Who is Redszone's #17 prospect?

[fearofpopvol1]

Silva

[icehole3]

Originally Posted by Bumstead

haha...maybe they should platoon and have a contest...floor: stays in AAA for 8 more years and retires...ceiling: platoon LF (only) for a few years (poor defense, marginal walk rate), maybe long enough to get his pension...that's a prospect? I think Silva and almost everyone else on this list have a chance to be quite a bit better than that. IMHO

Bum

have you actually seen Dorn play or are you ripping him because your stats tell you he's bad, I was asking Scrapy because it sounded like he's seen him play recently, just wondering

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by Bumstead

I don't believe the floor and ceiling I projected for Dorn were unfair. Do you honestly believe that Francisco's ceiling is not higher than Dorn's? He's already reached Dorn's floor...Several of the guys listed above were younger at similar levels compared to Dorn...also, those guys can catch a baseball and actually cover some ground. For Dorn that is a questionable task.

Bum

Let me ask you this. What is more valuable to the Reds organization, a quality LH pinch hitter or a grocery bagger at Krogers? What Francisco may or may not do and what Dorn may or may not do in the future has yet to be determined, but Dorn's odds of sticking in the Majors is quite a bit better than Francisco's in my own opinion. And in my opinion Francisco is likely to have a long career as a journeyman 3B/1B/DH/LF in the minors at best. Now I say opinion because A.) I truly could be wrong (he could make the adustment(s) and B.) If there is a chance (no matter how slight I might think that chance is) that you could be wrong on this board you better call it an opinion.

At the end of the day if you have 1 big flaw in your game that most if not all pitchers can exploit in the majors it doesn't matter your upside, other big time tools, your minor league production or anything else. Juan has a strong possiblity of having that 1 flaw and Dorn doesn't, again IMO.

[Bumstead]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

Let me ask you this. What is more valuable to the Reds organization, a quality LH pinch hitter or a grocery bagger at Krogers? What Francisco may or may not do and what Dorn may or may not do in the future has yet to be determined, but Dorn's odds of sticking in the Majors is quite a bit better than Francisco's in my own opinion. And in my opinion Francisco is likely to have a long career as a journeyman 3B/1B/DH/LF in the minors at best. Now I say opinion because A.) I truly could be wrong (he could make the adustment(s) and B.) If there is a chance (no matter how slight I might think that chance is) that you could be wrong on this board you better call it an opinion.

At the end of the day if you have 1 big flaw in your game that most if not all pitchers can exploit in the majors it doesn't matter your upside, other big time tools, your minor league production or anything else. Juan has a strong possiblity of having that 1 flaw and Dorn doesn't, again IMO.

Dorn doesn't have a big flaw? He is a terrible defensive player and yes, I have seen him play (not enough to base my opinion solely on what I saw however; how many times have you seen him play Icehole?). With the numbers he has put up, in my opinion, if he had any future with the Reds they would have called on him before Nix, McDonald or Gomes (Is Dorn on the 40 man roster; clue #2). We disagree by a longshot on Francisco's ceiling but I am not as high on him as others are on this board. This whole series of posts are opinions, I don't think anyone on here would deny that.

Bum

[icehole3]

Originally Posted by Bumstead

Dorn doesn't have a big flaw? He is a terrible defensive player and yes, I have seen him play (not enough to base my opinion solely on what I saw however; how many times have you seen him play Icehole?). With the numbers he has put up, in my opinion, if he had any future with the Reds they would have called on him before Nix, McDonald or Gomes (Is Dorn on the 40 man roster; clue #2). We disagree by a longshot on Francisco's ceiling but I am not as high on him as others are on this board. This whole series of posts are opinions, I don't think anyone on here would deny that.

Bum

saw him in college, thats why I asked... anyway youre not telling anyone anything new, we all know he's a below average defensive player, we get that, we understand that, I asked if could play defense better than Gomes, it's a simple yes or no answer, I was asking Scrappy though.

