Poll: Stewart; Top 10 Pitching Prospect in all of baseball?

[kaldaniels]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Toronto will make him a better pitcher than we would have. They produce groundball machines up there and Stewart already was one. They seem to get the absolute most out of their pitching prospects up there. Maybe I went slightly overboard with the comment, I was fairly bothered by the deal, but he is going to be very good for Toronto if they keep him in the rotation in the long run.

The reason Stewart isn't a Top 10 guy is because he still has a ways to go in terms of building up a starters workload. If Stewart were currently able to maintain his stuff and numbers over 150 minor league innings, he would have been a Top 10 pitching prospect in the minors. But right now he is probably 2 seasons away from being able to throw 180 innings in a year, which tempers his overall ranking.

Thanks Doug...that is a very fair analysis of Stewart if you ask me.

[GIDP]

this thread is awesome

[BLEEDS]

Isn't it though?

It's nice to get an idea from what others think about our Reds prospects, not just on the Reds, but overall.

The Famous Quote "don't fall in Love with your Prospects" has some serious value.

Thanks for the insight guys.

BTW, I did also wonder whether folks might include Stewart in the Top 10 Overall Reds Prospects (not just pitching), but I didn't want to mix it in with this discussion.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by BLEEDS

BTW, I did also wonder whether folks might include Stewart in the Top 10 Overall Reds Prospects (not just pitching), but I didn't want to mix it in with this discussion.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

I doubt there is anyone that didn't have Stewart in their Top 3 Reds prospects. I had him at #2.

[GIDP]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I doubt there is anyone that didn't have Stewart in their Top 3 Reds prospects. I had him at #2.

other than the thread starter

[BLEEDS]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I doubt there is anyone that didn't have Stewart in their Top 3 Reds prospects. I had him at #2.

I didn't track the daily tally, but all pre-season discussion I didn't see him in any top ten, only roughly mentioned here and there.

He wasn't even in many Reds top ten pitching prospect list discussions in May, which is why I asked the question and the poll, to see where folks had him after 3 months into this season.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by BLEEDS

I didn't track the daily tally, but all pre-season discussion I didn't see him in any top ten, only roughly mentioned here and there.

He wasn't even in many Reds top ten pitching prospect list discussions in May, which is why I asked the question and the poll, to see where folks had him after 3 months into this season.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Pre season no one knew he was going to be a starter, much less a dominant one who had the same stuff as he did out of the bullpen through 6 innings. As for not being in many Reds Top 10 pitching prospect lists in May.... where was that at? After last season I know that I had Stewart the reliever ranked as the Reds #2 pitching prospect.

[BLEEDS]

Here are a few things I found when searching for "prospects" on RZ:

BA's Reds Top 30 prospects, 1/31/09
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showt...30#post1796330
Stewart is #15, #14 according to RedsZone.

RZ's Top Ten Starting Pitching Prospects, 5/1/09
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showt...28#post1854728
His name is brought up as a starter material, but ranked no higher than #4 SP prospect

I also checked a lot of other sources for Reds prospect lists, especially near the draft, and I don't remember seeing Stewart in anyone's top ten, but maybe top 15 to 20 (overall).
That's basically where I think he stands, NOT top ten overall.
Someone I know found it hilarious that I could even fathom that there might be ten prospects better than Stewart. Maybe he wasn't in on the RZ voting or something (?).

I understand where you are coming from with this "rapid development" this season, but the kid never really started before, so it's still a stretch to think he can project to a starter in the bigs in a year or two. Sure he can do it, and like you said he probably will now that he has Toronto coaching him, who knows what the Reds could develop him into, being that we aren't exactly world renowned for our pitching development. I do agree that he was a top reliever prospect, with some potential at starting, but I'm not going to go much farther than that.

I am just glad we didn't have to give up Frazier, Fransisco, Cozart or anyone actually projected to be a Power Bat in the 3B/IF/LF types. We need to keep those guys around to lessen the risk of the washouts.
Most of our top 10-15 prospects are positions players so IMO we didn't give up "Top Prospects" in this deal, so to me we are still looking to make a run in 2010/2011, and have dealt a "possible" starter for a huge upgrade at 3B defensively, while still leaving us with multiple prospects ready to hit the bigs in 2010/2011 to fill the lineup card with.
IMO, if we had to give up a starting pitching prospect, I'd rather we keep Lotzar, Wood, Buck, Sulbaran, Smith, and Bailey who, IMO, are more solid as far as starting prospects are concerned.
I'm sure some will agree and some will disagree with that sentiment.

