Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

[Kingspoint]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I checked it a few times, then did a search for both Reds and Alonso in firefox for spelling errors. How one goes from a 5 start prospect in 2009 to beating the crap out of the FSL to a wrist injury to a 3 star prospect and not inside a Top 101 prospect list is mind boggling to me.

The group at baseball prospectus that decided Alonso is not a Top-100 prospect has lost their minds.

They've just lost all credibility with me.

They obvioulsy didn't "watch" him last season, or they wouldn't rank him so ridiculously low. It's OK to be wrong about a couple of guys, but not a guy who "starred" in College, was drafted exactly where he should have been in the draft, and has done nothing to change his original projections other than have an injury that caused him to miss considerable time and approach his hitting slightly differently from normal.

It all doesn't matter, as a year from now he'll be playing in the Majors and making everyone who "thought" he had no power or couldn't hit look like fools for "guessing" on his abilities instead of taking a look at him in person.

If it was my job to work at baseball prospectus, there's no way I don't view every one of the Top-250 prospects in person, who play baseball East of the Mississippi river. And, if I did watch him and can't recognize the talent that makes up Yonder Alonso, I'd get out of the business forever, because I obviously don't know what I'm talking about.

Yonder Alonso=Jack Clark

Alonso was, is and will always be an RBI-Machine. At the end of every season, there's only one thing I'll be interested in from Alonso, and that's how many RBI's did he get. The answer will always be "an inordinately high number compared to the number of opportunities he had".

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Kingspoint

The group at baseball prospectus that decided Alonso is not a Top-100 prospect has lost their minds.

No group think at BP. Its just Kevin Goldstein over at BP doing their rankings.

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by Kingspoint

The group at baseball prospectus that decided Alonso is not a Top-100 prospect has lost their minds.

They've just lost all credibility with me.

They obvioulsy didn't "watch" him last season, or they wouldn't rank him so ridiculously low. It's OK to be wrong about a couple of guys, but not a guy who "starred" in College, was drafted exactly where he should have been in the draft, and has done nothing to change his original projections other than have an injury that caused him to miss considerable time and approach his hitting slightly differently from normal.

It all doesn't matter, as a year from now he'll be playing in the Majors and making everyone who "thought" he had no power or couldn't hit look like fools for "guessing" on his abilities instead of taking a look at him in person.

If it was my job to work at baseball prospectus, there's no way I don't view every one of the Top-250 prospects in person, who play baseball East of the Mississippi river. And, if I did watch him and can't recognize the talent that makes up Yonder Alonso, I'd get out of the business forever, because I obviously don't know what I'm talking about.

Yonder Alonso=Jack Clark

Alonso was, is and will always be an RBI-Machine. At the end of every season, there's only one thing I'll be interested in from Alonso, and that's how many RBI's did he get. The answer will always be "an inordinately high number compared to the number of opportunities he had".

1. I'm pretty sure someone at BP has seen Alonso play multiple times. Goldstein likely has seen all of them live. If he hasn't, he's at least seen video. (If not, he has no business doing the rankings, I agree.)
2. It doesn't matter where someone is drafted; it matters how they produce and how scouts foresee them playing in the future.
3. So if a person sees him in person and they still don't view him as a top prospect, they're simply wrong because his skills are that apparent? Hyperbole.
4. Not only that, if someone disagrees with you, they're so wrong they should get out of the sport? Ridiculous.
5. Yonder Alonso= Jack Clark? Supposedly, Alonso's best tool is his ability to hit for average. Clark struggled to hit for average for most of his career. The comparison is flawed.
6. RBI is a team-dependent stat that has little bearing on the talent of a prospect. Your assertion that he is an RBI machine is, at best, a minor point, and, most likely, a nonstarter for every serious prospect guru in the business.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Smoak after his injury fell apart in AAA (sounds just like Alonso, but one level lower). Smoak may switch hit, but he can't hit lefties (at least not if you think Alonso can't hit lefties - peripherals and numbers are almost exactly the same vs lefties). Smoak plays better defense, but its a small amount better. Pre draft reports on Smoak having plus defense were far exaggerated and still hang around some for some reason. Is Smoak a better prospect? I can buy the argument that he is, though I think if he is its by a small amount. The comparison is that we have two guys with extremely similar skills who beat up a league in the first half, got injured and then didn't perform as well after the injury in the second half who both play the same position and have not proven they can hit lefties (though I believe both will be able to in time). One guy goes from a .950 OPS ceiling (KG said this last year on Alonso) to a guy at least 58 spots behind another first baseman who was compared to Lyle Overbay (Brett Wallace), while Justin Smoak stays a Top 20 prospect.

