Who is Redszone's #3 prospect?

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp

I think everyone has him in their top 5. Doug has stated he does. I know I do. I don't think anyone even disagrees on that.

I'm not sure I do but I'm also not so sure I don't at this point. But I tend to value highly skilled players over highly talented ones. If we are just talking ceiling well absolutely he is in my top 5 but a prospects floor also has to be taken into consideration. Last year I think he was 15-20 range for me this year definitely top 10.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by TRF

OK, I'm confused on something. It seems to be a given that he's probably not going to have a problem hitting at least .275. I agree with you on the walks, but I see them inching up over time. I don't think cutting down on the K's instantly translates into more hits. Some, sure, but not K'ing doesn't equal hit. If he reduces his K's by 10 percent it doesn't mean a 10 percent increase in his BA, more like a 2-3% at best. So it isn't the number of K's but the ratio as you have suggested. Ok, I'm ok with that.

You have suggested he might be an .830 OPS hitter. I'm saying that is such a huge upgrade over what the Reds have run out there post Dunn that I'd be thrilled with it, especially from a young player like JF.

Well a 10% decrease in his K rate, assuming you meant 10% of his current rate, would take him to 18% instead of 20%.

Here is what the numbers would look like given those things, assuming everything else stays the same (power/BABIP/BB%/HBP/SF/SH)

PA	AB	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	BABIP	OPS
600	562	35	2	25	27	108	.288	.324	.491	.316	.815
600	562	35	2	25	27	120	.281	.317	.484	.315	.801

So basically that 10% decrease led to 12 fewer strikeouts and 14 points of OPS.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

So basically that 10% decrease led to 12 fewer strikeouts and 14 points of OPS.

Doesn't that assume the 12 fewer K's translate into hits or BB's? the other possibility is an out correct? And since you have not increased his BB's that leaves either hit or out. Assuming a 70% out rate, you are talking about 2-4 singles here. Maybe.

Or am I missing something.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by TRF

Doesn't that assume the 12 fewer K's translate into hits or BB's? the other possibility is an out correct? And since you have not increased his BB's that leaves either hit or out. Assuming a 70% out rate, you are talking about 2-4 singles here. Maybe.

Or am I missing something.

I actually left everything stagnate but 12 more balls in play. Yes, it wound up as 4 singles. Still, those 4 singles that are no longer outs were worth 14 points of OPS. However given what I showed, he probably would have added 1 XBH in there, but really its not a big difference. Still, the point remains, those 4 singles are decently valuable at the end of the year.

[urdun]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I actually left everything stagnate but 12 more balls in play. Yes, it wound up as 4 singles. Still, those 4 singles that are no longer outs were worth 14 points of OPS. However given what I showed, he probably would have added 1 XBH in there, but really its not a big difference. Still, the point remains, those 4 singles are decently valuable at the end of the year.

So Doug what does his line in Louisville next season need to look like for us to believe he has advanced far enough to be an impact bat ever? I think Brutus suggested better than a 3:1 ratio do you see it the same way? Or is just a smaller incremental improvement enough? Worst case scenario I imagine he'll be up in September anyway so please take that into consideration.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by urdun

So Doug what does his line in Louisville next season need to look like for us to believe he has advanced far enough to be an impact bat ever? I think Brutus suggested better than a 3:1 ratio do you see it the same way? Or is just a smaller incremental improvement enough? Worst case scenario I imagine he'll be up in September anyway so please take that into consideration.

I want to see a 3:1 K to BB rate before I believe he can be an impact bat at the major league level who can OPS .825+ in multiple years.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I actually left everything stagnate but 12 more balls in play. Yes, it wound up as 4 singles. Still, those 4 singles that are no longer outs were worth 14 points of OPS. However given what I showed, he probably would have added 1 XBH in there, but really its not a big difference. Still, the point remains, those 4 singles are decently valuable at the end of the year.

They also may have resulted in several double plays. It works both ways.

I agree with you on the BB:K ratio. I don't agree with you on the K's being a problem.

And I really don't think 4 hits over the course of a year mean all that much. get that to 15-20 hits, sure. The problem is there is no way to tell what 12 ball in play really mean, because there is no context. All 12 could come with two outs and nobody on. There are any number of situations, some positive, some negative. And each year is unique.

IMO, the K's aren't a problem, his overall OBP is, and I think he's improving that. Outs are outs.

