Reds sign Orlando Cabrera to one-year, $3M deal; option for second year

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by Jpup

Looks like, right now, Chris Heisey is the Reds left fielder unless Gomes comes back and maybe even if he does. I hope Chris has a big spring.

I'd like to see Heisey win the job and succeed, but I think the reality is that he has 245 lackluster ABs above AA to his name. He should start the year in AAA and, best case scenario, he forces their hand at mid-season.

[Bumstead]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

No, it's because UZR is becoming the flavor of the month.

Don't forget WAR...haha

[Jpup]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

I'd like to see Heisey win the job and succeed, but I think the reality is that he has 245 lackluster ABs above AA to his name. He should start the year in AAA and, best case scenario, he forces their hand at mid-season.

Pretty good in the AFL too. I think he's on the 25 man whether the Reds add anyone else or not. Jocketty seems to really like him.

[BRM]

Originally Posted by Jpup

Looks like, right now, Chris Heisey is the Reds left fielder unless Gomes comes back and maybe even if he does. I hope Chris has a big spring.

I don't think it's his, personally. I think it will be an open competition in the spring between Heisey, Dickerson, Nix, Balentien and Francisco.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by Jpup

Looks like, right now, Chris Heisey is the Reds left fielder unless Gomes comes back and maybe even if he does. I hope Chris has a big spring.

I expect Heisey to start out at AAA. I know he gets mentioned a lot, and he's close, but I think they will go with more experienced guys to begin.

But that's just out of spring training. I envision a number of the Reds AAA guys getting call ups or being traded next year in-season. There's too much talent just to leave it be.

The Reds are coming up on interesting times. They are loaded with talented position players at AAA. They have a pretty full roster in the majors. Moves will have to be made. You can't keep a Heisey or Francisco or Frazier at AAA forever if they are succeeding.

On the pitching side, it's less of a problem because there are fewer ready guys at AAA and we can envision a number of open pitching slots in 2011. There isn't the same glut of capable players.

[OnBaseMachine]

From Fangraphs:

Orlando to Cincinnati
by Jack Moore - February 2, 2010 - Share this Article

As the Reds’ rebuilding efforts move closer and closer to contention in 2010, one remaining roster hole was at SS, where incumbent Paul Janish failed to impress in 2009. The Reds attempted to boost the position on Monday, as the team agreed to a one-year contract with Orlando Cabrera that will pay the 35-year-old 3.02 million dollars.

Cabrera is a known quantity when it comes to his batting. Respectively, over the last two years, Cabrera’s put up 88 and 89 wRC+ totals against a career average of 90. Bill James, CHONE, Marcel, and the Fans all have him between 87 and 89. Over 600 plate appearances, that’s about 8 or 9 runs below average.

What will define Cabrera’s productivity in 2010 will be his defense. After consistently posting great fielding numbers in the UZR era, including a +30 overall total and +8 and +14 totals in 2007 and 2008, O-Cab hit a wall in 2009. In split time between Oakland and Minnesota, Cabrera put up an atrocious -15.3 UZR in 2010. It’s hard to imagine a player collapsing that quickly, especially one as durable as Cabrera (700+ PAs in three straight seasons). Given the measurement error possible in one season of UZR, it’s probable that Cabrera isn’t a -15 fielder now. However, given his age, it is also quite possible if not likely that Cabrera is now a below-average fielder.

Depending on if you think Cabrera is as bad as he is last year (0.5 WAR), just below average, or about -5 UZR (1.5 WAR), or still above average, or about +5 UZR (2.5 WAR), Cabrera is either a steal at $3M or a terrible signing. To the Reds, what’s more important than this signing in a vacuum is the kind of upgrade he represents over Janish.

Paul Janish may be most famous for his 90 MPH fastball, which he flashed in two Reds games last year en route to a 49.50 ERA. Janish put up a stellar +12 UZR last season in a mere 82 games (63 starts), a number backed up by excellent Fan’s Scouting Report numbers. It’s hard to believe that he’s the +24 UZR SS that his 2009 UZR numbers suggest, but +5, as CHONE projects, is very reasonable and better is possible if not probable.

