Who is Redszone's #2 prospect?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

This question is for you and the others who like to compare him with DeRosa. Why DeRosa? Can you give us a good argument as to what you are basing that comparison on? I'd be really interested in why people feel he's more like DeRosa, when everything points to him being much better than him. Until someone provides me with a reasonable argument Mike Lowell is a more fair comparison IMO.

I agree. Derosa never hit 9 HR in a single minor league season. Never had 30 doubles in a single minor league season. Never slugged .400 in a single minor league season until he was 26 and in AAA where he only had 186 at bats. Plate discipline wise, I see the comp. Power wise, it simply doesn't make sense.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

This question is for you and the others who like to compare him with DeRosa. Why DeRosa? Can you give us a good argument as to what you are basing that comparison on? I'd be really interested in why people feel he's more like DeRosa, when everything points to him being much better than him. Until someone provides me with a reasonable argument Mike Lowell is a more fair comparison IMO.

In the high minors Lowell had a a split season between AA and AAA where he had an OPS of 1.000 at AA and .909 at AAA with slugging percentages over .560 in both spots and a combined 30 HR. He followed that up with a .304/.355/.535/.890 with 26 HR at AAA. Frazier's combined AA and AAA year saw him put up OPS numbers of .831 and .838 with slugging percentages of .481 and .476. Talk about looking at a Chevy and seeing a Cadillac simply because they were both made by GM. Frazier's years at Dayton and Rookie ball are ancient history. He hasn't been a .500+ slugger since then.

Its true that Frazier far exceeds what Derosa did in the minors, but he projects to become a major leaguer on about par with what Derosa has done in the last 4 years (.780 to .820 or so OPS) in the majors including the multi-positional skillset which makes him very valuable as opposed to ho-hum. I can see the DeRosa comp easily, but I sure don't see Lowell. A monster season at 3B in 2010 at AAA could change all of that, but he hasn't had that season yet and he hasn't ever played 3B on a daily basis.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by mth123

In the high minors Lowell had a a split season between AA and AAA where he had an OPS of 1.000 at AA and .909 at AAA with slugging percentages over .560 in both spots and a combined 30 HR. He followed that up with a .304/.355/.535/.890 with 26 HR at AAA. Frazier's combined AA and AAA year saw him put up OPS numbers of .831 and .838 with slugging percentages of .481 and .476. Talk about looking at a Chevy and seeing a Cadillac simply because they were both made by GM. Frazier's years at Dayton and Rookie ball are ancient history. He hasn't been a .500+ slugger since then.

Its true that Frazier far exceeds what Derosa did in the minors, but he projects to become a major leaguer on about par with what Derosa has done in the last 4 years (.780 to .820 or so OPS) in the majors including the multi-positional skillset which makes him very valuable as opposed to ho-hum. I can see the DeRosa comp easily, but I sure don't see Lowell. A monster season at 3B in 2010 at AAA could change all of that, but he hasn't had that season yet and he hasn't ever played 3B on a daily basis.

So let me get this right. Fraziers .481 Slg isn't closer to the one year Lowell outdone him in the minors of .562 than Derosas age 23 season Slg% of .384? Yeah I know that's not exactly what you stated but here's the thing. Career minor league #'s suggest Frazier is in the same stratosphere as Lowell if not better in all areas including Slg. of which Frazier actually has an advantage. Because Lowell had a great season that year shouldn't necc. suggest that he is indeed superior. What Frazier projects to at this point is more Mike Lowell (career .810 OPS) and less DeRosa (career .767 OPS). In fact if his numbers give a real indication he could be closer to .850 than .800.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

So let me get this right. Fraziers .481 Slg isn't closer to the one year Lowell outdone him in the minors of .562 than Derosas age 23 season Slg% of .384? Yeah I know that's not exactly what you stated but here's the thing. Career minor league #'s suggest Frazier is in the same stratosphere as Lowell if not better in all areas including Slg. of which Frazier actually has an advantage. Because Lowell had a great season that year shouldn't necc. suggest that he is indeed superior. What Frazier projects to at this point is more Mike Lowell (career .810 OPS) and less DeRosa (career .767 OPS). In fact if his numbers give a real indication he could be closer to .850 than .800.

Actually, Lowell had .560+ in one year split between AA and AAA and a full season at AAA at .535. That is a significantly higher slugging % for the entire time in the high minors than what Frazier has done. Looking at Frazier's entire minor league numbers is kind of misguided. His time in Billings get zero weight IMO and he may be better sluggingwise than what he showed in Sarasota. AA and AAA are what counts when that info is available. It would be different if he was way young for the league, but he really isn't. Lowell's split AA and AAA year was at exactly the same age as Frazier's was.