[urdun]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I want to see a 3:1 K to BB rate before I believe he can be an impact bat at the major league level who can OPS .825+ in multiple years.

So seeing as how he has improved his K rates over time it stands to reason that is probably where he will have the best chance to improve. A 15% K rate and a 5% BB rate at minimum sounds possible.

His past numbers ignoring his late short stints show this.

2006 - 3.2% - 18.4%
2007 - 4.1% - 28.6%
2008 - 3.5% - 22.7%
2009 - 4.3% - 19.6%
2010 - 5.0% - 15.0% ???

Seems doable.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by urdun

So seeing as how he has improved his K rates over time it stands to reason that is probably where he will have the best chance to improve. A 15% K rate and a 5% BB rate at minimum sounds possible.

His past numbers ignoring his late short stints show this.

2006 - 3.2% - 18.4%
2007 - 4.1% - 28.6%
2008 - 3.5% - 22.7%
2009 - 4.3% - 19.6%
2010 - 5.0% - 15.0% ???

Seems doable.

Unless he changes his swing, I think you're seeing what is more or less the bottom range of his strikeout range -- call it 18%. He's at the point where it's more about contact than selectivity, about hitting certain kinds of strikes rather than chasing too many balls. That said, I do think it's reasonable to hope he can push his walk rate north of 6%. I'm not saying I expect him to do that, but if he does reach a 3:1 K/BB, I think that's the more likely route.

[mace]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I want to see a 3:1 K to BB rate before I believe he can be an impact bat at the major league level who can OPS .825+ in multiple years.

So I guess that represents how far apart we are.

Unless I've misfigured, counting his short MLB stint, Francisco had 588 PA this year with 122 K and 27 BB. Those percentages are 20.7 and 4.6. If we get to 3:1 with walks, he'd have to reach 6.9 pct. That would require an additional 13 walks. So that's our difference. Roughly one walk every two weeks.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by TRF

They also may have resulted in several double plays. It works both ways.

I agree with you on the BB:K ratio. I don't agree with you on the K's being a problem.

And I really don't think 4 hits over the course of a year mean all that much. get that to 15-20 hits, sure. The problem is there is no way to tell what 12 ball in play really mean, because there is no context. All 12 could come with two outs and nobody on. There are any number of situations, some positive, some negative. And each year is unique.

IMO, the K's aren't a problem, his overall OBP is, and I think he's improving that. Outs are outs.

The K's are what is limiting his OBP with the walks. If his OBP is a problem, then the K's are also part of the problem. Those extra singles matter, even if its just 4. It boosts his OBP by 7 points at the end of the year.

Originally Posted by urdun

So seeing as how he has improved his K rates over time it stands to reason that is probably where he will have the best chance to improve. A 15% K rate and a 5% BB rate at minimum sounds possible.

His past numbers ignoring his late short stints show this.

2006 - 3.2% - 18.4%
2007 - 4.1% - 28.6%
2008 - 3.5% - 22.7%
2009 - 4.3% - 19.6%
2010 - 5.0% - 15.0% ???

Seems doable.

I don't know if 15% is doable. If he gets there then he certainly is going to be fine, but that's a 25% better clip than where he was at this year before seeing AAA/MLB.

Originally Posted by mace

So I guess that represents how far apart we are.

Unless I've misfigured, counting his short MLB stint, Francisco had 588 PA this year with 122 K and 27 BB. Those percentages are 20.7 and 4.6. If we get to 3:1 with walks, he'd have to reach 6.9 pct. That would require an additional 13 walks. So that's our difference. Roughly one walk every two weeks.

The problem is 13 walks to Francisco is a 48% increase to what he did last year. That is more than a significant increase. Its astronomical.

[lollipopcurve]

In large part, this is eyeballs vs. numbers, that ancient divide.

[TRF]

Outs are outs. 12 extra balls in play Might mean four single, or it might mean 12 flyouts. reducing K's doesn't mean an increase in BA.

Ask Adam Dunn.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by TRF

Outs are outs. 12 extra balls in play Might mean four single, or it might mean 12 flyouts. reducing K's doesn't mean an increase in BA.

Ask Adam Dunn.

Usually you can count on a few more hits. Regardless of the hitter, this is pretty steady. Sure, in a very small sample, it does not necessarily mean exactly three or four hits in 12 balls in play, but you can almost bank on the batting average being improved over the course of enough added BIP.

[HokieRed]

First task of the game is, after all, to hit the ball.