Reds Offseason '09 - '10

[RedLegSuperStar]

Now that everyones beloved Yankees.. Baseballs 200+ Million dollar team won the World Series the offseason is here. This what us fans hold on to to get us to spring training. The Reds have so holes to fix and not a lot of dough to spend. This could be a long offseason unless ownership proves us wrong. Their are some big names out there and i'm sure the Yankees will get most of them

What do you expect from the Reds this offseason? Will they shed payroll? Will they just stand pat with what they have. I'll be focused on the non tenders around baseball as I think that might be our best route.

[RedsManRick]

I expect something very similar to last offseason, if not smaller. Jocketty will try to make a play for a SS in the trade market, but will be outbid. We'll bring in a few of the non-tender types to compete for LF, C, and other utility roles. Otherwise, I see this being a very quiet offseason.

[lollipopcurve]

I expect something very similar to last offseason, if not smaller. Jocketty will try to make a play for a SS in the trade market, but will be outbid. We'll bring in a few of the non-tender types to compete for LF, C, and other utility roles. Otherwise, I see this being a very quiet offseason.

I agree, for the most part. But the 1st question is, do they feel they must dump salary, i.e., one of the big contracts?

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

I agree, for the most part. But the 1st question is, do they feel they must dump salary, i.e., one of the big contracts?

I think they'd like to get rid of one of the big contracts, but Bob won't want to do too much damage to our perceived commitment to winning in the process.

- With Volquez out, that takes Harang and Arroyo off the table.
- The casual fans would likely revolt if Phillips (or I imagine that's the perception internally).
- Rolen? No way.

So in terms of big deals, that only leaves Cordero. I suppose one of the big market teams could afford him, but I doubt they'd pay full value. For us to get anything of value in return, we'd need to pay a big chunk of salary. The only team I could see taking on his full salary is the Yankees. I'm quite doubtful that happens.

The only other options for clearing payroll include the moderately priced guys. Taveras and Lincoln have zero trade value; no cost savings to be had there. Gomes (if retained or offered arbitration) and Rhodes do have trade value. I could definitely see Gomes traded in the Spring after getting a few million in arbitration.

Fundamentally, the Reds, as with most small and mid-market teams, are scared to death to trade their players that have the most value for fear of appearing to not care about winning and alienating their fans. That leaves them in a catch 22 where they find it very difficult to acquire talent through trades.

Getting back to the question, I don't think the Reds really need to shed payroll unless there are cash flow problems. The reality is that we shouldn't be in the business of buying wins at full price in free agency. It is horribly inefficient and a poor use of resources. The only reason we'll need cash is to start paying Votto, Bruce, Cueto, Volquez , and Bailey in the next few years. But those align pretty well with the big contracts we'll have coming off the books. I'm not too worried about our payroll situation.

I am worried about our talent situation. This team needs to add 10 net wins worth of talent to the major league roster to be a playoff caliber team. We aren't going to get those wins in free agency. We might get them through player development, but that's going to require a lot of things going right at the same time and the Volquez injury already sticks us behind the 8-ball there.

Frankly, I think the Reds need to move a few of their top 10 prospects to capitalize on the current roster and better align the talent base with the needs of the big league club. Trading youth for other youth or pre/early arb major league talent opens up the possibilities. I'd be shopping Alonso in particular to acquire a SS. Sitting on our hands and waiting for player developement will simply extend the convey belt process. By the time the next crop is ready, Phillips, Rolen, Harang, and Arroyo will be gone and we'll merely be replacing their production. We need to do something to add production to the major league roster now.

[Raisor]

Tony Wolmack, 2010 comeback player of the year.

[lollipopcurve]

I think they'd like to get rid of one of the big contracts, but Bob won't want to do too much damage to our perceived commitment to winning in the process.

- With Volquez out, that takes Harang and Arroyo off the table.
- The casual fans would likely revolt if Phillips (or I imagine that's the perception internally).
- Rolen? No way.

So in terms of big deals, that only leaves Cordero. I suppose one of the big market teams could afford him, but I doubt they'd pay full value. For us to get anything of value in return, we'd need to pay a big chunk of salary. The only team I could see taking on his full salary is the Yankees. I'm quite doubtful that happens.

The only other options for clearing payroll include the moderately priced guys. Taveras and Lincoln have zero trade value; no cost savings to be had there. Gomes (if retained or offered arbitration) and Rhodes do have trade value. I could definitely see Gomes traded in the Spring after getting a few million in arbitration.

Fundamentally, the Reds, as with most small and mid-market teams, are scared to death to trade their players that have the most value for fear of appearing to not care about winning and alienating their fans. That leaves them in a catch 22 where they find it very difficult to acquire talent through trades.

Getting back to the question, I don't think the Reds really need to shed payroll unless there are cash flow problems. The reality is that we shouldn't be in the business of buying wins at full price in free agency. It is horribly inefficient and a poor use of resources. The only reason we'll need cash is to start paying Votto, Bruce, Cueto, Volquez , and Bailey in the next few years. But those align pretty well with the big contracts we'll have coming off the books. I'm not too worried about our payroll situation.

I am worried about our talent situation. This team needs to add 10 net wins worth of talent to the major league roster to be a playoff caliber team. We aren't going to get those wins in free agency. We might get them through player development, but that's going to require a lot of things going right at the same time and the Volquez injury already sticks us behind the 8-ball there.

