Juan Fransisco is now a Louisville Bat!

[pahster]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I agree with you that only in extreme cases does the K part come into play. Guys who walk a lot can also K a lot. Guys who don't walk but make contact 90+% of the time also can have success.

Here is the chart you asked for, but I limited it to 1990-2008 to keep it at 4500+ players rather than 11,000 guys. 300 at Bats was the cut off.

Doug, why don't you turn this figure into a line graph? Such a presentation is more appropriate for these data since BB% (and K/BB and whatnot) are continuous rather than categorical.

[11larkin11]

Originally Posted by osuceltic

Yep, .281, 22, 74, .500 slugging, .820 OPS. I'd say he was holding his own.

Todd Frazier has good numbers too. Better OBP, worse power. One guy gives you an extra walk every five games, the other guy gives you about 70 percent more HR power.

Neither guy is likely to help the Reds on opening day in 2010, so I think all this wailing and gnashing is overblown.

It gets right back to the fact that there are several ways to skin a cat, but many on this board refuse to accept that. Productive big-leaguers come in different packages with different skills. Successful teams are built with different philosophies. The sun doesn't rise and set with OBP or walk rates. In the case of Francisco, I look at a 22-year-old kid reaching AAA with the above numbers, who doesn't have great strike zone recognition, and think, "just imagine what he can do when he becomes a little more selective." Maybe he will, maybe not, but he's starting with some pretty impressive talent. That's harder to teach than the strike zone.

Its not really that big of a gap. Frazier's Slugging is only about .15 points lower than Franciscos. One or two of those doubles go over and its even

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by osuceltic

Yep, .281, 22, 74, .500 slugging, .820 OPS. I'd say he was holding his own.

Holding his own? Sure. Looking good going forward? Questionable. I do really like what he has done over his last 250 PA or so with his under 4 to 1 K/BB rate over that time. I would really like it if he kept improving it though because its just much easier to produce at a high level when you are sporting a good ratio.

Todd Frazier has good numbers too. Better OBP, worse power. One guy gives you an extra walk every five games, the other guy gives you about 70 percent more HR power.

Not quite. One guy finds first base about 4% more and still averages just 0.015 fewer bases per hit (SLG).

It gets right back to the fact that there are several ways to skin a cat, but many on this board refuse to accept that. Productive big-leaguers come in different packages with different skills. Successful teams are built with different philosophies. The sun doesn't rise and set with OBP or walk rates. In the case of Francisco, I look at a 22-year-old kid reaching AAA with the above numbers, who doesn't have great strike zone recognition, and think, "just imagine what he can do when he becomes a little more selective." Maybe he will, maybe not, but he's starting with some pretty impressive talent. That's harder to teach than the strike zone.

Certainly guys can be successful in different ways. Like I have said before, Francisco has something you can't teach. The issue has always been what you can teach, the plate discipline, has always been twice as bad as terrible for him. Lately it has gotten into the acceptable range. Thats a good start, but its a pretty small sample size and he has never shown it before. Lets hope he not only continues to perform at his current rate, but continues to improve his K/BB.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by pahster

Doug, why don't you turn this figure into a line graph? Such a presentation is more appropriate for these data since BB% (and K/BB and whatnot) are continuous rather than categorical.

Because I was working with nearly 5000 data points, which basically just makes it look like a jumbled mess.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Because I was working with nearly 5000 data points, which basically just makes it look like a jumbled mess.

Heh, but if there's a linear relationship...

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp

Heh, but if there's a linear relationship...

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by GIDP

Todd Frazier is far and away better offensive player right now and its not really even close.

He absolutely projects much better going forward that's for sure, I agree though Frazier is the far more valuable commodity.

Look all these numbers are great and they do prove the point but sometimes it's just about logic. Juan swings at stuff that few have proven they can continue to hit when they reach the majors it really is that simple. And if you can't hit it at that level that is what you are gonna get a steady diet of. The stats in the minors are telling to some extent but never paint a complete picture. Some guys who look like world beaters fall flat on their face eventually and some just drop off. Juan without a very sizable shift in philosophy/execution WILL fall flat on his face. I say once major league pitchers get a "book" on him (which shouldn't take long, assuming AAA pitchers can't exploit him) he'll be Brandon Larson V 2.0, seriously he'll be lucky to hit .200 without walks which means his power is absolutely meaningless.

[lollipopcurve]

The issue has always been what you can teach, the plate discipline, has always been twice as bad as terrible for him. Lately it has gotten into the acceptable range. Thats a good start, but its a pretty small sample size and he has never shown it before.

Always? He's always been young. And why do you think his plate discipline has "gotten into the acceptable range"? Sample size? Luck? If it isn't those things, what is it, and does it stand a good chance of continuing to inform his play?

[lollipopcurve]

Juan without a very sizable shift in philosophy/execution WILL fall flat on his face. I say once major league pitchers get a "book" on him (which shouldn't take long, assuming AAA pitchers can't exploit him) he'll be Brandon Larson V 2.0, seriously he'll be lucky to hit .200 without walks which means his power is absolutely meaningless.

Time will tell. But, based on the 100% certainty with which you foresee his future, my guess is that he's already proven you wrong more than once.

[bucksfan2]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

Francisco was starting to make some strides with his plate discipline and now the Reds go and do this. Man oh man. I would've left him in Carolina the rest of the year and maybe part of next year too.

You leave him in AA ball for too long and you get a very short time in making a decision as to whether or not he can play at the major league level. We have seen even the top prospects struggle at the major league level and we have seen others ride the bus to and from Louisville often when the first come up. If you burn two more years with Fransisco in the minors you have to keep him on your major league roster. Not a very productive way to break a kid into the majors.

For the most part I think JF is a very undervalued prospect. He looks to have the potential to hit 40+ HRS a year at the major league level. He does have some contact issues, but if he can improve his K/BB rate he could be a monster. Those guys just don't come up through the minors too often.

[GIDP]

Holding Frazier back when you know hes more prepared to play in the majors just so you can find out if Juan is going to be able to ever get it done at an acceptable rate in the minors screams incompetence to me.

Juan doesnt really have contact issues. He has just ADHD when it comes to hitting. I dont think its a stretch to suggest that Juan is going to magically develop faster just because you moved him up a level.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by GIDP

Juan doesnt really have contact issues. He has just ADHD when it comes to hitting. I dont think its a stretch to suggest that Juan is going to magically develop faster just because you moved him up a level.

What if they medicate him following the promotion?

[GIDP]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

What if they medicate him following the promotion?

They should medicate before the promotion

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by GIDP

They should medicate before the promotion

What if Louisville has the better doctors?

[osuceltic]

Originally Posted by GIDP

Holding Frazier back when you know hes more prepared to play in the majors just so you can find out if Juan is going to be able to ever get it done at an acceptable rate in the minors screams incompetence to me.

Maybe the Reds know more than you know about Francisco and Frazier. Just maybe.