Thanks for the insight, and I know your opinions are well documented. I was hoping to get some others as well. Apparently I'll just have to do more searches

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by BLEEDS

I also checked a lot of other sources for Reds prospect lists, especially near the draft, and I don't remember seeing Stewart in anyone's top ten, but maybe top 15 to 20 (overall).

No one came out with Top lists prior to the draft, it was all of 2 months into the season at that time. Stewart was just rated by BA as the #2 prospect traded at the deadline. Brett Wallace was #1 and was a BA midseason Top 25 prospect in baseball.

That's basically where I think he stands, NOT top ten overall.
Someone I know found it hilarious that I could even fathom that there might be ten prospects better than Stewart. Maybe he wasn't in on the RZ voting or something (?).

Redszone voting in November 2008 means nothing for Stewarts worth as of August 2009. I can't even fathom there being more than 2 Reds prospects better than Stewart and thats if someone puts Frazier ahead of him, which I wouldn't.

I understand where you are coming from with this "rapid development" this season, but the kid never really started before, so it's still a stretch to think he can project to a starter in the bigs in a year or two.

Thats incorrect. He started in JC, as recently as 2007.

Most of our top 10-15 prospects are positions players so IMO we didn't give up "Top Prospects" in this deal, so to me we are still looking to make a run in 2010/2011, and have dealt a "possible" starter for a huge upgrade at 3B defensively, while still leaving us with multiple prospects ready to hit the bigs in 2010/2011 to fill the lineup card with.

Then you are the only one. Every publication out there who has rated the guys moved has Stewart as one of the best guys moved, and everyone outside of you that has expressed an opinion on it has Stewart as one of the Reds 3 or 4 best prospects.

IMO, if we had to give up a starting pitching prospect, I'd rather we keep Lotzar, Wood, Buck, Sulbaran, Smith, and Bailey who, IMO, are more solid as far as starting prospects are concerned.

Kyle Lotzkar and Dallas Buck have had serious injuries in their careers and both have had separate injuries again this year. The others I am willing to at least entertain you being right on, Bailey for sure.... but I wouldn't take any of the other guys over Stewart. His stuff is just on a different level and his numbers are as good as anyone on that list.

[BLEEDS]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

No one came out with Top lists prior to the draft, it was all of 2 months into the season at that time. Stewart was just rated by BA as the #2 prospect traded at the deadline. Brett Wallace was #1 and was a BA midseason Top 25 prospect in baseball.

I guess I don't correlate "top prospect traded" with "Top Prospects Overall", but yes, I have seen those reports.
I'm not saying we didn't necessarily overpay, but with the money thrown in, I'd have to say it did sway me even more the other way.
Prospects definitely have value, but I have no idea if Stewart + Roenicke <=> $7M (as has been reported)

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Redszone voting in November 2008 means nothing for Stewarts worth as of August 2009. I can't even fathom there being more than 2 Reds prospects better than Stewart and thats if someone puts Frazier ahead of him, which I wouldn't.

Understood, but even as recently as May he was barely in the Conversation of Top Ten starting pitching Reds prospects. Two months later he's the top prospect of all? All because of 14 starts? That's not stretching it a bit?!? Who knows, he may never have a good start again, or he is a lock to win the Cy Young, WAY too early to tell.

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Thats incorrect. He started in JC, as recently as 2007.

Right, I know he started in JC, but quickly moved to the pen in major college, and not in pro ball until this year.

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Then you are the only one. Every publication out there who has rated the guys moved has Stewart as one of the best guys moved, and everyone outside of you that has expressed an opinion on it has Stewart as one of the Reds 3 or 4 best prospects.

Again, I didn't see him ranked anywhere on anyone's top ten lists anywhere recently, but again I don't live on these boards, especially in the minors forum, so maybe I missed it.
Again, the reason for my post and poll.
Seems at least a couple folks "outside of me" said he's not a top ten pitching prospect for the Reds, so I guess you are incorrect there.

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Kyle Lotzkar and Dallas Buck have had serious injuries in their careers and both have had separate injuries again this year. The others I am willing to at least entertain you being right on, Bailey for sure.... but I wouldn't take any of the other guys over Stewart. His stuff is just on a different level and his numbers are as good as anyone on that list.

