When Does "Small Ball" Type Plays Take Place?

[RedLegSuperStar]

I am watching the finish of yesterdays "titanic struggle" unfold in the 9th and this team has runners on 1st and 2nd and no outs with Gomes up. Clearly a situation to bunt the runners over especially being down by one run. Gomes I believe strikesout and then Darnell McDonald comes up. I'm sorry you have to bunt the runners over either with Gomes or a pinch hitter. Then you pinch hit for McDonald and put Balentine in to bat with runners at 2nd and 3rd. Bone head plays like this that continues to cost this team Wins. I'll hop off the soap box.

[nate]

I think Gomes lined out hard to left.

[Danny Serafini]

I was happy to see him not bunt. He's hitting .313/.382/.550/.932 against lefties this year. I'd rather have him take a hack and try to bring in a couple of runners than burn an out so an inferior hitter can try.

[RedLegSuperStar]

Originally Posted by nate

I think Gomes lined out hard to left.

I think youre right Nate. Point isn't just yesterdays game it is throughout the entire season. This team is playing above the potential we give them granted now but if they do the smaller things that generate a run here and a run there then they need to. This team has enough trouble scoring as it is.

[Highlifeman21]

Originally Posted by RedLegSuperStar

I think youre right Nate. Point isn't just yesterdays game it is throughout the entire season. This team is playing above the potential we give them granted now but if they do the smaller things that generate a run here and a run there then they need to. This team has enough trouble scoring as it is.

Why have a slugger bunt?

That's like asking a CEO to perform brain surgery.

[RedsManRick]

Just curious, what are the chances of scoring at least 1 run with runners on 1st and 2nd and no out compared to runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out?

I know that the overall run expectancies are roughly the same, but down 1 run, I can certainly understand the argument for playing to maximize the chances you tie the game.

However, when it comes to small ball, people often discount the value of the out they're giving away (as an opportunity to drive in the run) and overestimate the increased likelihood of scoring.

Given that the Reds already had a guy on 2B who could score on a single, I wouldn't want to take the bat out of the hands of a guy who could drive in both runners. Gomes ended up killing the ball; he just hit right at the LF.

[westofyou]

Play for the win on the road, the tie at home.

Play power at Coors, don't let gorillas bunt.

[Always Red]

The Reds did try to play small ball as soon as Gomes lined out hard (it was a rocket) to LF. They gave Gomes a chance to mash, and he did, but right at someone.

It was apparent to me and the group watching with me that McDonald was going to strike out on the offspeed stuff. So either Dusty sent them, or they decided on their own to double steal- Rolen gets thrown out at 2B, Phillips safe at 3B. Now there are 2 outs. For nothing- no gain of any kind. You still need to tie the game first, right?

Now McDonald has to hit the ball, and bunting is not an option. He flailed, Reds lose, and I was pulling my hair out. Whether or not Drew Stubbs is going to be any good or not doesn't make me pull my hair out, but this kind of stuff does.

I think small ball and overthinking killed the Reds rally in the 9th yesterday.

[durl]

I was fine with Gomes swinging.

What I didn't agree with was the double steal. I wonder if Dusty figured the catcher would attempt to throw out Phillips at 3rd and Rolen wouldn't have trouble advancing. Dusty gambled and the Rockies took advantage.

[OnBaseMachine]

I was fine with Gomes swinging away. That was clearly the right call, IMO. What I didn't like was the double steal. That decision potentially cost the Reds the game.

[dfs]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

I was fine with Gomes swinging away. That was clearly the right call, IMO. What I didn't like was the double steal. That decision potentially cost the Reds the game.

Morning paper put the credit for the steal onto Phillips. He had the green light and took it. Rolen followed on his own and Dusty gave the Rockies credit for a fine play.

While watching it, I was grousing about the play till I noticed that the ball nearly ended up in centerfield. Of course if that happens the score is tied and they have a runner at third with one out and it all looks brilliant. I calmed down a bit.

No way do you take the bat out of Gomes hand and have him or anybody else bunt. Giving away outs is bad.

[VR]

I had no problem with any of the plays in the 9th. The catcher's decision to throw to second was the game breaker....as 9 out of 10 times they throw to 3rd on that. If Phillips beat the throw, we'd be clamoring why Rolen was standing on 1st.

The ball obviously wasn't bouncing the Reds way yesterday, and it did a LOT during the 7 game streak. It happens.

I saw enough good things, like Homer's new found poise continuing on the mound, to not lose sleep over it.

[Chip R]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

I was fine with Gomes swinging away. That was clearly the right call, IMO. What I didn't like was the double steal. That decision potentially cost the Reds the game.

Yep. Phillips could have scored from 2nd on a single to tie it up.

[AtomicDumpling]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

Just curious, what are the chances of scoring at least 1 run with runners on 1st and 2nd and no out compared to runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out?

I know that the overall run expectancies are roughly the same, but down 1 run, I can certainly understand the argument for playing to maximize the chances you tie the game.

However, when it comes to small ball, people often discount the value of the out they're giving away (as an opportunity to drive in the run) and overestimate the increased likelihood of scoring.

Given that the Reds already had a guy on 2B who could score on a single, I wouldn't want to take the bat out of the hands of a guy who could drive in both runners. Gomes ended up killing the ball; he just hit right at the LF.

I agree. And they also overestimate the chances of executing the bunt play successfully. Lots of times you end up giving away the out without even advancing the runner.

I would not have one of my hottest hitters intentionally make an out -- especially when the tying run is already in scoring position.

[Chip R]

Originally Posted by dfs

Morning paper put the credit for the steal onto Phillips. He had the green light and took it. Rolen followed on his own and Dusty gave the Rockies credit for a fine play.

It's not Dusty's job to be as confused as Brandon. If Dusty gives the green light to his baserunners, he can give the red light to them too.