As far as Derosa goes, his minor league numbers are meaningless. Frazier's reasonable projections (even Doug projects an .810 OPS in an earlier post today) are right in the range of what DeRosa has done for the last 4 years in the big leagues. I don't think anybody cares about comping some one's minor league numbers. They are comping what they think he'll do as a major leaguer. DeRosa's last 4 years are a very good comp, I'd agree that he'll be better than DeRosa on a career basis because he probably won't have the horrid seasons that DeRosa put up in 2003 and 2004.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by mth123

Actually, Lowell had .560+ in one year split between AA and AAA and a full season at AAA at .535. That is a significantly higher slugging % for the entire time in the high minors than what Frazier has done. Looking at Frazier's entire minor league numbers is kind of misguided. His time in Billings get zero weight IMO and he may be better sluggingwise than what he showed in Sarasota. AA and AAA are what counts when that info is available. It would be different if he was way young for the league, but he really isn't. Lowell's split AA and AAA year was at exactly the same age as Frazier's was.

As far as Derosa goes, his minor league numbers are meaningless. Frazier's reasonable projections (even Doug projects an .810 OPS in an earlier post today) are right in the range of what DeRosa has done for the last 4 years in the big leagues. I don't think anybody cares about comping some one's minor league numbers. They are comping what they think he'll do as a major leaguer. DeRosa's last 4 years are a very good comp, I'd agree that he'll be better than DeRosa on a career basis because he probably won't have the horrid seasons that DeRosa put up in 2003 and 2004.

Well still Lowell has had a career .810 OPS and DeRosa a .767. I think Lowell is a better comp period. We can cherry pick all day long, but when it comes down to it Frazier should be a .800+ OPS bat (and IMO .830 to .850) and at 3rd base that would make him fairly valuable.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by mth123

As far as Derosa goes, his minor league numbers are meaningless. Frazier's reasonable projections (even Doug projects an .810 OPS in an earlier post today) are right in the range of what DeRosa has done for the last 4 years in the big leagues. I don't think anybody cares about comping some one's minor league numbers. They are comping what they think he'll do as a major leaguer. DeRosa's last 4 years are a very good comp, I'd agree that he'll be better than DeRosa on a career basis because he probably won't have the horrid seasons that DeRosa put up in 2003 and 2004.

No, that was me being a bit reasonable on the power which even in the post I said I would have him with a little more pop. I have him in the .825-.850 range. I went low on some things to compensate for others beliefs.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

Well still Lowell has had a career .810 OPS and DeRosa a .767. I think Lowell is a better comp period. We can cherry pick all day long, but when it comes down to it Frazier should be a .800+ OPS bat (and IMO .830 to .850) and at 3rd base that would make him fairly valuable.

OK. But IMO DeRosa is a better comp for the following reasons:

1. Lowell has been a rock solid 3B his entire career in the majors and minors and Frazier has hardly played there.
2. Both DeRosa and Frazier are multi-position guys.
3. While the career OPS may sound similar I can't see Frazier having a stretch of years in the .870 to .880 range like Lowell did in 2003, 2004 and 2007. I could see Frazier comping with Lowell's 1999 through 2002 seasons but only because Lowell was hitting in an extreme pitchers park in Fla while Frazier will have GABP going for him. Of course Frazier still needs to show he can play 3B before a Lowell comp is appropriate.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by mth123

OK. But IMO DeRosa is a better comp for the following reasons:

1. Lowell has been a rock solid 3B his entire career in the majors and minors and Frazier has hardly played there.
2. Both DeRosa and Frazier are multi-position guys.
3. While the career OPS may sound similar I can't see Frazier having a stretch of years in the .870 to .880 range like Lowell did in 2003, 2004 and 2007. I could see Frazier comping with Lowell's 1999 through 2002 seasons but only because Lowell was hitting in an extreme pitchers park in Fla while Frazier will have GABP going for him. Of course Frazier still needs to show he can play 3B before a Lowell comp is appropriate.

The fact that Frazier hasn't played there shouldn't mean anything when the guys in charge say that Frazier CAN play there. The comp to DeRosa because he is a multi position guy doesn't work simply because they both play a lot of positions. While I agree that Frazier needs to show he can play 3B like Lowell could, at the top end of the spectrum, Frazier can play 3B.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

The fact that Frazier hasn't played there shouldn't mean anything when the guys in charge say that Frazier CAN play there. The comp to DeRosa because he is a multi position guy doesn't work simply because they both play a lot of positions. While I agree that Frazier needs to show he can play 3B like Lowell could, at the top end of the spectrum, Frazier can play 3B.

Sorry, Doug, I know you keep saying it -- but I can't recall any endorsement by the Reds of Frazier as a third baseman. I'm sure you're right, but I don't recall it.

Most true third basemen aren't shuffled around every position on the diamond in the upper minors. The handling of Frazier doesn't indicate a lot of confidence in him at the hot corner.

Here's my uneducated take on Frazier, who I have as the Reds third best prospect:

The Reds weren't thrilled with his infield play and tried him in left field. They concluded that he was just a regular guy offensively as an outfielder. They'd like him to be an infielder where his bat would be well above average. They are trying to find the right position for him, but haven't yet succeeded. The latest attempt is second base.

