How would you rate the Reds' 2009 draft signings?

[bubbachunk]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

HS catchers are the epitome of a poor draft choice. Right up there with college 2B and HS flamethrowers with questionable mechanics and poor control. Sure, you could name a Johnny Bench, Chase Utley, or Nolan Ryan. But that's the extreme exception.

Stassi has bust written all over him. Questionable bat, HS catcher, but good intangibles? No thank you at any price. I'd rather have Barnhart and the cash for other choices.

This idea that Cincinnati somehow went Lindner-style cheap is laughable.

No, don't you understand they did? You have to make assumptions that the players left on the board were only passed up because the FO did not want to spend any extra money. You must not assume that the players they actually took were ones that they scouted and liked better. That would be crazy talk.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

HS catchers are the epitome of a poor draft choice. Right up there with college 2B and HS flamethrowers with questionable mechanics and poor control. Sure, you could name a Johnny Bench, Chase Utley, or Nolan Ryan. But that's the extreme exception.

Stassi has bust written all over him. Questionable bat, HS catcher, but good intangibles? No thank you at any price. I'd rather have Barnhart and the cash for other choices.

This idea that Cincinnati somehow went Lindner-style cheap is laughable.

I don't care all that much about Stassi specifically.

My point in all of this is that I wish the Reds would take some more chances with "first round talent" that slides due to signability reasons. It certainly doesn't have to be a HS catcher- whether it's von Rosenberg, Oliver, Bailey, Cain, Stassi, etc. I'd just like to see the Reds go after some "premium talent" as opposed to constantly churning out role players. If you look at Buckley's record over the past four drafts- that's what he has repeatedly done, whether you're looking at the first round or the fourth or the fourteenth. It's definitely good to have some of those (especially in the later rounds) but when you've failed to secure the premium guys in the first round- whether it's because their price tag is too high (Mesoraco over Porcello) or because you slightly misjudge (Alonso over Beckham) or because you simply whiff (Stubbs over Lincecum), you may want to try to secure some premium talent in the later rounds. Unless you have the best scouts that can find the premium talent (which the Reds clearly don't) it means that you'll have to pay a couple hundred grand extra. It's a risk worth taking, IMO, especially in light of all of the other factors.

They did it once with Sulbaran last year, and he is now one of the better pitching prospects in the system (and one of the few if not the only one with alleged TOR potential.) Why not take some chances and do it a few more times, especially when it costs less than half of a Taveras?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Do the A's have money that grows on vegetable vines?

Because they sure seem to spend more than the Reds. They signed Green for more than Leake and they still had enough to sign Stassi. And they signed Inoa last year, so don't go crying Yorman on me.

As far as Bailey goes, TJ surgery sure seems to scare you away from him, but it didn't scare you enough to draft Mesoraco in the first round and give him millions?!?!?!

The A's don't have money that grows on trees. They have spent well lately. They still didn't even spend a million more than the Reds did this year and you are praising the A's and dogging the Reds. Green isn't as good of a prospect as Leake, so the fact that they paid more for him doesn't mean a thing to me.

As for Bailey/Mesoraco.... the difference is not only did Mesoraco play his senior season as a catcher, he threw very well. No one has seen Bailey throw post surgery. And if you recall, I wasn't for the Mesoraco pick prior to the draft because I don't like catchers taken inside the top 5 rounds because their bust rate is 95% (college and high school is irrelevent, both bust at the same rate historically and it makes every other position look like a smart pick).

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by bubbachunk

No, don't you understand they did? You have to make assumptions that the players left on the board were only passed up because the FO did not want to spend any extra money. You must not assume that the players they actually took were ones that they scouted and liked better. That would be crazy talk.

When Chris Buckley and co. "like" a guy more than most that actually turns out to be a premium talent, let me know.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Benihana

When Chris Buckley and co. "like" a guy more than most that actually turns out to be a premium talent, let me know.

When some other team has the same kind of track record that you speak of, let me know. Everyone hits. Everyone misses.

[bubbachunk]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

When some other team has the same kind of track record that you speak of, let me know. Everyone hits. Everyone misses.

Nope only the Reds miss.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

The A's don't have money that grows on trees. They have spent well lately.

According to the last few posters, they spent horribly on Stassi. I disagree- even if he ends up being a bust, I'd take chances like that every year. If you hit on one of three, you're doing well.

