Overdrafting and Overslotting

[Benihana]

The Pirates have caught on. Apparently so have the Royals, after awarding the highest bonus ever for a 4th round pick today. Maybe the Reds are just a couple years behind the curve set by these teams? By the time the Reds catch on, the CBA will be amended to preclude this type of small-market creativity.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=1486

And please spare me the Tucker Barnhardt example. If we ever want to compete, we have to start taking chances on first round talents who slide, and pay them over slot to get them signed. I'm talking seven figure-type players. I liked the Sulbaran pick last year, but the Reds did very little to follow up this year.

If the Reds were to draft three such players every year and give them what they needed to sign (usually ~$1MM), and only one of them turned out to be an average major leaguer- it would make for a great ROI. The problem is, I'm not sure guys like Chris Buckley even know what ROI means. He's too busy staffing the minor league system for depth.

(As an aside, gotta love the message this sends to Aaron Crow, who has reportedly turned down the Royals' $3MM offer. If you don't take it, we'll give it to somebody else. Have fun with Matt Harrington!)

EDIT: Add the Orioles to the mix now as well.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/0...r-for-1mm.html

[dougdirt]

You do know how much the Reds spent on the international market last year right? How about how they landed Juan Duran when no one else knew he was even available to be signed? I think being a little creative for a small market in the minors isn't something this team is behind the 8 ball on.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

You do know how much the Reds spent on the international market last year right? How about how they landed Juan Duran when no one else knew he was even available to be signed? I think being a little creative for a small market in the minors isn't something this team is behind the 8 ball on.

How long are they (and you) going to rest on that one?

They spent ~$5MM on international talent last year. They also didn't have a sandwich or second round pick to pay, and other than Sulbaran they hardly overdrafted/overslotted any of their picks. They spent <$1MM this year on international talent, and again have hardly overdrafted/overslotted any of their picks (not to mention have yet to sign their top two "signability" picks.) Sounds like progress!

For this kind of strategy to have an impact, it has to be sustained. Not "Woohoo! We signed two 16 year-olds last year and we're packing it in and done taking chances for the next couple years."

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Benihana

How long are they (and you) going to rest on that one?

They spent ~$5MM on international talent last year. They also didn't have a sandwich or second round pick to pay, and other than Sulbaran they hardly overdrafted/overslotted any of their picks. They spent <$1MM this year on international talent, and again have hardly overdrafted/overslotted any of their picks. Sounds like progress!

For this kind of strategy to have an impact, it has to be sustained. Not "Woohoo! We signed two 16 year-olds last year and we're packing it in for the next couple years."

I am not resting on it, but I don't think we should just ignore it either. I am curious as to where you got your less than $1M amount on the international market.... because that isn't accurate. As for overslot drafting, deals are just now starting to be approved. Lets wait until the 18th to see how many guys they went over slot on.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I am not resting on it, but I don't think we should just ignore it either. I am curious as to where you got your less than $1M amount on the international market.... because that isn't accurate. As for overslot drafting, deals are just now starting to be approved. Lets wait until the 18th to see how many guys they went over slot on.

Who else is even left to be excited about? Theoretically they could sign one of the Miami SS (doubtful) but there aren't any premium talents that they took a flyer on (unless I'm missing someone.)

As far as the international signings go, we are talking about premium players here. Last I checked, they gave Valor $600K and we haven't heard of anyone getting anything else substantial. Of course, big money isn't the only indication of a player's talent, and these guys have a high washout rate, but it would be nice to be in on some of the top prospects every now and then. Yorman looks good so far and Duran and Sulbaran obviously have promise. But why not take the $4-$5MM they seem to piss away every year on a Coffey, Stanton, Castro, Lincoln, Taveras, etc. etc. etc. and use it towards really revamping player development.