Again, may just be me - though I doubt it - but I'm not completely sold on 14 starts. Sure he's got good stuff, but it's a big leap from pen to starting, let alone the challenge to take on moving to the Bigs after that.
I know you are high on Bailey and he WAS a consensus Overall Top Prospect, and the jury is still out on him if he will make it in the Bigs.

Again, thanks for the insight, I appreciate your opinions.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by BLEEDS

I guess I don't correlate "top prospect traded" with "Top Prospects Overall", but yes, I have seen those reports.
I'm not saying we didn't necessarily overpay, but with the money thrown in, I'd have to say it did sway me even more the other way.
Prospects definitely have value, but I have no idea if Stewart + Roenicke <=> $7M (as has been reported)

You should correlate the two because thats how the lists are made. As for the trade and paying or overpaying.... doesn't change the value of Stewart.

Understood, but even as recently as May he was barely in the Conversation of Top Ten starting pitching Reds prospects. Two months later he's the top prospect of all? All because of 14 starts? That's not stretching it a bit?!? Who knows, he may never have a good start again, or he is a lock to win the Cy Young, WAY too early to tell.

No, its not really stretching it a bit because he showed as a starter that he has a sinking fastball in the 92-96 MPH range that he carried into the 6th inning of games. He showed he had a slider that rated out as a plus pitch. And honestly, in May he was not barely in the conversation for a Reds Top 10 starting pitching prospect. Simply because Redszone, who really is full of no ones (myself included) didn't understand what Stewart was doing (especially since he was in Sarasota at the time and you get zero information from there) fully doesn't change what the Reds knew or what we eventually did find out.

Again, I didn't see him ranked anywhere on anyone's top ten lists anywhere recently, but again I don't live on these boards, especially in the minors forum, so maybe I missed it.

Anyone's list? Who is making list right now that should be considered a reliable source? Who do you trust and when was the last time they made a list? No one that is making a list that should be trusted is going to not rate Zach Stewart as the Reds top pitching prospect and outside of their Top 3 prospects (before he was traded of course).

Again, the reason for my post and poll.
Seems at least a couple folks "outside of me" said he's not a top ten pitching prospect for the Reds, so I guess you are incorrect there.

Then I must suggest that they have no clue what they are talking about. The Reds, Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus.... they all thought he was the Reds top pitching prospect. I would love for those 5 people who voted that he wasn't a Reds Top 10 pitcher to come into this thread and suggest why and give me 10 guys who are better pitching prospects than him.

Again, may just be me - though I doubt it - but I'm not completely sold on 14 starts. Sure he's got good stuff, but it's a big leap from pen to starting, let alone the challenge to take on moving to the Bigs after that.
I know you are high on Bailey and he WAS a consensus Overall Top Prospect, and the jury is still out on him if he will make it in the Bigs.

You aren't going to be sold on him until he isn't a prospect then and that relies doesn't matter then. And that likely applies to every pitching prospect, so why is it different for Stewart? Simply because he hasn't started for a long time?

[BLEEDS]

SO if the Top Prospect traded was Devin Mesoraco, that would make him the Top Prospect in all of baseball?

Thanks for your opinion Doug.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by BLEEDS

SO if the Top Prospect traded was Devin Mesoraco, that would make him the Top Prospect in all of baseball?

Thanks for your opinion Doug.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

No, but Devin Mesoraco wouldn't be on the same level as a lot of the guys traded. Zach Stewart is a borderline A- type prospect right now. Devin Mesoraco is more like a C+ type of guy right now. There is a huge difference. Stewart isn't the top prospect in baseball, but he is a Top 75 prospect in all of baseball.

[LoganBuck]

Seriously BLEEDS have you ever even seen the guy pitch? If you would have you would know that you are wrong. As a reliever last year he was special, and then when he moved into the rotation, it was obvious that he was able to carry his dominance over. Prospect rankings change from draft to draft, season to season, and from month to month. Zach Stewart checks all the boxes of a guy with serious upward trajectory.

[GIDP]

Originally Posted by BLEEDS

SO if the Top Prospect traded was Devin Mesoraco, that would make him the Top Prospect in all of baseball?

Thanks for your opinion Doug.

PEACE

-BLEEDS