I was wrong about....

[redsmetz]

Originally Posted by Benihana

No. Dave Williams. The guy they got for Sean Casey. I think he single-handedly sealed the fate of DanO.

As bad of a GM as Bowden was, DanO was worse. They had some good drafts under him, but man he was BAD.

I knew Casey's stock had fallen considerably, but when the guy you're traded for is shocked that it was a straight up deal, you know it's a terribly poor transaction. It still dismays me.

[Sea Ray]

Originally Posted by Benihana

No. Dave Williams. The guy they got for Sean Casey. I think he single-handedly sealed the fate of DanO.

As bad of a GM as Bowden was, DanO was worse. They had some good drafts under him, but man he was BAD.

Because of those drafts, DanO was much better than Bowden. I'd argue the current Reds wouldn't be where they are today without those drafts

[Homer Bailey]

I never, ever thought Votto would be a Red past 2013. I was wrong.

[RichRed]

I was ready to cut bait with Ludwick a couple months ago. Thought he looked hopeless at the plate.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by RichRed

I was ready to cut bait with Ludwick a couple months ago. Thought he looked hopeless at the plate.

You're not alone. *grin*

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by Sea Ray

Because of those drafts, DanO was much better than Bowden. I'd argue the current Reds wouldn't be where they are today without those drafts

I don't know- depends how much credit you give to the GM for first round draft picks.

The 2004 draft really only produced Homer Bailey, who was the consensus best HS pitcher in the draft. Taking him at #7 overall isn't exactly a world-beating move. Paul Janish was a nice fringy player they picked up in the 5th round. Other than that, BJ Szymanski was a joke of a 2nd round pick, and other than Craig Tatum for a cup of coffee, no one else even scratched the bigs (I'm not even sure if any of them scratched AAA!)

The 2005 draft produced Jay Bruce, Travis Wood, and Logan Ondrusek. I give the organization a lot of credit for selecting Bruce, especially when some other "experts" were touting other players. This draft is arguably the only good thing DanO ever did in the organization.

At least Bowden had *some* success at the big league level (ie 1995 and 1999) and made some acquisitions that worked out reasonably well (ie Brantley, Shaw, Graves, Dmitri, Casey, Konerko, Cameron, Vaughn, Neagle, Guillen). Of course, other than a Canadian catcher, his drafting was atrocious.

[Sea Ray]

Originally Posted by Benihana

I don't know- depends how much credit you give to the GM for first round draft picks.

The 2004 draft really only produced Homer Bailey, who was the consensus best HS pitcher in the draft. Taking him at #7 overall isn't exactly a world-beating move. Paul Janish was a nice fringy player they picked up in the 5th round. Other than that, BJ Szymanski was a joke of a 2nd round pick, and other than Craig Tatum for a cup of coffee, no one else even scratched the bigs (I'm not even sure if any of them scratched AAA!)

The 2005 draft produced Jay Bruce, Travis Wood, and Logan Ondrusek. I give the organization a lot of credit for selecting Bruce, especially when some other "experts" were touting other players. This draft is arguably the only good thing DanO ever did in the organization.

At least Bowden had *some* success at the big league level (ie 1995 and 1999) and made some acquisitions that worked out reasonably well (ie Brantley, Shaw, Graves, Dmitri, Casey, Konerko, Cameron, Vaughn, Neagle, Guillen). Of course, other than a Canadian catcher, his drafting was atrocious.

What about Johnny Cueto or Mes? Did we get them on DanO's watch?

[membengal]

The Ryan Ludwick renaissance has been a stunner to me. Not in a million years did I think he still had one of these left in him. Given that I a sad pand that they didn't pursue Carlos Beltran in free agency, that Ludwick's OPS is now pretty much level with Beltran is a genuine delight and massive surprise to me.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by Sea Ray

What about Johnny Cueto or Mes? Did we get them on DanO's watch?

I believe Cueto did sign during O'Brien's reign, so there's that.

The 2006 Draft (which featured Mesoraco, Frazier, Lotzkar and Cozart) occurred under Krivsky's watch in June. O'Brien was fired in January.

[Benihana]

It's interesting that it always seems in the last 5-7 years the Reds sign one "washed up" veteran right before ST much to the chagrin of RZ. That player usually exceeds EVERYONE'S expectations.

Past examples include:

Ryan Ludwick
Miguel Cairo
Jonny Gomes
Rich Aurillia
Joe Randa
Jeff Conine

who else, I know there have been others...?

[Sea Ray]

Originally Posted by Benihana

I believe Cueto did sign during O'Brien's reign, so there's that.

The 2006 Draft (which featured Mesoraco, Frazier, Lotzkar and Cozart) occurred under Krivsky's watch in June. O'Brien was fired in January.

You make some good points. My feeling is Bowden had some real nice pieces to trade in order to acquire those guys. He traded the likes of Eric Davis and Paul O'Neill. He also gave away a future Hall of Famer in Trevor Hoffman

[redsmetz]

I spent some time today looking over the 2012 Bold Predictions thread, just wondering if anyone anticipated how this season has progressed. Interesting read, but I didn't want to pull it forward yet since the protocol the previous season was to revisit it towards the end of the season. Some things are almost prescient and some didn't anticipate injuries (Madson) and trades (Francisco & Janish). Fun read and I thought I'd mention it here for the "wrong" parts. BTW, no one nailed where we are yet, although one person noted we would move into 1st place on August 8th and remain there for good. Let's hope we don't relinquish it at all.

[Raisor]

I guess I was wrong in thinking most of you had an idea of what you were talking about

[Homer Bailey]

Originally Posted by redsmetz

I spent some time today looking over the 2012 Bold Predictions thread, just wondering if anyone anticipated how this season has progressed. Interesting read, but I didn't want to pull it forward yet since the protocol the previous season was to revisit it towards the end of the season. Some things are almost prescient and some didn't anticipate injuries (Madson) and trades (Francisco & Janish). Fun read and I thought I'd mention it here for the "wrong" parts. BTW, no one nailed where we are yet, although one person noted we would move into 1st place on August 8th and remain there for good. Let's hope we don't relinquish it at all.

I can't find that thread. Do you mind linking it metz? Thanks.

[wolfboy]

Originally Posted by Benihana

I don't know- depends how much credit you give to the GM for first round draft picks.

The 2004 draft really only produced Homer Bailey, who was the consensus best HS pitcher in the draft. Taking him at #7 overall isn't exactly a world-beating move. Paul Janish was a nice fringy player they picked up in the 5th round. Other than that, BJ Szymanski was a joke of a 2nd round pick, and other than Craig Tatum for a cup of coffee, no one else even scratched the bigs (I'm not even sure if any of them scratched AAA!)

The 2005 draft produced Jay Bruce, Travis Wood, and Logan Ondrusek. I give the organization a lot of credit for selecting Bruce, especially when some other "experts" were touting other players. This draft is arguably the only good thing DanO ever did in the organization.

At least Bowden had *some* success at the big league level (ie 1995 and 1999) and made some acquisitions that worked out reasonably well (ie Brantley, Shaw, Graves, Dmitri, Casey, Konerko, Cameron, Vaughn, Neagle, Guillen). Of course, other than a Canadian catcher, his drafting was atrocious.

One point I'd throw in the mix: bearing fruit from the farm system is not only drafting but also player development. I don't have hard evidence for this but I think player development took a drastic step forward after Bowden left. It was pointed out earlier in this thread that the Bowden regime failed to produce any starting pitcher of note except for maybe Tomko. Doesn't that fail to even meet the "broken clock is right two times a day" minimum criteria?