Who is Redszone's #18 prospect?

[Kingspoint]

So, is Lehr considered a lock to make the Major League club? Is that why he isn't considered a prospect?

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Kingspoint

So, is Lehr are considered a lock to make the Major League club? Is that why he isn't considered a prospect?

Too much time in the majors and he no longer qualifies as a rookie.

Besides, he's 32. Not really a guy for the future nor does he have any value in trade.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by Red Daddy

Look, I hope you're right. I'd never heard he had five tools. I wonder why he was drafted so late if he had all these raw tools. I'll be cautiously optimistic now on Silva and will certainly be watching him very closely. However, right now I see many others I like much more than him. We'll just have to agree to disagree for now and see what happens.

Look not to be a wiseguy here, but if you don't know Silva's scouting report how can you justify putting anyone ahead of him?

[mace]

Originally Posted by chicoruiz

Every year there's one guy I have to vote for about seven times before he struggles across the finish line. This year I'm proud to say it's Donnie Joseph.

For me, that's usually Mace Thurman.

I like Joseph, but compare the two of them. Both are lefty relievers. Both were born in '87 (Thurman is seven months older). Thurman has two years of professional ball under his belt, Joseph one. Thurman has pitched at a higher level. And Thurman's numbers are better across the board . . . ERA, WHIP, K/9, K:BB, you name it.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by mace

For me, that's usually Mace Thurman.

I like Joseph, but compare the two of them. Both are lefty relievers. Both were born in '87 (Thurman is seven months older). Thurman has two years of professional ball under his belt, Joseph one. Thurman has pitched at a higher level. And Thurman's numbers are better across the board . . . ERA, WHIP, K/9, K:BB, you name it.

Except Jospeh has better stuff, thus projects to be a better major leaguer and that is what matters.

[mace]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Except Jospeh has better stuff, thus projects to be a better major leaguer and that is what matters.

Could be. But there are a lot of hazards in projecting simply by stuff. I wouldn't be so quick to shortchange a guy with a 2.15 career ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 and 3.26 K/BB. Now, there's some good stuff.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by mace

Could be. But there are a lot of hazards in projecting simply by stuff. I wouldn't be so quick to shortchange a guy with a 2.15 career ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 and 3.26 K/BB. Now, there's some good stuff.

No, those are good numbers. Don't get me wrong, I like Thurman. But he is probably a 6th inning guy. Joseph could be an 8th inning guy. And sure, there are hazards to projecting simply off of stuff, but its not like Joseph is coming out of the pen looking like Sean Watson did this past season. Prior to his last two outings when Dayton had no other choice but to use him every day, he was flat out dominating the MWL.

[Lockdwn11]

Originally Posted by Red Daddy

I'm with you on this one. This out of the blue man-love for Silva baffles me. Here's a few that I would easily take over Silva's 31% strikeout average.

1. Rojas- amazing glove, bat coming on
2. Serrano- great college year, very good pro start, big arm
3. Fellhauer- better than Silva's first year and in Dayton.
4. Sappelt- 295 average in Fla league, best centerfielder in system, 42 SBs.
5. Joseph- big arm albeit a relief pitcher
6. Sulburan- big arm, needs consistantly
7. How about Howard Johnson- GREAT first year
8. Henry Rodriguez batted 336!!! in low rookie ball
9. Jordon Smith- known prospect, just injured last year.
10. Del Rosario- tore up all leagues last year.

I also like Tuttle, Lecure, Cline, Ondrusek, and Fairel better than Silva. That's 15 other prospects right there.

In his last 32 ABs, Silva batted 250 and had 11 strikeouts in low rookie, I just don't see it. I must have missed something.

Just what did Josh Fellhauer do that was better than what Juan Silva did?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Lockdwn11

Just what did Josh Fellhauer do that was better than what Juan Silva did?

Played at a higher level, incredibly better strikeout rate and had just as much power while still having a good walk rate and solid speed. My question is, what did Silva do that was better than Fellhauer outside of have a .400 BABIP?

[Lockdwn11]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Played at a higher level, incredibly better strikeout rate and had just as much power while still having a good walk rate and solid speed. My question is, what did Silva do that was better than Fellhauer outside of have a .400 BABIP?

I'm glad you asked. He got on base at a higher % , he out slugged Fellhauer and while Fellhauer walked at a decent rate Silva walked at a much better rate. Silva also stole as many bases. I know Fellhauer was two levels higher but Silva is 3 years younger and didn't have the advantage of playing 3 years of college ball.

[Red Daddy]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

Look not to be a wiseguy here, but if you don't know Silva's scouting report how can you justify putting anyone ahead of him?

Please post that amazing scouting report for me. I've seen Yorman's, Duran's, Sulbaran's, Fairel's, Tuttle's, Serrano's, and others, but I've missed Silva's. I hear he's 5 tool, but I've seen no scouting report. And seriously, maybe I missed it.

[Lockdwn11]

Originally Posted by Red Daddy

Please post that amazing scouting report for me. I've seen Yorman's, Duran's, Sulbaran's, Fairel's, Tuttle's, Serrano's, and others, but I've missed Silva's. I hear he's 5 tool, but I've seen no scouting report. And seriously, maybe I missed it.

So what you are saying is you don't know anything about the guy? Maybe that is why this out of the blue man-love for Silva baffles you.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Lockdwn11

I'm glad you asked. He got on base at a higher % , he out slugged Fellhauer and while Fellhauer walked at a decent rate Silva walked at a much better rate. Silva also stole as many bases. I know Fellhauer was two levels up but Silva is 3 years younger and didn't have the advantage of playing 3 years of college ball.

But his higher OBP is based on a .400 BABIP. His slugging is more of the same (IsoP's were within .010 of each other, meaning the power difference was next to zero difference). While Silva did have the better walk rate, his overall plate discipline was much worse. Silva does have better speed, I will give him that one.

To make note of just how much BABIP comes into play with these two guys, lets just swap BABIP between them and see how the lines play out.

Fellhauer with Silva's BABIP would have hit .356/.420/.530. Silva with Fellhauers BABIP would have hit .217/.317/.399.

The difference was, Fellhauers BABIP was .300, what you would expect guys to be at. Silva doesn't look so hot with a normal BABIP does he with that.716 OPS. The kid has tools and the beginnings of a nice swing, so don't get me wrong. I like him plenty, but his performance this year wasn't anything special outside of some incredible luck that took his line from average to excellent.

[Lockdwn11]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

But his higher OBP is based on a .400 BABIP. His slugging is more of the same (IsoP's were within .010 of each other, meaning the power difference was next to zero difference). While Silva did have the better walk rate, his overall plate discipline was much worse. Silva does have better speed, I will give him that one.

To make note of just how much BABIP comes into play with these two guys, lets just swap BABIP between them and see how the lines play out.

Fellhauer with Silva's BABIP would have hit .356/.420/.530. Silva with Fellhauers BABIP would have hit .217/.317/.399.

The difference was, Fellhauers BABIP was .300, what you would expect guys to be at. Silva doesn't look so hot with a normal BABIP does he with that.716 OPS. The kid has tools and the beginnings of a nice swing, so don't get me wrong. I like him plenty, but his performance this year wasn't anything special outside of some incredible luck that took his line from average to excellent.

So if the vote was between Silva or Fellhauer you would take?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Lockdwn11

So if the vote was between Silva or Fellhauer you would take?

Fellhauer. Right now he looks to be the better major leaguer, even though I don't think his upside is high, he is a TON safer of a bet while still having a solid upside.