Janish just can’t hit. He hasn’t hit in the minors since A-ball and hasn’t put up a .700+ OPS in AA or AAA, and in 300 major league PAs, he posted a meager 60 wRC+. His BABIP was atrocious last year, at .240, but as a fly ball hitter with minimial power (only above .100 minor league ISO once) and with many infield flies (16.0% IFFB, 7% of total PA). Even with BABIP improvement, CHONE projects a slight increase, to a 77 wRC+, but that’s still brutal. As a +5 SS, that sort of hitting perfomance makes Janish worth about 1.3 wins. With room for breakout and better fielding numbers, Janish could approach 2 WAR, much like Cabrera’s upside.

From a resource standpoint, it doesn’t appear that this is the best use of the Reds’ money. On the surface, Cabrera doesn’t appear to be a major upgrade over Janish. However, we can’t evaluate this deal in a vacuum. The Reds don’t have any other major holes in their roster, perhaps apart from depth. Given the lack of game-changing talent left on the free agent market, both at the SS position and overall, Cabrera should be a good addition. Cabrera won’t be a significant overpay unless his fielding collapse is real, and the depth added by this move could be key if the Reds find themselves in contention this year.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...-to-cincinnati

[nate]

That's an excellent take on the deal. Thanks for posting, OBM.

[Roy Tucker]

If Cabrera's defense turns out to be not so hot, it will be interesting to see how often Janish comes in as a late-inning defensive replacement.

[TheNext44]

Originally Posted by Roy Tucker

If Cabrera's defense turns out to be not so hot, it will be interesting to see how often Janish comes in as a late-inning defensive replacement.

In the press conference, when asked about Janish, Jocketty said they still plan to give Janish "lots of playing time" and wanted to continue his development. So it looks like the plan is to use him as a late inning replacement a bunch.

[camisadelgolf]

Let's say this is the bench:
C Hanigan
IF Miles
IF Janish
OF Gomes
OF Dickerson

Now that Rosales is gone, who would be the backup corner infielder? Or would the Reds carry only 11 pitchers with the last bench player being someone like Drew Sutton or Juan Francisco? I really don't think they'd carry Todd Frazier up to Cincinnati unless he were to play everyday.

[reds44]

It's not like this move is going to send Janish to AAA. He, along with Miles are going to be the two Reds primary backup infielders. It's one of the main reasons I don't get how you can't like the move. It's not like we traded Janish for OC, we have them both now.

[reds44]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

Let's say this is the bench:
C Hanigan
IF Miles
IF Janish
OF Gomes
OF Dickerson

Now that Rosales is gone, who would be the backup corner infielder? Or would the Reds carry only 11 pitchers with the last bench player being someone like Drew Sutton or Juan Francisco? I really don't think they'd carry Todd Frazier up to Cincinnati unless he were to play everyday.

They won't carry Francisco as a bench player either, IMO.

I'm pretty sure Miles played some 3rd base with the Cubs last year, so I think he'd be the primary backup 3rd baseman. Obviously if he were out for an extended period of time Francisco or Frazier would come up.

[camisadelgolf]

Miles has a mediocre-at-best bat even for a middle infielder. The thought of him getting 20+ starts at 3B really bothers me. I still like the trade that sent out Taveras and Rosales, but I really wonder if the Reds would've been better off just DFAing Taveras.

[Sea Ray]

Miles would be the backup corner INF but that scenario does bring up a great point and that is that an 11 man pitching staff to start the year would be preferable. They need more than 5 bench players. I'd like that last bench spot to go to a LH hitter with some pop like Nix or Francisco

[Sea Ray]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

Miles has a mediocre-at-best bat even for a middle infielder. The thought of him getting 20+ starts at 3B really bothers me. I still like the trade that sent out Taveras and Rosales, but I really wonder if the Reds would've been better off just DFAing Taveras.

I don't know that Rosales' bat is any more potent than Miles'.