Drew Stubbs

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp

I think you can always read into stats to a certain degree. With every passing day, the sample gets larger and larger. It's like a Wheel of Fortune puzzle. You might not be able to solve it with the first few letters in a phrase, but with every letter you add, it starts to make a little more sense until eventually, there are enough letters turned over to solve it.

It might be way too premature to solve any puzzles from Stubbs' play. But every game adds a stab at yet another letter.

Great analogy Brutus. We have a little bit more information now than we did before he came up. It's promising that the additional "letters" fit in to the phrase we're hoping it turns out to be, but his 2009 major league numbers are just a few more letters.

Bottom line, Stubbs has shown enough from both a stats and scouting perspective to merit serious consideration as our starting CF in 2010. Short of injuring himself, nothing he does over the next 2 weeks will change that in either direction.

[jojo]

The proper statistical analogy using the wheel of fortune however would be that with sample sizes that are too small, one is trying to solve the puzzle without wearing their glasses so while letters are getting slowly added one can't tell T's from Y's or M's from N's etc.....

[Sea Ray]

Originally Posted by jojo

The proper statistical analogy using the wheel of fortune however would be that with sample sizes that are too small, one is trying to solve the puzzle without wearing their glasses so while letters are getting slowly added one can't tell T's from Y's or M's from N's etc.....

Nobody's saying the picture is clear Jojo. If it was obvious, this thread wouldn't be so long. It's called discussion. Nothing wrong with that

[jojo]

Originally Posted by Sea Ray

Nobody's saying the picture is clear Jojo. If it was obvious, this thread wouldn't be so long. It's called discussion. Nothing wrong with that

Again, you're missing my point.

[TheNext44]

Has anyone thought that Stubbs is hitting more home runs because he met a girl he really likes since being called up and just wants to impress her. After all, chicks do love the longball...

[The Baumer]

Originally Posted by TheNext44

Has anyone thought that Stubbs is hitting more home runs because he met a girl he really likes since being called up and just wants to impress her. After all, chicks do love the longball...

If you are going to cite puppy love as a factor you have to post some sabermetrics. A quick look at Fangraphs shows his SmITN ratio is a underwhelming -15 so although to the human eye it may look like he is blowing kisses to the stands, the numbers suggest that everything in Stubb's control (the kiss sound with the mouth, the hand waving the kiss to its target) is below average if not bottom 5 in the league.

Here is a jumbled spreadsheet of numbers:

AB KISSES LOVE BUTTERFLY EYES BUTTERFLIES IN STOMACH DAYDREAMS
21238213 23 213 2 31 23 . 3 3. 3.232 323

[dougdirt]

323 daydreams?! Man oh man, someone needs to help this boy out.

[Highlifeman21]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

nah, that's not really how it works. it's the manager's job to put the player in the best possible position to succeed. ESPECIALLY when the player is a rookie and really has little to no influence.

Oh I completely agree that The Dusty should put all of his players in a position to succeed, but right now we don't know the answer of "What kind of offensive production does Drew Stubbs bring to the table?"

Currently, he shouldn't bat leadoff given the breakdown of his numbers. Personally, I'd bat him probably 5th or 6th with the SLG he's displaying combined with the low SLG.

However, The Dusty chooses to bat him leadoff, so either he needs to figure out ways to increase his OBP and justify The Dusty's choice in batting order, or The Dusty needs to realize that Stubbs isn't showing to be a leadoff hitter as a MLB hitter.

[Highlifeman21]

Originally Posted by Sea Ray

OK, fair enough. Who do you bat leadoff then? Janish? Bruce? Rolen? Who?

Dickerson.

[Highlifeman21]

Originally Posted by TheNext44

Has anyone thought that Stubbs is hitting more home runs because he met a girl he really likes since being called up and just wants to impress her. After all, chicks do love the longball...

The Dusty's daughter?

[Degenerate39]

Originally Posted by Highlifeman21

The Dusty's daughter?

Then Tavares wouldn't be playing.

[Sea Ray]

Originally Posted by Highlifeman21

Dickerson.

Hey I would love it if Dickerson could secure the fulltime LF job. I'd really like to see a lineup starting with Dickerson, Stubbs and Votto. But there are issues here. First one is Dickerson is useless vs LHPs. Secondly and more importantly is he can't seem to stay healthy. So yes, if he can improve a little on those things and nail down a fulltime job then great, I'm all for it. But times like now when Dickerson's not available I think Stubbs is the best bet for leadoff.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by jojo

To me the question is this-given Stubbs can't get enough PAs this season to allow us to make any meaningful statistical conclusions about the aspects of his game that are points of contention, shouldn't we quit trying to draw statistical inferences about them?

This.

Originally Posted by dougdirt

While his REDS PA this season isn't enough, it does add more data to the overall Drew Stubbs data that we have.

No, more like it's noise. The problem with projecting Stubbs is 2008. He didn't spend any significant time at any level, except High A, where as was stated, he was owned. How can you actually sit there and say he has this ability to make adjustments when 2009 was the first time in over a year pitchers and coaches had a significant book on him? Right now, the only MLB team that might have one is the Pirates.

BTW, nice massaging of numbers regarding 2008. July was too small a sample, so you include it as June in a month by month tracking of his OBP. I also noticed you completely left out his abysmal AFL.

I'm really trying to get out of the Stubbs conversation now, as it has been ongoing since 2007. Here is what I have noticed. Everyone on both side wants him to succeed. The anti-Stubbs group, of which I am a charter member mostly wanted the guy to do a level a year. When selected, he was considered "raw", so why rush him, as was done in 2008? Draft slot. Never would have happened if he had been a 5th round pick. We want more data. Some acknowledge his ceiling, while pointing out his floor is very low.

The Pro-Stubbs camp, and you know who you are, almost never mention his floor, never mention he was rushed, never mention his .500+ OPS during the month he was promoted to the Reds. Nope. We get LD% as a baseline of him to keep doing what he is doing. Even though that contradicts the notion he's hadt to KEPP reworking his swing. Is it the third different swing now? So let's throw LD% out the door, because certainly in this context it is meaningless.

2010 will tell the tale, and though I am not optimistic, I am hopeful. Hell I threatened to become a Cubs fan if the Reds signed Willy Taveras, and I'd take Drew Stubbs in a heartbeat over Taveras, if only for his potential. See, I have never once doubted the physical tools, just the mental ones.

[Raisor]

Originally Posted by Sea Ray

Hey I would love it if Dickerson could secure the fulltime LF job. .

The problem with Dickerson playing LF is that he'll never hit enough to play there fulltime.

It's another reason the WT signing was so bad.

Until he's actually off the team, there's too much of a chance of WT playing.

[GAC]

Originally Posted by Raisor

It's another reason the WT signing was so bad.

Until he's actually off the team, there's too much of a chance of WT playing.

Dusty's a redeemer.

Personally - I see him more as a wrecking ball. :