I'd like to hear from GOYA on Frazier. He's seen him play a bunch.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Kc61

Sorry, Doug, I know you keep saying it -- but I can't recall any endorsement by the Reds of Frazier as a third baseman. I'm sure you're right, but I don't recall it.

Most true third basemen aren't shuffled around every position on the diamond in the upper minors. The handling of Frazier doesn't indicate a lot of confidence in him at the hot corner.

Or it was them getting time for a terrible defender with the skills to get better over there in Juan Francisco who has been on the same team as Frazier each of the last two years? And yes, Terry Reynolds did say that they know Frazier can play 3B and its why he plays elsewhere.

Here's my uneducated take on Frazier, who I have as the Reds third best prospect:

The Reds weren't thrilled with his infield play and tried him in left field. They concluded that he was just a regular guy offensively as an outfielder. They'd like him to be an infielder where his bat would be well above average. They are trying to find the right position for him, but haven't yet succeeded. The latest attempt is second base.

I'd like to hear from GOYA on Frazier. He's seen him play a bunch.

GOYA hasn't seen Frazier play 3B because he only saw him in Louisville, where he played 2B and LF for 2 or 3 games. Frazier isn't ready to play 2B right now. I think you are simply overthinking this one here. Where Todd ultimately plays may not be at 3B, but it won't be because he can't play there, it will be because of Scott Rolen or maybe Juan Francisco's inability to play somewhere else (or maybe Todd figures out 2B).

[mth123]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

The fact that Frazier hasn't played there shouldn't mean anything when the guys in charge say that Frazier CAN play there. The comp to DeRosa because he is a multi position guy doesn't work simply because they both play a lot of positions. While I agree that Frazier needs to show he can play 3B like Lowell could, at the top end of the spectrum, Frazier can play 3B.

Saying he can play 3B could mean a lot of things. I think its the most optimistic assumption yet to think it means he can play there every day.

It could mean that it is one position in his arsenal like 2B, SS, 1B and LF and it means he's a real valuable guy who makes the team deep because we have a better than league average caliber bat that we can move around to keep everyone fresh and rested.

Some once said that EdE can play 3B. They said Tony Perez can play 3B. Dan Driessen was supposed to be able to play 3B. They traded Ray Knight because they thought that Johnny Bench could play 3B. Ryan Freel was a valuable guy because he could play 3B. Heck Last year Dusty Baker said that Javy Valentin can play 3B. None was adequate on a day in and day out basis. I'm pretty sure he can spot there, but I think a lot of people are reading a meaning into that statement because its what they want it to mean. I'd like to see him out there for an extended period before chalking it up.

He's still a good prospect. This is really about which uncertainty you prefer. I think Leake is more valuable because of his pedigree. It's not all due to Frazier's performance, but the Reds moving him around has sent a signal that he's a tweener and its hurt his value IMO.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Where Todd ultimately plays may not be at 3B, but it won't be because he can't play there, it will be because of Scott Rolen or maybe Juan Francisco's inability to play somewhere else (or maybe Todd figures out 2B).

Just seems rather odd to me - if the Reds envision Frazier as a potential third baseman, you'd think they would play him there once in awhile. Usually when a team has a young third baseman, he plays some third base and fairly often. Unless he's mastered the position to the point that it's unnecessary for him to actually play there anymore in the minors.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Kc61

Here's my uneducated take on Frazier, who I have as the Reds third best prospect:

The Reds weren't thrilled with his infield play and tried him in left field. They concluded that he was just a regular guy offensively as an outfielder. They'd like him to be an infielder where his bat would be well above average. They are trying to find the right position for him, but haven't yet succeeded. The latest attempt is second base.

That's my take too. You summed it up very well.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Kc61

Just seems rather odd to me - if the Reds envision Frazier as a potential third baseman, you'd think they would play him there once in awhile. Usually when a team has a young third baseman, he plays some third base and fairly often. Unless he's mastered the position to the point that it's unnecessary for him to actually play there anymore in the minors.

Well the thing is, one guy is viewed as being able to play it today. While the other guy (Francisco), is viewed as needing a lot of work there still, but is also full of potential. If Todd weren't playing 3B because of a guy like Brandon Waring, it would be one thing. But Todd hasn't played there because a guy with a 70 arm and 75 raw power also plays 3B and has been at the same level as him each of the last two years.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Well the thing is, one guy is viewed as being able to play it today. While the other guy (Francisco), is viewed as needing a lot of work there still, but is also full of potential. If Todd weren't playing 3B because of a guy like Brandon Waring, it would be one thing. But Todd hasn't played there because a guy with a 70 arm and 75 raw power also plays 3B and has been at the same level as him each of the last two years.

Well, usually they find a way to give the other guy (Frazier) some reps at third too. The entire Frazier defensive position thing has been odd.

In any event, if JF moves to left field next year, it will be interesting to see where Frazier plays. Whether he'll play second or he'll play third. With the way things have gone for him, could see Frazier behind the plate for all we know.