Frankly, I think the Reds need to move a few of their top 10 prospects to capitalize on the current roster and better align the talent base with the needs of the big league club. Trading youth for other youth or pre/early arb major league talent opens up the possibilities. I'd be shopping Alonso in particular to acquire a SS. Sitting on our hands and waiting for player developement will simply extend the convey belt process. By the time the next crop is ready, Phillips, Rolen, Harang, and Arroyo will be gone and we'll merely be replacing their production. We need to do something to add production to the major league roster now.

Tremendous post. I hope you're right re: the payroll situation, though I need to hear it from the team before I feel real comfortable that they won't be looking to ditch a big salary. There's been a pretty fair-sized cloud of rumor around Arroyo from time to time, so, with the emergence of Bailey (and a decent showing from Maloney, late), I could see the team peddling him, given that his value has to be the highest it's been in a long time. Further, the addition of Bryan Price may signal that the team is looking to rely more on arms that need coaching, and there have been whispers the minorlty owners are unhappy with the team's payroll situation. We'll know soon enough....

Agree re: the need to package some prospects for a solid add to the major league roster. This tends to be Jocketty's MO, and, with the addition of Rolen, he's already pulled the trigger on that kind of deal once. I agree that Alonso is the logical choice to move, given that Votto is now well established and still affordable. They could use another year to evaluate Frazier/Francisco/Heisey/Stubbs/Dickerson, so that there's less of a chance they deal the wrong one(s).

[savafan]

Can we be sure that Votto's anxiety issues are behind him though?

[Reds4Life]

The Reds will do thier usual, which is nothing. Then will wonder after next year why the results, and the product, still suck.

It has become the annual Cincinnati Reds tradition.

[toledodan]

i hope frazier and heisey have a good enough spring that they force the reds to take them north.

1. cf) stubbs
2. lf) heisey
3. 1b) votto
4. ss) philips
5. 3b) rolen
6. rf) bruce
7. 2b) frazier
8. c) hanigan
9. pitcher

most agree we wont win anything next year(hope i'm wrong). we need to give this team a chance to grow.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by savafan

Can we be sure that Votto's anxiety issues are behind him though?

As somebody who deals with anxiety issues, I think its safe to say they will never be "behind him". However, I do think it's fair to say that there aren't likely to be events in his life much more traumatic than losing his father. Having dealt with that and come back very strong, I'm sure he's grown in his ability to manage his anxiety. But at the end of the day, I'm comfortable putting my trust in a guy who is by all accounts a mature, hard-working leader with all-star talent -- just make sure to give him the support he needs and treat his them with the same care and respect you treat any physical condition.

[TheNext44]

I am convinced that the Reds are will try to get either a big bat in LF, or a solid #2-3 starting pitcher.

Jocketty never has been a big player in the Free Agent market, and likes to pick up either guys coming off down years or who don't fit with their current club, via trade. Not really sure who that will be, but I see a package of 10-20 ranked prospects going to get a guy with an short, affordable contract that Jocketty hopes can have a big year.

RMR is right about the team needing at least 10 wins to be a contender, but I think that around 5 of those can come with improvement from whoever is in CF, Rolen being at 3B all season, Bruce maturing and being healthy all year (fingers crossed) and continued development from Cueto and Bailey. That's only one win a piece from each of them, which is very doable.

On the downside, I could see a decline in the production from the bullpen. Cordero is not getting younger, and getting close to that age when production decreases. Not sure Rhodes has another great year left in him. Not positive Masset can repeat what he did last year, and same for Herrera. Fisher might improve a bit, Owings might be better in the pen, and maybe someone from Viola, Ramirez, Bray, Ondrusek or Watson will surprise next year, but overall, I think the bullpen regresses by at least one win next season.

[TheNext44]

Just for extra information:

This pretty much eats up any payflex the Reds might have had.

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/200...tiwouldexpect/

Nick Masset and Jared Burton are arbitration eligible as Super 2s. Micah Owings is not.

Super 2s are players with more than two years of service time but less than three. The top 17 percent of that group as far as service time becomes arbitration-eligible. Owings came close to the cut off. He’s got 2.139 years of service time. Masset made made it with 2.146.

Jonny Gomes, Laynce Nix and Corky Miller are also arbitration-eligible

Masset and Burton are locks to be offered contract. Gomes is iffy. I think if Nix and Miller are back it will be under minor league deals.

[klw]

Would the Phillies be a target for moving Cordero? I could be wrong but I thought I heard some talk about the Phils having issues with their pen.

[bucksfan2]

Originally Posted by klw

Would the Phillies be a target for moving Cordero? I could be wrong but I thought I heard some talk about the Phils having issues with their pen.

Brad Lidge is set to make 10:$11.5M, 11:$11.5M, 12:$12.5M club option ($1.5M buyout). I don't see them taking Cordero if the Reds don't take Lidge.

[Mario-Rijo]

Listening to MIke and MIke this morning and Buster Olney says to expect a massive amounts of arbitration eligible players to flat out be cut with no compensation, basically be given their FA status. He stated a couple of names in particular Jeremy Hermida being one and at this moment the other name escapes me. Apparently he has been told this by lots of GM's around the league, more good news for the big market teams more bad news for the rest of baseball. Said Dozens of players will be cut upwards to perhaps 70-100 players between now and Dec. 12. The other player he spoke about was Garret Atkins.

I would so love to have Hermida out in LF but I suspect that won't happen.


Podcast on ESPN mlb page about the growing disparity in baseball.

ESPN.com Midway down on the left side of the page.