Who is Redszone's #17 prospect?

[Bumstead]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

Viola + Del Rosario + Ondrusek (3 guys who WILL pitch out of the BP for the Reds, and perhaps well), 3 votes = Donnie Joseph, 3 votes (who might pitch out of the pen for the Reds)???

These rankings skew way too far toward the newly drafted.

Not disagreeing but shouldn't a "prospect" be judged by how much better he can make the parent club, not by the fact that he might make the team because they have no other options? That's why I am tired of hearing about Maloney, Valaika, Dorn, etc...the Reds won't get better because of those guys, they may make the team for awhile until someone that can actually improve the team comes along....filler, not prospects. I think some of those guys you mentioned have a chance to make the Reds better however.

Bum

[thatcoolguy_22]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

These rankings skew way too far toward the newly drafted.

I'm doing all of my voting on ceiling. If the guy who is on the cusp of playing in the majors and his career year will equal a sub league average #5 SP is heads up in a poll versus an 18 year old kid who scouts like, I'm taking the kid 90% of the time.

[thatcoolguy_22]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Dorn's career .930 OPS against RHP and his line from June-End of the Season at AAA that was .324/.393/.551 over 250 plate appearances sound about right. Dorn got off to a slow start in April/May but he obliterated the baseball for the rest of the season to a tune slightly better than his minor league career before that point.

If you want to say that then in the 2 games played in the day he OPS'ed .393. There, now we all get to pick and choose the numbers we use for the whole season...

On Dorn's glove...

Originally Posted by redsof72

I could be wrong, but I don't think the Reds are as high on Dorn as some would suggest here. We will find out soon enough if I am wrong or others are wrong. Based on what I have heard, I just don't think they feel he can play any position defensively at an adequate level by big league standards.

followed by

Originally Posted by dougdirt

That is what I hear as well, but I just don't buy into that the way that they do.

and this is quoted for truth

Originally Posted by redsof72

I am not taking a position on Dorn because I have not seen him play. But I have been told by some key people with the Reds that they moved him to first base last spring, not because he could play there, but because they were trying to find some place he COULD play.

Triple-A rosters are filled with guys who hit much better than Dorn has but get stuck in Triple-A because the big league manager does not trust him defensively. A guy like Jon Knott averaged 28 homers a year for four straight years and got 17 big league at-bats because he could not be trusted in the field. There are lots of Brian Buchannon, Kevin Witt types. But when the manager dips down to Triple-A to find someone, he calls up Dewayne Wise or Darnell McDonald.

If you are going to play defense like Adam Dunn, you better hit like Adam Dunn. Because every time a ball lands on the warning track that a decent outfielder would have caught, which happens all the time, the manager starts second guessing himself, he starts hearing it from the pitchers and the pitching coach, and GM starts hearing it from the pitchers' agents. If the guy is winning games with his bat, it is another story. But he better be doing a lot of hitting. Even guys like Gomes and Nix, while not gold glovers, do have at least adequate range and overall defensive skills.

If Dorn had no range in the field and can't run the bases, he can still play in the big leagues, but there is a narrow profile he has to fit and it includes a lot of offense.

The quoting is easier than summarizing

The Reds don't have a DH.

[BEETTLEBUG]

Dorn again

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by thatcoolguy_22

If you want to say that then in the 2 games played in the day he OPS'ed .393. There, now we all get to pick and choose the numbers we use for the whole season...

Except you are talking about a 2 game sample. At the worst I am talking about a 250 plate appearance sample, that falls in line with another sample of 1500 PA.

[Spring~Fields]

Originally Posted by thatcoolguy_22

what about a .793 OPS in AAA for a corner OF is interesting? Not to mention his Dunn like OF defense. I'll take the cathedral ceiling of a Silva any day over the lean-to height of Dorn's promise at this point.

Career Minor Stats       OBP  SLG OPS    GPA
Jay Bruce		.366 .551 .917	0.3024 5 Seasons
Daniel Dorn		.375 .509 .884	0.2960 4 Seasons
Joey Votto 		.386 .477 .862	0.2929 7 Seasons
Wladimir Balentien	.345 .526 .871	0.2867 6 Seasons
Todd Frazier 		.367 .491 .858	0.2879 3 Seasons
Adam Rosales		.364 .491 .855 	0.2865 5 Seasons
Chris Heisey 		.369 .460 .830	0.2810 4 Seasons
Laynce Nix		.346 .481 .827	0.2759 9 Seasons
Drew Sutton		.378 .442 .820	0.2806 6 Seasons
Juan Francisco 	        .311 .482 .793	0.2604 4 Seasons
Chris Dickerson 	.363 .414 .776	0.2668 7 Seasons
Drew Stubbs 		.364 .401 .765	0.2640 4 Seasons
Paul Janish		.351 .382 .733	0.2534 5 Seasons

That is what I am going by.
What he did during his entire minor league career in comparison to other's that we think well of, that have made it to the majors or that we think we read, see and hear promise in making it to the majors soon.

I think there is one in that entire group that has proven/panned out so far, while the rest we still have to think with a bit of hope they can this or that and we hold them in favorable opin. Votto we know, the rest we optimistically wait with genuine hope. So why can't Dorn be in that mix?

[BRM]

So why can't Dorn be in that mix?

Defense seems to be the primary reason.

[REDblooded]

Originally Posted by BRM

Defense seems to be the primary reason.

that, and the fact that he probably won't see the team...

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by REDblooded

that, and the fact that he probably won't see the team...

That shouldn't really come into play. The general rule is that you should vote on a player based on what he would do if given the chance as if he weren't blocked.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by BRM

Defense seems to be the primary reason.

And yet we favor Francisco as a group, go figure. Funny because Dorn's bat has been better also. Oh I know the arguments why Francisco is better I just don't believe we treat Dorn fairly regardless.

[Bumstead]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

And yet we favor Francisco as a group, go figure. Funny because Dorn's bat has been better also. Oh I know the arguments why Francisco is better I just don't believe we treat Dorn fairly regardless.

I don't believe the floor and ceiling I projected for Dorn were unfair. Do you honestly believe that Francisco's ceiling is not higher than Dorn's? He's already reached Dorn's floor...Several of the guys listed above were younger at similar levels compared to Dorn...also, those guys can catch a baseball and actually cover some ground. For Dorn that is a questionable task.

Bum

[Bumstead]

I do admit that Francisco's defense is quite questionable...however, he is also younger and has a higher ceiling as a hitter.

Bum

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Bumstead

I do admit that Francisco's defense is quite questionable...however, he is also younger and has a higher ceiling as a hitter.

Bum

Higher ceiling yes. Higher floor? Absolutely not.

[Bumstead]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Higher ceiling yes. Higher floor? Absolutely not.

I agree about the floor. I have never been a Francisco pusher; more skeptical than most, but he is a much better prospect than Dorn.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Bumstead

I agree about the floor. I have never been a Francisco pusher; more skeptical than most, but he is a much better prospect than Dorn.

That we can agree on for sure. The upside is just enormous for him. His skillset would allow him to be a .300/.360/.600 hitter if things go right. He is just very far from that right now.