They still didn't even spend a million more than the Reds did this year and you are praising the A's and dogging the Reds.

I'd rather spend more on a few premium guys than get a boatload of role players. Chris Buckley obviously disagrees, and possibly as a result has failed to produce a premium player so far.

Green isn't as good of a prospect as Leake, so the fact that they paid more for him doesn't mean a thing to me.

Again, disagree. Only time will tell. I like Leake. I loved Green- especially for the SS-deficient Reds.

As for Bailey/Mesoraco.... the difference is not only did Mesoraco play his senior season as a catcher, he threw very well. No one has seen Bailey throw post surgery. And if you recall, I wasn't for the Mesoraco pick prior to the draft because I don't like catchers taken inside the top 5 rounds because their bust rate is 95% (college and high school is irrelevent, both bust at the same rate historically and it makes every other position look like a smart pick).

Whether you liked the Mesoraco pick at the time or not, you've defended him vigorously as a prospect.

[bubbachunk]

Drafting for a specific need is absolutely stupid when you consider most of these guys are 3+ years away from contributing. You take the best player available deemed by the people in your organization.

[New Fever]

Originally Posted by Benihana

When Chris Buckley and co. "like" a guy more than most that actually turns out to be a premium talent, let me know.

Zach Stewart was a third round pick last year and BA has said in recent podcasts that he is a lock for their Top 100.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

When some other team has the same kind of track record that you speak of, let me know. Everyone hits. Everyone misses.

What's the track record I speak of? Finding a premium guy once in 4 years? Finding a premium guy once after the first couple rounds?

I think I could find you a team or twenty that has done that.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Again, disagree. Only time will tell. I like Leake. I loved Green- especially for the SS-deficient Reds.

Care to tell me what makes Grant Green a better prospect than a guy like Zack Cozart? I certainly can't see it.

Whether you liked the Mesoraco pick at the time or not, you've defended him vigorously as a prospect.

Sure I have, because he has good tools and his peripherals look good. Why would I not defend him when someone(s) suggest he is a waste of space when there is evidence that suggests otherwise?

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by bubbachunk

Drafting for a specific need is absolutely stupid when you consider most of these guys are 3+ years away from contributing. You take the best player available deemed by the people in your organization.

Usually I agree. I just don't believe in the people in this organization.

Buckley seems to draft for need when it's wrong to (Stubbs in 2006, Mesoraco in 2007) and pass on the need when it was right (Beckham in 2008, Green in 2009). Regardless, I'll say again that I like Leake, so I'm not broken up over that one.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by New Fever

Zach Stewart was a third round pick last year and BA has said in recent podcasts that he is a lock for their Top 100.

Yep. He was probably the best pick of Buckley's Reds career.

Where's he now?

FWIW, let's see what happens with Stewart. I believe Toronto will use him in the 'pen. According to several people on this board (including dougdirt) drafting relievers in the top 3 rounds is worthless.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Yep. He was probably the best pick of Buckley's Reds career.

Where's he now?

FWIW, let's see what happens with Stewart. I believe Toronto will use him in the 'pen. According to several people on this board (including dougdirt) drafting relievers in the top 3 rounds is worthless.

Drafting a reliever in the top 3 rounds generally is a waste, but Stewart wasn't a reliever to the Reds. I do like the fact that we can wait to see what happens with Stewart, but not Boxberger or Hamilton or anyone else because we didn't take Stassi/Bailey/Oliver/Whoever else got overpaid for where they should have gone in the first place.

[Scrap Irony]

So, Beni, you're dogging Cincinnati (especially Reynolds and Buckley) because of a lack of premium talent in the organization?

I don't buy it.

Alonso, according to the experts, is a top 15 prospect in the game. Good pick.
Frazier looks like a starter at a middle infield position and an offensive plus as a sandwich 1st rounder. Good pick.
Sulburan, Lotzkar, and Hillenbrandt all exhibited TOR stuff before injuries and all were late round-ish picks. Good picks, all.
Yorman Rodriguez signed for serious bank out of Latin America and is hitting very well in Billings as a 17-year-old, the very definition of premium talent.
Wood, another sandwich pick, has performed as well as any pitcher in the minor leagues this season.

I think the problem here is one of perception. No team in baseball has a farm system so plentiful that it has four or five mlb-ready premium talents year after year. That happens only once or twice a decade in all of baseball.