Who is Redszone's #26 prospect?

[camisadelgolf]

He broke it, and the Reds elected for him not to have surgery. It turns out that the physical therapy didn't work and that he should have had Tommy John surgery in the first place. It happens all the time except most teams just go straight to the surgery. But in the case of Lotzkar, they thought it might be better if they tried to skip surgery since he's so young. I remember the first time the injury happened, people were hardly worried about it. If people thought the injury wasn't a big deal in the first place, why would it bother them the second--especially when you consider that the recovery rate for Tommy John surgery patients is very high?

Just this year, Travis Webb came back from TJ surgery and managed to produce almost identical numbers at a higher level. Scott Gaffney came back from TJ surgery and improved his numbers at a higher level (which is far from unheard of). Todd Coffey had TJ surgery in the minors and is now performing better than ever. Adam Rosales had TJ surgery, and the Reds are still comfortable with him having a strong enough arm to play third base. In the past, Erik Bedard, Ryan Dempster, John Smoltz, Mariano Rivera, Kenny Rogers, etc. have all come back from the surgery just fine--and often with improved results and one or two more ticks on the fastball. We saw Jose Rijo come back from it three times. It's not until you start to mention shoulder surgeries that I start to write a prospect off.

I'm sticking with Lotzkar until he's picked.

[OnBaseMachine]

As I said before, if Lotzkar had just the Tommy John surgery I wouldn't be worried, it's the fact that he's broken his elbow twice PLUS had Tommy John surgery. IMO, a broken elbow is a lot worse than TJ surgery.

[camisadelgolf]

It makes sense to me that you would let it bother you, but to be fair, the broken bone was seen as a fluke injury and was a minor break.

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

It makes sense to me that you would let it bother you, but to be fair, the broken bone was seen as a fluke injury and was a minor break.

And then he broke it again. I don't see it as a fluke after it happens a second time. I hope like heck he bounces back and has a great career but it's going to be tough.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

And then he broke it again. I don't see it as a fluke after it happens a second time. I hope like heck he bounces back and has a great career but it's going to be tough.

It never fully healed the first time.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

It never fully healed the first time.

Maybe, but the point still remains about the stuff.... because of the arm breaking the Reds were talking about taking away his best pitch. That certainly changes his ceiling.

[camisadelgolf]

So if not 26, where would you guys rank Kyle Lotzkar? 30s? 40s? 50s? Lower?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

So if not 26, where would you guys rank Kyle Lotzkar? 30s? 40s? 50s? Lower?

I would start considering him in the mid 40's. There is just way too much unknown with him at this point and then top it off with 3 significant injuries and its just way too high for him here. At least for me.

[OnBaseMachine]

I'll consider him somewhere in the 33-40 range.

[redsfandan]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Maybe, but the point still remains about the stuff.... because of the arm breaking the Reds were talking about taking away his best pitch. That certainly changes his ceiling.

What about his mechanics? Could that be improved instead so he could keep his curve?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by redsfandan

What about his mechanics? Could that be improved instead so he could keep his curve?

Potentially. But at that point is his curve going to be as good? Will the new mechanics cause new issues because all of his muscles, ligaments and tendons are built around how his old mechanics work? Even if that were to happen, the teaching of new mechanics, it still opens plenty of new questions.

[redsfandan]

Well there's only one way to find out if his curve would still be as good. If his mechanics aren't that great now I'd want to at least see if they could be worked on. I'm not saying it would have to be a radical change like totally redoing his mechanics but any improvements could help. Do it slowly and don't rush him back and the chances of further injuries should be decreased. But if they just go ahead and take away his curve instead will that hurt his potential enough that he'll be less likely to even see the big leagues?

[mace]

It looks like the next poll should be a free-for-all. We've got five guys within two votes.

To me, this is where it starts to get real interesting. Because you're no longer just ranking prospects, but identifying them. We all know that Frazier and Leake, et al, are going to be around the top, but what do we make of Mace Thurman, Ezequiel Infante, Joe Krebs, Tucker Barnhart, Cody Puckett, Curtis Partch?

That's why I'd kind of like to see us keep going to 50. (Seems like we might have started that last year but it petered out.) Anybody else in that camp?