If I'm the Reds, here's how I look at it:

Every year, I'd like to bring in 4-5 premium talents be it through the draft or internationally. That usually means million dollar guys. Sure maybe 1 turns into an All-Star, 1 or 2 turn into starters, and the other two or three washout, but that's a good start. I'd like to sign at least 20-25 other draft picks/international guys, and hopefully some of those guys can end up being major league filler (not starters but role/bench players)- guys like Rosales, Janish, Fisher, Roenicke, etc.

If you can get those role players (maybe 2-3 out of every draft/int'l class), you don't have to pay millions each year to the Castros, Taverases, Stantons, Lincolns, Coffeys, etc. of the world. None of those guys were ever expected to be difference makers, and if you replace them with replacement level players you don't lose much in production, but you gain the financial flexibility to be able to bring in talent from the ground-up. It wouldn't require that much- maybe $2-4MM more per year than they're currently dedicating to their developmental budget. That could be had in any one of those veteran player's contracts. That's just what I'd do, anyway.

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by Benihana

The Pirates have caught on.

That's as far as I needed to read.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Who else is even left to be excited about? Theoretically they could sign one of the Miami SS (doubtful) but there aren't any premium talents that they took a flyer on (unless I'm missing someone.)

Unfortunately we aren't paid to know who is left to be excited about. However I would say that at the very least the Reds drafted about 12 guys with Top 5 round talent. Leake, Boxberger, Hamilton, Joseph, Fleury, Tuttle, Serrano, Barnhart, Johnson, Fowler, Marrero and Perez. No, there aren't any other 1st round talents (at least at the time of the draft) in there, but they did take some guys with good talent a little further down who should have gone higher. I can't suggest which idea is better.... to sign 1 guy past the 1st round to a 1.5M bonus or to grab 3-4 guys in the $250-$500,000 range in later rounds, but I do think a good argument can be made for both.

As far as the international signings go, we are talking about premium players here. Last I checked, they gave Valor $600K and we haven't heard of anyone getting anything else substantial. Of course, big money isn't the only indication of a player's talent, and these guys have a high washout rate, but it would be nice to be in on some of the top prospects every now and then.

The international class isn't always even (granted neither is the draft, but the pool is much larger in the draft). This year, at least to me, it seemed there wasn't the same type of talent on the market as there was last year. However the guys this year got paid MORE than they did last year. The Reds put in a few bids on the big guys, but they seemed to stay away from the mid range guys who were likely 750,000 guys last year who got 1.5-2M this year.

Yorman looks good so far and Duran and Sulbaran obviously have promise.
But why not take the $4-$5MM they seem to piss away every year on a Coffey, Stanton, Castro, Lincoln, Taveras, etc. etc. etc. and use it towards really revamping player development.

I am with you on this one. Of course I might also just try to spend that kind of money wisely on the 25 man roster too. The problem is, they don't seem to think they are throwing away the money at the time. Thats a problem, and I don't really think we can begin to address why it happens because everyone in baseball does it every year just about.

If I'm the Reds, here's how I look at it:

Every year, I'd like to bring in 4-5 premium talents be it through the draft or internationally. That usually means million dollar guys. Sure maybe 1 turns into an All-Star, 1 or 2 turn into starters, and the other two or three washout, but that's a good start. I'd like to sign at least 20-25 other draft picks/international guys, and hopefully some of those guys can end up being major league filler (not starters but role/bench players)- guys like Rosales, Janish, Fisher, Roenicke, etc.

I think they look at the end result of what you want the same way. However the system was so bare when Bowden left that we HAD to sign crappy vets to deals because we didn't have guys like Janish, Rosales or Fisher in the system to come up and play for the league minimum. It doesn't help that we have a manager who doesn't like rookies, but we finally do seem to have the depth needed to fill the bullpen and bench from the minors. I think we are going to see the benefits of that come to fruition in the next few years with very few small time 2-3M signings of vets to play backup/bullpen roles and leaving that money to up a few extra offers on actual starters on the market.

