Drew Stubbs

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by TRF

So his 3 HR's at AAA are the fluke?

really?

Nowhere in that post did I say that, I showed data from 2007-2008 showing that he could have easily added several HR's had he played in more friendly confines than he did.

But right now Drew Stubbs has 11 HR on the year (3 in AAA, 1 in the AAA AS Game and 7 with the Reds) along with 27 doubles and 3 triples. That is some pretty solid pop. You can keep beating the 'fluke' drum all you want, but its not adding up other than bitterness toward someone you don't like.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Nowhere in that post did I say that, I showed data from 2007-2008 showing that he could have easily added several HR's had he played in more friendly confines than he did.

But right now Drew Stubbs has 11 HR on the year (3 in AAA, 1 in the AAA AS Game and 7 with the Reds) along with 27 doubles and 3 triples. That is some pretty solid pop. You can keep beating the 'fluke' drum all you want, but its not adding up other than bitterness toward someone you don't like.

And you can keep pointing out HR's didn't would be HR's elsewhere, like thaqt doesn't happen EVERY DAY in MLB. And it doesn't add up to anything other than you have been championing a guy that has a sub par bat at every level he's played at while being rushed through the system.

on this we'll never agree.

[dougdirt]

Drew Stubbs Isolated Power by year:
2006 - .148
2007 - .151
2008 - .140
2009 - .117 (.092 in AAA, .195 in MLB)

So yeah TRF, I do think that his power drop off in AAA was a bit of a fluke. Its out of whack with what he has showed every other year in his career.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by TRF

And you can keep pointing out HR's didn't would be HR's elsewhere, like thaqt doesn't happen EVERY DAY in MLB. And it doesn't add up to anything other than you have been championing a guy that has a sub par bat at every level he's played at while being rushed through the system.

on this we'll never agree.

I am simply pointing out that there was a reason to believe that his power could have been even more in 2007/2008 than it actually was. You know, something that perhaps could back up the scouting reports we all heard about. As for a guy that has been a sub par bat.... stop. Players values are more than at the plate.... and even if they weren't, Stubbs line everywhere he has been except for AAA in 2009, has been 'league average' compared to a major league center fielder.

You are right that we will never agree on it though. Your problems with Stubbs are admittedly beyond simply his game.

[Highlifeman21]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I am simply pointing out that there was a reason to believe that his power could have been even more in 2007/2008 than it actually was. You know, something that perhaps could back up the scouting reports we all heard about. As for a guy that has been a sub par bat.... stop. Players values are more than at the plate.... and even if they weren't, Stubbs line everywhere he has been except for AAA in 2009, has been 'league average' compared to a major league center fielder.

You are right that we will never agree on it though. Your problems with Stubbs are admittedly beyond simply his game.

Pretty sad when the Reds and their fans should get excited about a league average MLB CF.

I'm wondering when Stubbs' OBP is going to improve from the Hairston/McDonald/Janish/Nix/Rosales level it currently resides.

It needs to approach and hopefully surpass the Hanigan/Balentien/Dickerson level for Stubbs to provide any offensive value to this club.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by Highlifeman21

Pretty sad when the Reds and their fans should get excited about a league average MLB CF.

I'm wondering when Stubbs' OBP is going to improve from the Hairston/McDonald/Janish/Nix/Rosales level it currently resides.

It needs to approach and hopefully surpass the Hanigan/Balentien/Dickerson level for Stubbs to provide any offensive value to this club.

Factoring in defense and the fact the kid is a rookie, he's already above league average right now. When you consider his potential, and the runs he will save defensively, I'd say the excitement comes from the fact he has the ability to be a future 800 OPS guy with several gold gloves. For CF, if that doesn't excite you, perhaps you're setting your own bar too high.

[Highlifeman21]

Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp

Factoring in defense and the fact the kid is a rookie, he's already above league average right now. When you consider his potential, and the runs he will save defensively, I'd say the excitement comes from the fact he has the ability to be a future 800 OPS guy with several gold gloves. For CF, if that doesn't excite you, perhaps you're setting your own bar too high.

I guess my bar includes providing offensive value to the team, rather than focusing solely on unquantifiable defensive value.

The kid's a stud defender, no doubt, but IMO it's not setting a high bar to want the kid to have any sort of bat to go with that glove.