[Bumstead]

Originally Posted by icehole3

saw him in college, thats why I asked... anyway youre not telling anyone anything new, we all know he's a below average defensive player, we get that, we understand that, I asked if could play defense better than Gomes, it's a simple yes or no answer, I was asking Scrappy though.

I thought it was a general question. Didn't feel it was earth-shattering news. I think if he was close to as "good" defensively as Gomes that the Reds would have already called on him as he is the heavy side of the platoon should his hitting ability carry forward to MLB. I'm not sure everyone gets it to be honest. No offense intended in any case.

Bum

[GOYA]

Originally Posted by Bumstead

Dorn doesn't have a big flaw? He is a terrible defensive player and yes, I have seen him play (not enough to base my opinion solely on what I saw however; how many times have you seen him play Icehole?)

I'm not Icehole but I've seen him play about 100 times. He is NOT a terrible defensive player. He's average to maybe slightly below average because of lack of speed.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Bumstead

I thought it was a general question. Didn't feel it was earth-shattering news. I think if he was close to as "good" defensively as Gomes that the Reds would have already called on him as he is the heavy side of the platoon should his hitting ability carry forward to MLB. I'm not sure everyone gets it to be honest. No offense intended in any case.

Bum

The Reds called on Gomes because he is a known thing. When was the last time the Reds went with the unknown over the known? Probably before I was born thats for sure. Dorn is every bit as good (or bad depending on how you want to look at it) as Gomes is defensively. Both guys aren't all that good when it comes to defense.

[BRM]

Who is likely to provide more total value (offense and defense) as a LF platoon partner, Dorn or Dickerson?

[texasdave]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

Viola + Del Rosario + Ondrusek (3 guys who WILL pitch out of the BP for the Reds, and perhaps well), 3 votes = Donnie Joseph, 3 votes (who might pitch out of the pen for the Reds)???

These rankings skew way too far toward the newly drafted.

Let's take a look at this underappreciated trio.

First up - Pedro Viola. Viola will turn 27 in 2010. That alone knocks him out of prospect status for me. Looking at the numbers from the last two seasons seals the deal. He can strike some folks out sure. But he also walks way too many for me - 3.9BB/9 in 2008, 6.0BB/9 in 2009. Is it possible that at age 27 Viola is going to suddenly harness his stuff? I think not likely at all.

Next up - Logan Ondrusek. Ondrusek turns 25 before the 2010 season starts which is the upper limit for me as far as calling a player a prospect. Ondrusek had a breakout 2009. A wonderful season which gives hope. But before 2009 he muddled along - for lack of a better term. His 2008 season showed an old-for-the-league Ondrusek getting lit up in a pitcher's league. He doesn't strike out a whole lot of batters and has only average control. Here is the kicker for me.
Before 2009 his BABIP was .316. In 2009 it was a ridiculous .208. (I figured out the BABIP using the formula in Wikipedia so I am sure it is fairly accurate)
Is that 2009 BABIP a mirage? I think it is.

Finally - Enerio Del Rosario. He also turns 25 in 2010 but after the season. Of the three, Del Rosario has posted the best minor league numbers. His K/9 rate is nothing special, but he isn't searching for the plate. He has fine control. I think this is important. However at age 21 his Billing numbers were subpar at best - 5.1 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9. He improved in Dayton at age 22 - 6.3 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9.

I hope all three of them pitch for the Reds in 2010 and beyond. And I hope they all pitch well. But I don't expect that will be the case.

I will admit to some degree of bias. I watched Donnie Joseph improve yearly at the UH. And in his first season as a professional he showed me plenty. Yes, he has a long way to go, but like most minor leaguers, if he continues to improve I think he will not only get there but he will make an impact. Only time will tell.

