I expect one or more of Harang, Arroyo or Cordero to be traded this month

[osuceltic]

All three are likely to clear waivers. Any claiming team most likely would be a club like the Yankees -- unafraid of winning the claim and the ensuing salary commitment. Walt has proven he's willing to deal in August. A lot of the pre-deadline chatter (and dreaming) is over, and teams with serious postseason aspirations may still need to address some needs. And the Reds need to clear a little money off the books next season to fill some additional needs.

Personally, I think they acquired Rolen as a building block (and example) to go with Votto, Cueto, probably Phillips and, hopefully, Bruce. I think they see a core in place around those players, and they plan to try to fill holes around them. But they need a little payroll flexibility to do that. Which is where the August trade comes into play.

They need a SS, two outfielders, at least one starting pitcher and some bullpen depth. In a perfect world, they would get help from the minors for one of those positional needs (not sure who it is yet -- maybe Stubbs/Heisey - CF, or Frazier - LF), requiring outside acquisitions for "just" the SS and arms.

But I do think they will need to free up some money to make it all happen.

[RedEye]

Originally Posted by osuceltic

They need a SS, two outfielders, at least one starting pitcher and some bullpen depth. In a perfect world, they would get help from the minors for one of those positional needs (not sure who it is yet -- maybe Stubbs/Heisey - CF, or Frazier - LF), requiring outside acquisitions for "just" the SS and arms.

I'm inclined to agree with your prediction. One question: Don't you think one of Heisey/Stubbs/Gomes/Dickerson or some combo of them will fill at least one of those OF spots?

[osuceltic]

Originally Posted by RedEye

I'm inclined to agree with your prediction. One question: Don't you think one of Heisey/Stubbs/Gomes/Dickerson or some combo of them will fill at least one of those OF spots?

As I said -- hopefully. But I'm not sold on any of them just yet. Gomes and Dickerson are bench guys. Heisey/Stubbs/Frazier -- we just don't know. They aren't knocking the door down yet. I'd like to see all three called up in September, but I'll be shocked if that happens.

[osuceltic]

Forgot to mention -- they said during the radio broadcast last night that scouts were there watching Harang. They specifically mentioned the Yankees.

[Falls City Beer]

You might be right, oc. They've got almost no one to throw hundreds of innings next season. A starting prospect or fringe starter (often the same thing) will have to come back to the Reds in any deal. And even then, a 3/4 type will have to be acquired via FA this offseason.

[princeton]

but.... we're so close


here's my question. if someone makes a claim, do the Reds just say, "OK, he's yours. Enjoy"? I say that our GM, Bob Castellini, revokes waivers on Harang and Cordero but I'm not sure about Arroyo. I think that he SHOULD not revoke Arroyo but think that he might because, you know, we're close.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

No Volquez

Owings hurt

Stewart given away

If you trade Arroyo, Harang, or Cordero (or two of three) you are not playing for 2010.

Wasn't 2010 why they overpaid for Scott Rolen?

[Scrap Irony]

If Harang goes to the Yankees, they have a ton of chaff, fifth starter types in the minor leagues. And, while I'd certainly not choose that as my trading goal, it may be something Jocketty would look for.

[RedEye]

Originally Posted by osuceltic

As I said -- hopefully. But I'm not sold on any of them just yet. Gomes and Dickerson are bench guys. Heisey/Stubbs/Frazier -- we just don't know. They aren't knocking the door down yet. I'd like to see all three called up in September, but I'll be shocked if that happens.

I agree with this. I guess my point is that I can't believe the Reds would go out and acquire TWO starting OF types before 2010. I expect next year's OF will be Bruce/internal option/new acquisition.

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg

Wasn't 2010 why they overpaid for Scott Rolen?

Not necessarily. My guess is that they wanted to bring in talent.

[RedEye]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

You might be right, oc. They've got almost no one to throw hundreds of innings next season. A starting prospect or fringe starter (often the same thing) will have to come back to the Reds in any deal. And even then, a 3/4 type will have to be acquired via FA this offseason.

I have a feeling Harang will still be hanging around in 2010, along with Cueto and Owings. I expect Arroyo will be shown the door as long as Walt can get something (anything) of value in return for him.

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by RedEye

I have a feeling Harang will still be hanging around in 2010, along with Cueto and Owings. I expect Arroyo will be shown the door as long as Walt can get something (anything) of value in return for him.

He can easily get better in Arroyo's salary slot. But I wouldn't count on this organization to turn that salary space into an important single acquisition.

This pitching crisis can bring the big thinking that fixing it will require or it will result in the same nickel and dime thinking that got a 4 starter like Arroyo his extension in the first place.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by RedEye

I have a feeling Harang will still be hanging around in 2010, along with Cueto and Owings. I expect Arroyo will be shown the door as long as Walt can get something (anything) of value in return for him.

Here's my guess.

Arroyo and Weathers will be gone this month, even if there's no return. The issue will be getting the new team to take most of their salary commitments.

Harang will not go, as you said, unless the Reds get something of significant value for him. My expectation is that he stays because of the Volquez injury. Harang can still pitch, he just needs to deal with the homers allowed and needs some offensive support.

Cordero will not go. There is no replacement for him. Massett is a huge gamble at closer and they want to be decent next year.

Rhodes will not go. He should not go, he doesn't make enough money for a salary dump.

If he's healthy and a contender needs a catcher, I'd expect Ramon Hernandez might go. They'd keep him but he has a substantial contract, they'd opt to save the bucks if they can.

I could see Gomes being traded in August, someone may want an extra bat and he could bring some return.

I don't expect Gonzo, Owings or Taveras to go anywhere in August.

[Chip R]

Originally Posted by princeton

here's my question. if someone makes a claim, do the Reds just say, "OK, he's yours. Enjoy"? I say that our GM, Bob Castellini, revokes waivers on Harang and Cordero but I'm not sure about Arroyo. I think that he SHOULD not revoke Arroyo but think that he might because, you know, we're close.

They could but then they don't get anything back in return except salary relief. Even the Bucs aren't doing straight salary dumps. I would think that the Yankees would think twice about picking up either Arroyo or Harang since they play half their games in a park that makes GABP look like Petco.

[RedEye]

Originally Posted by Chip R

They could but then they don't get anything back in return except salary relief. Even the Bucs aren't doing straight salary dumps. I would think that the Yankees would think twice about picking up either Arroyo or Harang since they play half their games in a park that makes GABP look like Petco.

Yeah, I guess the Yanks have now painted themselves into the type of corner where they've got to get a whole staff full of Brandon Webbs.