7 homers but next to no 2B, low AVG, low OBP, and a crappy K:BB ratio = no bat in my book.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by Highlifeman21

I guess my bar includes providing offensive value to the team, rather than focusing solely on unquantifiable defensive value.

The kid's a stud defender, no doubt, but IMO it's not setting a high bar to want the kid to have any sort of bat to go with that glove.

7 homers but next to no 2B, low AVG, low OBP, and a crappy K:BB ratio = no bat in my book.

But the point is, his current OPS is already better than half the MLB starting centerfielders. So even if we assume he won't maintain this slugging, but replaces it with half the OBP, it still winds up the same OPS. So even ignoring defense more a moment, as a rookie, he's currently average. But that assumes no improvement or potential.

Throw that in, and that's why people are excited.

Even to take the attitude that defense is unquantifiable, it's almost as if you're dismissing it completely because you think it can't be quantified. That's a silly notion, because regardless of how much we know about it, you'd at least have to admit Stubbs' defense probably makes up a decent amount of offensive production right off the top. It seems to me that you're completely dismissing defensive value just based on your belief UZR is a bogus stat.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Highlifeman21

Pretty sad when the Reds and their fans should get excited about a league average MLB CF.

Except thats not what he is. He is a league average hitter with well above average defense. That makes him an above average guy.

I'm wondering when Stubbs' OBP is going to improve from the Hairston/McDonald/Janish/Nix/Rosales level it currently resides.

It needs to approach and hopefully surpass the Hanigan/Balentien/Dickerson level for Stubbs to provide any offensive value to this club.

Not true at all. Stubbs could help this team offensively with a .330 OBP. Sure, you would like it higher, but its all about comparing him to the other teams guy at the same spot and those guys are generally a .330 OBP guy.

[Highlifeman21]

Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp

But the point is, his current OPS is already better than half the MLB starting centerfielders. So even if we assume he won't maintain this slugging, but replaces it with half the OBP, it still winds up the same OPS. So even ignoring defense more a moment, as a rookie, he's currently average. But that assumes no improvement or potential.

Throw that in, and that's why people are excited.

Even to take the attitude that defense is unquantifiable, it's almost as if you're dismissing it completely because you think it can't be quantified. That's a silly notion, because regardless of how much we know about it, you'd at least have to admit Stubbs' defense probably makes up a decent amount of offensive production right off the top. It seems to me that you're completely dismissing defensive value just based on your belief UZR is a bogus stat.

Stubbs is like Paul Janish-lite. Janish will never have enough D to make up for his lack of bat. Right now, Stubbs' D is probably just enough to make up for his lack of bat.

Unfortunately (and this isn't hijacking, just stating an opinion) we can't rely on either offensive or defensive metrics to be able to accurately compare/contrast offensive run production vs defensive run value.

I don't know how many times I need to type that I think Stubbs is an elite defender before anyone actually believes me. Unfortunately we just can't accurately assign a run value to his elite defense, so I just leave it at "Stubbs is an elite defender".

What I can say, with ridiculously high confidence mind you, is that Drew Stubbs isn't doing anything offensively related to get excited about.

Get excited about his D, b/c it's that damn good, but just accept that Drew Stubbs isn't giving us anything offensively until he improves his OBP. Hell, that's why I voted that I only care about his OBP in the poll. Right now his SLG is a mirage, and it'll become very clear that we don't see an oasis, and that we're still stuck in the desert. As soon as he gets that OBP back up to the .350-.375 range (or higher, let's get optimistic, no?) then Stubbs will finally be something valuable to the Reds.

Right now, he's just not Taveras.

[Highlifeman21]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Except thats not what he is. He is a league average hitter with well above average defense. That makes him an above average guy.


Not true at all. Stubbs could help this team offensively with a .330 OBP. Sure, you would like it higher, but its all about comparing him to the other teams guy at the same spot and those guys are generally a .330 OBP guy.

Pretty sure Drew Stubbs will end with an OPS closer to .700 than .750. That SLG will go down, and rational people will easily recognize that.

Stubbs doesn't help this team as a leadoff hitter with a .330 OBP.

Bat him 7th or 8th, and sure, .330 is gravy.

