Reds were fulfilling a man-love driven quest and gave in. The Reds should have called J.P.'s bluff and walked away themselves. This season is toast anyway. I'd bet the Reds could have acquired Rolen at the Winter Meetings for a lot less. That is, of course, only my specultaion and we'll never know, but I'll never be convinced that this team didn't overpay. EdE and Maloney should have been plenty to get it done. Waiting until the winter meetings would have meant that the team did not need the cash coming back to pay Rolen's salary for the rest of 2009 and would have automatically reduced the talent required to do the deal.

4. Selling off those arms for the Jays taking on some money was unwise. Keep the arms and deal Weathers and Willy if possible to recoup the cash. Deal what's left of Gonzo or Ramon. Sell lesser prospects for cash, but don't sell off the prospects who could make a difference. This team is flush with role player, bench player depth. Stewart was one of a very few who could possibly be a difference maker. Probably the only arm in the organization with that potential (Mike Leake is still unknown).

Making sense apparently isn't an option for Castellini any more since the day he brought in Baker. Your post makes nothing but sense, common sense.

What's so frustrating, is that any Tom, Dick, or Harry can see what you're saying here, so it goes to say that the reasons for doing what the REDS did defies logic, and there must be some other reason(s) for doing so, reason(s) that have nothing to do with giving the franchise an opportunity to win a World Series.

There's no argument that makes sense that disputes the fact that the franchise took about 5 steps (or 3 years) backwards when making this deal, for all of the reasons that you stated above. We should have been competing for a playoff spot in 2010, and a World Series appearance in 2011, and now we won't see this franchise win a playoff series for at least 5 seasons, and there's no reason to believe they will win one anytime after that as there is this ship is clearly adrift at this point. Who here can tell us now what the master plan is? I could before the trade, but not now.

[Kingspoint]

Since it was brought up...the Cordero signing was questionable. An expensive closer is the last piece of the pie one gets to win a Championship. The REDS could say that he was acquired to secure the bullpen that had been so shaky for so long. Isn't that what the bullpen coach is supposed to do? Why pay that much for someone who plays so little?

Is Rolen supposed to do the same thing? Will everyone all of a sudden hit better because Rolen is on the team? Not a chance. That's not how hitting works. Pitching may be effected that way, but hitting never does, not over the course of a season, anyway.

[Kingspoint]

If this was a business that operates the way the rest of the world does and the CEO traded away a young executive (EE) with several years of experience, who excelled at 3/4th's of his job (the Offense probably measures 3 times what the Defense does), and who will only get better, another executive who has been outstanding since his arrival and has Greenwich, CT pedigree (Josh Roenicke, son of Gary Roenicke), and another, about to become an executive trainee, newly graduated from Harvard Law School (Zach Stewart), for an aged executive who had trouble closing deals three years in a row except for a resurgance this season, but who is clearly declining in his skills and missing work all the time, and is extremely overpaid, that CEO would be berated by not only his board of executives, but by everyone in the entire organization. Everyone would be wondering what the direction of the company was, and they would wonder who's sleeping with whom.

[kaldaniels]

Originally Posted by Kingspoint

If this was a business that operates the way the rest of the world does and the CEO traded away a young executive (EE) with several years of experience, who excelled at 3/4th's of his job (the Offense probably measures 3 times what the Defense does), and who will only get better, another executive who has been outstanding since his arrival and has Greenwich, CT pedigree (Josh Roenicke, son of Gary Roenicke), and another, about to become an executive trainee, newly graduated from Harvard Law School (Zach Stewart), for an aged executive who had trouble closing deals three years in a row except for a resurgance this season, but who is clearly declining in his skills and missing work all the time, and is extremely overpaid, that CEO would be berated by not only his board of executives, but by everyone in the entire organization. Everyone would be wondering what the direction of the company was, and they would wonder who's sleeping with whom.

You lost me when you stated EE will only get better. That statement alone makes your premise false.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Originally Posted by mth123

Here is the issue with this trade. The consensus on this board seems to be that Harang, Arroyo and Cordero have contracts that must be purged for this team to re-tool and fill its holes on the staff and on the field. This deal is a step in the opposite direction:

1. Stewart was the only pitcher in the high minors with a remote possibility of filling a spot in the top three of the rotation. Like it or not, Harang and Arroyo are ticketed for those spots and will need to be replaced when they go. The other guys in the high minors - Maloney, Lecure even Wood - are all back of the rotation guys if they pan out. I get the idea that pitching prospects frequently fail. But IMO that doesn't mean they should be discarded, it simply means that you need more of them to increase the chance of successfully finding one of them. I do think Stewart probably needed another full year building innings in AAA before he would have been ready for a rotation spot in the big leagues. Its true that the team could sign some one new if these contracts are off the books, but does anyone think this organization would be able to find anyone better for any less money on the free agent market? I think any replacement brought in will not be from the top shelf guys available, they would be secondary guys who didn't get the big moeny from the big dollar contenders. Of course they'll want that big money to come and pitch in a place like Cincinnati that hasn't been in the play-offs in a long time. That would leave us with contracts not unlike the ones Harang and Arroyo have now given to pitchers who perform similarly to how Harang and Arroyo perform now. The difference being they'll be new contracts that will be on the books for longer. Purging Harang and Arroyo without having replacements from within available seems like a dead end to me.

2. Cordero is very pricey for a role with such questionable value, but "closer" seems unimportant until you don't have anyone to close and the team is coughing it up every day. I'm on record saying the team needs a channging of the guard in the pen in order to free up some cash for other needs. Unfortunately, Stewart was the guy in the high minors who could likely have filled that role successfully. If not him, then Roenicke was the next choice. Now the team needs more stability from Masset (shakey of late) or a big comeback out of Jared Burton (or of all people Bill Bray) if it wants to move on. It may be easier to get some one cheap on the market here than in the rotation, but there is no question that dealing Stewart and Roenicke will make the transition from Cordero and Weathers much more difficult.

3. Rolen is probably a decent upgrade from EdE (though I think EdE's offense is under-rated by many on here). But at $11 Million in 2010 with a shakey health outlook, its a big risk for a team with so many other needs and such a limited budget. The Reds are the team taking on the risk here. They overpaid in arms because the Jays were willing to walk away from the deal, while the Reds were fulfilling a man-love driven quest and gave in. The Reds should have called J.P.'s bluff and walked away themselves. This season is toast anyway. I'd bet the Reds could have acquired Rolen at the Winter Meetings for a lot less. That is, of course, only my specultaion and we'll never know, but I'll never be convinced that this team didn't overpay. EdE and Maloney should have been plenty to get it done. Waiting until the winter meetings would have meant that the team did not need the cash coming back to pay Rolen's salary for the rest of 2009 and would have automatically reduced the talent required to do the deal.

4. Selling off those arms for the Jays taking on some money was unwise. Keep the arms and deal Weathers and Willy if possible to recoup the cash. Deal what's left of Gonzo or Ramon. Sell lesser prospects for cash, but don't sell off the prospects who could make a difference. This team is flush with role player, bench player depth. Stewart was one of a very few who could possibly be a difference maker. Probably the only arm in the organization with that potential (Mike Leake is still unknown).

I just....love this post.

[OnBaseMachine]

John Manuel of Baseball America rated Zach Stewart as the second best prospect traded at the deadline. Number one was Brett Wallace.

[Kingspoint]

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

You lost me when you stated EE will only get better. That statement alone makes your premise false.

He will only get better because he's 26.

Rare is the player who gets worse from 26 to 27 and 28.