[redsmetz]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

It doesn't help that we have a manager who doesn't like rookies, but we finally do seem to have the depth needed to fill the bullpen and bench from the minors. I think we are going to see the benefits of that come to fruition in the next few years with very few small time 2-3M signings of vets to play backup/bullpen roles and leaving that money to up a few extra offers on actual starters on the market.

I continue to disagree that Dusty doesn't like rookies. I think he's done a very good job of sticking with our young players. I really don't see this complaint, in particular.

[Danny Serafini]

Maybe it's just me, but if the Royals and Pirates are going in one direction, I really want to go in the other.

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by Benihana

The Pirates have caught on. Apparently so have the Royals, after awarding the highest bonus ever for a 4th round pick today. Maybe the Reds are just a couple years behind the curve set by these teams? By the time the Reds catch on, the CBA will be amended to preclude this type of small-market creativity.


(As an aside, gotta love the message this sends to Aaron Crow, who has reportedly turned down the Royals' $3MM offer. If you don't take it, we'll give it to somebody else. Have fun with Matt Harrington!)



http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/0...r-for-1mm.html

So, giving in to players who fall becuase of signability issues is OK, but so is holding firm on your #1 pick????

I'd say that the Royals need to sign Crow at all costs.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

So, giving in to players who fall becuase of signability issues is OK, but so is holding firm on your #1 pick????

I'd say that the Royals need to sign Crow at all costs.

Of course they do. And Crow needs to sign this year at all costs. And both sides will get it done.

I just think it's funny to watch as their negotiations get more intense.

Meanwhile, keep being arrogant about the Reds vis a vis the Pirates. If the Reds don't pick a direction and stick with it soon, they could find themselves looking up at the Pirates in the years to come, especially if the Pirates ever decide to keep any of their assets.

[Mario-Rijo]

Pissing away money on Coffey? Doesn't seem like they had the wrong guy pitching but perhaps pissed some dollars away as they always do in the coaching aspect of it all.

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Meanwhile, keep being arrogant about the Reds vis a vis the Pirates. If the Reds don't pick a direction and stick with it soon, they could find themselves looking up at the Pirates in the years to come, especially if the Pirates ever decide to keep any of their assets.

Every few years a bunch of posters come on board and pimp the Pirates and the direction they are taking.

And every year they stink just as badly.

Of course, one of these years the Pirates will fall into a winning season.

But never bet against a streak continuing.

The Pirates look further today from fielding a winning team than they looked last year at this time.

[lidspinner]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

Every few years a bunch of posters come on board and pimp the Pirates and the direction they are taking.

And every year they stink just as badly.

Of course, one of these years the Pirates will fall into a winning season.

But never bet against a streak continuing.

The Pirates look further today from fielding a winning team than they looked last year at this time.

I agree with this to the fullest extent of agreeing.....HOWEVER, this year I am going to be the guy who "pimps" the Pirates....They look to have a good corp of young guns both Pitching and Hitting, if these guys can stay hungry and not get to depressed that they are playing for the Pirates, I see them competing in a year or 3......now if the coachign can coach them up is another deal

[lollipopcurve]

They spent <$1MM this year on international talent

I believe Gammons had them at 3.8 million this year, one of the top teams in baseball. I don't know if the number is accurate, but he reported it.

Since Castellini took over, the Reds have made a lot of headway in their approach to signing amateur talent. They are drafting and signing guys who drop in the draft -- maybe not in the fashion some would like, but it is instructive to remember that most draftees fail to reach the majors -- and they are now legitimate players in Latin America. I think that's about all you can ask. To rail against the franchise for being shortsighted in its approach to signing amateur talent lacks perspective, in my opinion, concerning both the advances the team has made and the scope of effort required to be competitive in those markets.

Note: Sano remains unsigned by anyone, and there are now some rumblings that his case may be similar to Edward Salcedo's last year (a guy who was initially reputed to be the plum prospect and on the verge of signing a big deal, who later turned out to be older than advertised, never signing at all). So let's wait a while before declaring the Pirates the best bounty hunters in the land.