Bat him leadoff and .330 doesn't cut it.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Except thats not what he is. He is a league average hitter with well above average defense. That makes him an above average guy.

Stubbs has actually been a below league average bat thus far as a Red (his wOBA is only .320).

The real question is what is his true skill offensively (because thats what one should expect going forward). I'm skeptical that he'll be a league average bat over 600 PAs next season.

But I do think he'll be a plus defender and his bat could be good enough that when added to the value of his glove, he'd be league average overall.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by Highlifeman21

Stubbs is like Paul Janish-lite. Janish will never have enough D to make up for his lack of bat. Right now, Stubbs' D is probably just enough to make up for his lack of bat.

Unfortunately (and this isn't hijacking, just stating an opinion) we can't rely on either offensive or defensive metrics to be able to accurately compare/contrast offensive run production vs defensive run value.

I don't know how many times I need to type that I think Stubbs is an elite defender before anyone actually believes me. Unfortunately we just can't accurately assign a run value to his elite defense, so I just leave it at "Stubbs is an elite defender".

What I can say, with ridiculously high confidence mind you, is that Drew Stubbs isn't doing anything offensively related to get excited about.

Get excited about his D, b/c it's that damn good, but just accept that Drew Stubbs isn't giving us anything offensively until he improves his OBP. Hell, that's why I voted that I only care about his OBP in the poll. Right now his SLG is a mirage, and it'll become very clear that we don't see an oasis, and that we're still stuck in the desert. As soon as he gets that OBP back up to the .350-.375 range (or higher, let's get optimistic, no?) then Stubbs will finally be something valuable to the Reds.

Right now, he's just not Taveras.

And this is why I say you've probably set the bar too high.

Scouts say Stubbs has this power. They've been saying it since the day he was drafted. His physical characteristics are textbook for projected power. He's already shown the ability to get on base, but people wondered when the homers might follow. We're now seeing it, but because (at 24 years old mind you), he's not yet done this consistently, therefore its a mirage. Guys don't reach physical maturity until they are 27. I don't know how many times that has to be said for it to sink in.

But now you have a speedy player that has shown the ability to get on base. And he's finally starting to hit for power (something scouts have said he could hit 20-25 a year before it's all said and done), and this doesn't excite someone as a CF? Frankly, not many centerfielders have that kind of ceiling. To get one that does, even if he does not fulfill all that power potential, is pretty good.

For Stubbs to hit just 15 homers in a full season, he'd have to hit around 2.5% of his PA's for home runs. That's not even a full point above his minor league rate. Since it's very common for guys to improve by a full percentage point (or more), this power is not at all irrational. He won't hit 35 homers by any means (which is close to what he's on pace for), but 20 is not at all out of reach.

For a centerfielder with gold glove defense, 15-20 homers and a .350+ on-base percentage sure excites me. Relative to a normal starter at that position, those numbers would put him in the elite at his position, or near it.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Highlifeman21

Pretty sure Drew Stubbs will end with an OPS closer to .700 than .750. That SLG will go down, and rational people will easily recognize that.

Stubbs doesn't help this team as a leadoff hitter with a .330 OBP.

Bat him 7th or 8th, and sure, .330 is gravy.

Bat him leadoff and .330 doesn't cut it.

Drew Stubbs with a .700 OPS is still an every day starter on most teams because his defense is that good. We can disagree on what we think his OPS will be, but even if I accept your closer to .700 OPS its still good enough to have him start and help this team. His Isolated Power will go down. Of course I expect his average to go up which will keep his SLG a little higher because of the higher floor (AVG) to go with the lower IsoP. Rational people will also recognize that his IsoD is likely to go up as well, making up for some of that loss of SLG.

As for where he bats, that doesn't change his value to the team. Its not his fault that his manager bats him X spot in the line up. Either a .330 OBP is gravy or its not. Outside of that, its on the manager, not the player.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by jojo

The real question is what is his true skill offensively (because thats what one should expect going forward). I'm skeptical that he'll be a league average bat over 600 PAs next season.

But I do think he'll be a plus defender and his bat could be good enough that when added to the value of his glove, he'd be league average overall.

I think he will be a league average bat next year, maybe slightly better. .260/.350/.425 is what I think he brings to the table next year.