[Bumstead]

Like I said, in all honesty I don't think people get it at all. Darnell McDonald and Lance Nix are not "known" things...well, they are, they are bad players that should only be called upon in an emergency situation. C'mon, if Dorn could handle LF at anything near a reasonable level they would have at least tried him there last year at some point. The Reds have brought up lots of minor league guys in the last few years whether they were helpful or not and given them opportunities. There are reasons Valaika and Dorn have not gotten those opportunities. Some of you love those AAA guys...yeah they are nearest Cincy in the organization, but most of them are not ever going to be of any value to the Reds (or probably any other organization). IMHO

Bum

[Spring~Fields]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

The Reds called on Gomes because he is a known thing. When was the last time the Reds went with the unknown over the known? Probably before I was born thats for sure. Dorn is every bit as good (or bad depending on how you want to look at it) as Gomes is defensively. Both guys aren't all that good when it comes to defense.

I agree with you.

Guys that turned out to be Johnny Bench, Pete Rose, David Concepcion, who knew they would become what they did because so many don’t become what they might have been. There are probably a ton of names that were minor leaguers that no one really knew for sure and they became adequate not all time greats but adequate performers at the MLB level. There was plenty of skepticism about Joey Votto, who knew that he would produce what he has.

Someone will write on this or the ORG board that, well, there must be a reason why the Reds choose to not use minor league player x or y and went with such and such instead, then we look and see something like the following players having been the Reds front office and their managers best guess in the name of evaluating and assessing available talent.

So just because the current Reds front office decides to use a Gomes, Patterson, Tevaras, Hairston Jr, McDonald or Nix over their minor league players is a very poor gauge to hold fast to in my thinking because many of their fillers are much less than desirable in the end. I am sometimes surprised that even a Joey Votto got a chance with this front office and manager.

Who were those catchers that the Reds had in 2008 primarily because a Hannigan was not suppose to be able to "handle" the job. Where are they now? A few more months of seasoning made miraculous changes somehow to the player who once was thought could not handle the job? No, they went with what they thought was a known and were wrong.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by BRM

Who is likely to provide more total value (offense and defense) as a LF platoon partner, Dorn or Dickerson?

That is a tough question honestly because it depends on what kind of offense you believe Dickerson and Dorn will provide.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by texasdave

Next up - Logan Ondrusek. Ondrusek turns 25 before the 2010 season starts which is the upper limit for me as far as calling a player a prospect. Ondrusek had a breakout 2009. A wonderful season which gives hope. But before 2009 he muddled along - for lack of a better term. His 2008 season showed an old-for-the-league Ondrusek getting lit up in a pitcher's league. He doesn't strike out a whole lot of batters and has only average control. Here is the kicker for me.
Before 2009 his BABIP was .316. In 2009 it was a ridiculous .208. (I figured out the BABIP using the formula in Wikipedia so I am sure it is fairly accurate)
Is that 2009 BABIP a mirage? I think it is.

To be fair, Ondrusek added a cutter in 2009 that he didn't throw prior to this. There is also evidence out there that the cut fastball is the most effective pitch in baseball. While Ondrusek's BABIP was unsustainable, if it reaches back to .300 his ERA still would have been under 3.00 this season.

Finally - Enerio Del Rosario. He also turns 25 in 2010 but after the season. Of the three, Del Rosario has posted the best minor league numbers. His K/9 rate is nothing special, but he isn't searching for the plate. He has fine control. I think this is important. However at age 21 his Billing numbers were subpar at best - 5.1 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9. He improved in Dayton at age 22 - 6.3 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9.

The biggest thing with Del Rosario is that he is an elite groundball pitcher, thus keeping the ball in the yard. When coupled with not giving up the free pass, it goes a long way toward success.

With all of that said, I voted to Joseph. I think he can have the best career of them all.

[texasdave]

To be fair, Ondrusek added a cutter in 2009 that he didn't throw prior to this. There is also evidence out there that the cut fastball is the most effective pitch in baseball. While Ondrusek's BABIP was unsustainable, if it reaches back to .300 his ERA still would have been under 3.00 this season.

Good for him. I'm serious. If a newly-added cutter has shifted his career path to a higher level then that is great news for Reds fans. Player development is a key for this organization.

The biggest thing with Del Rosario is that he is an elite groundball pitcher, thus keeping the ball in the yard. When coupled with not giving up the free pass, it goes a long way toward success.

Keep those pitching prospects flowing down the pipeline.