Homer Bailey

[jojo]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Wouldn't replacing a 7.06 ERA in the rotation (even with a 6.06 ERA) make for a clear, meaningful improvement?

No one is saying he shouldn't pitch out the rest of this lost season. But if he can't put up an ERA under 7.00 (let alone 6.00), anything- and I mean ANYTHING- would be a meaningful improvement over him.

I don't think it's cliff notes Shakespeare to suggest it entirely depends.

This season? Who cares? The Reds are better served with Homer in the rotation IMHO.

Next year? Who knows? Without specifics to give context, it's kind of an impossible argument to have let alone settle.

I do know this. It's not impossible for Homer version '09 to pitch exactly as he has and post an ERA 2 runs better than he has to this point.

[CTA513]

Originally Posted by BRM

I'd like to see them find better pitchers regardless of how Homer finishes this season.

Probably not going to happen unless someone takes on Arroyo and Harangs contracts.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by M2

I think it's criminal to hand a pitcher that bad a job.

My take is he's got until the end of this season to show signs of life and if he doesn't then the Reds are honor bound to find better pitchers.

I don't think anyone is arguing the Reds aren't honor bound to find better pitchers-regardless of Homers era over the next 50 or so innings.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by jojo

I don't think it's cliff notes Shakespeare to suggest it entirely depends.

This season? Who cares? The Reds are better served with Homer in the rotation IMHO.

Next year? Who knows? Without specifics to give context, it's kind of an impossible argument to have let alone settle.

I do know this. It's not impossible for Homer version '09 to pitch exactly as he has and post an ERA 2 runs better than he has to this point.

Which would still put him with an ERA over 5. That's a pretty ugly "best case scenario."

It's also not impossible for the Reds to contend this year.

[Patrick Bateman]

Originally Posted by M2

I think it's criminal to hand a pitcher that bad a job.

My take is he's got until the end of this season to show signs of life and if he doesn't then the Reds are honor bound to find better pitchers.

That's what I'm thinking too.

If Bailey has truly made progress this season like many people think, then he should presumably be able to start getting some better results (as his numbers are so bad it would likely be imposssible to do so).

[Patrick Bateman]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Which would still put him with an ERA over 5. That's a pretty ugly "best case scenario."

It's also not impossible for the Reds to contend this year.

That's not a best case scenario. That's a best case scenario under the thought that he wont make one inch of progress.

Presumably, if Bailey actually improves his pitching, he could lower his ERA far below 5.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Which would still put him with an ERA over 5. That's a pretty ugly "best case scenario."

Thats not a best case scenario. Its actually a bad case scenario where over the next 10-12 starts he will get this year he makes zero improvements and then has 25+ next year and makes zero improvements.

Best case scenario would be quite a bit different than that.... like Homer learns to be consistently in the strikezone and everything trends the right direction big time.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Which would still put him with an ERA over 5. That's a pretty ugly "best case scenario."

It's not a best case scenario. It's a scenario in which the criteria in this thread would suggest he's improved.

Originally Posted by Benihana

It's also not impossible for the Reds to contend this year.

Wanna buy my playoff tickets?

[Patrick Bateman]

Originally Posted by jojo

I don't think anyone is arguing the Reds aren't honor bound to find better pitchers-regardless of Homers era over the next 50 or so innings.

Well it's not like it's 50 innings in a vacuum. It's added on to his work this year, and during his other stints in the big leagues. At some point, those numbers begin to add up, and at some point you have to make a decision based on the sample size.

It's like if I asked you to give me one penny, you'd probably do so, because it's not a big deal. At some point, if I keep asking you for those pennies, you'd have to stop or you'd go broke.

[bucksfan2]

Clay Bucholtz 08 and 09 ERA was 6.75 and 6.05. I wonder if Red Sox fans are itching to jettison him as eagerly as some Reds fans are?

[Patrick Bateman]

Originally Posted by bucksfan2

Clay Bucholtz 08 and 09 ERA was 6.75 and 6.05. I wonder if Red Sox fans are itching to jettison him as eagerly as some Reds fans are?

Well I was just flipping through SOSH a second ago, and they seemed willing to remove him from the rotation for a version of Paul Byrd that hasn't pitched in almost a year.

[Eric_the_Red]

Originally Posted by bucksfan2

Clay Bucholtz 08 and 09 ERA was 6.75 and 6.05. I wonder if Red Sox fans are itching to jettison him as eagerly as some Reds fans are?

Actually I think some are. Many are starting to view him as a AAAA pitcher.

Not saying I agree, just sayin'.

[RedsManRick]

If the Reds had some other hot top prospect and needed to clear out a rotation spot for him, I'd send him to the bullpen. But that's not the case, this is a team in desperate need of upside. Homer needs major league experience. Give it to him.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by Austin Kearns

Well it's not like it's 50 innings in a vacuum. It's added on to his work this year, and during his other stints in the big leagues. At some point, those numbers begin to add up, and at some point you have to make a decision based on the sample size.

It's like if I asked you to give me one penny, you'd probably do so, because it's not a big deal. At some point, if I keep asking you for those pennies, you'd have to stop or you'd go broke.

I agree. But right now, using the analogy, you've only bought about 1 and a half burritos from taco bell with the pennies given up....

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Thats not a best case scenario. Its actually a bad case scenario where over the next 10-12 starts he will get this year he makes zero improvements and then has 25+ next year and makes zero improvements.

Best case scenario would be quite a bit different than that.... like Homer learns to be consistently in the strikezone and everything trends the right direction big time.

That's fine (and I'd really like for it to happen.) My only point is that Homer needs to start showing some improvement this year before he is written into the rotation for all of 2010. And I just mean a little improvement, which I don't think is too much to ask.

Ask Orioles fans how long they waited around for Daniel Cabrera to gain consistency and realize his potential.

Actually, can you name me a pitcher put up as big of stinkers as Homer with over 100+ IP in the majors that turned into a very good pitcher within 2 years?