Once again ignoring the fact that Smoak is at least one full level ahead, and has performed drastically better when compared at the same (AA and AFL) levels. No mention in there whatsoever.

The amount of delusion that abounds is astounding.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Once again ignoring the fact that Smoak is at least one full level ahead, and has performed drastically better when compared at the same (AA and AFL) levels. No mention in there whatsoever.

The amount of delusion that abounds is astounding.

Smoak was a level ahead. Its an advantage. He also got owned in AAA too. Of course he was injured too. Its tough to compare the AA stats, as Alonso was injured while in AA, had a small sample size of 3 weeks and the drastic difference between the two leagues in terms of scoring environments. Still, what are the most ideal projections for each player? Does one guy truly separate himself from the other? I don't see it.

[REDblooded]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Once again ignoring the fact that Smoak is at least one full level ahead, and has performed drastically better when compared at the same (AA and AFL) levels. No mention in there whatsoever.

The amount of delusion that abounds is astounding.

I think you're vastly overrating the actual level, and blindly stumbling past the differences in leagues...

Go read this thread ( http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=80522 ), take a deep look at the comparisons, and reassess your argument... Simply looking at A+/AA/AAA is a hugely flawed baseline of reasoning.

Also, check out this eye-boggling list of PCL pitching greats from last season... So many top prospects dotting the list it's absurd...

http://pacificcoast.league.milb.com/...d=112&sid=l112

/sarcasm

[TheNext44]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Once again ignoring the fact that Smoak is at least one full level ahead, and has performed drastically better when compared at the same (AA and AFL) levels. No mention in there whatsoever.

The amount of delusion that abounds is astounding.

The fact that one guy is a level ahead doesn't mean much prospect wise. It just means that he is a year ahead of schedule. It's not like Alonso got owned in AA. If he continues on the same track, he should put up great numbers in AAA, just like Smoak did in AA last year.

I think Doug's point is not who is the better prospect, but how can you look at what Alonso did, and look at what Smoak did, and consider Smoak a top 20 prospect and not even include Alonso? They are very similar, except one got injured and had to be held back a half a season.

[TheNext44]

One question for the prospect experts:

Has there ever been a prospect that has been on nearly everyone else's top 50 list, that did not even make another's top 100 list? Just curious, and if so, would love to see who it was.

[REDblooded]

The great thing is that these lists have absolutely ZERO bearing on how a player turns out... It's up to Alonso to put up and shut up the critics... Only downside is the possibility that other organizations buy into hype and it effects potential trade value...

[klw]

Doug- It is clear that you feel that Alonso should be ranked on the list. Taking Alonso out of the equation, do you feel that Smoak is ranked too high? If so, where roughly would you slot him? Where would you rank Alonso at this point?

[REDblooded]

If it was me, smoak would be somewhere in the 30's with Alonso landing somewhere in the 40's... I really don't see Brett Wallace being a better baseball player than either one, or probably Vitters for that matter... Smoak and Alonso definitely shouldn't be more than 10 spots apart though.

I just think it's absurd that the way Alonso started the season, consistently landing aboard BA's hot list, that he was punished so much for the hamate break...

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by klw

Doug- It is clear that you feel that Alonso should be ranked on the list. Taking Alonso out of the equation, do you feel that Smoak is ranked too high? If so, where roughly would you slot him? Where would you rank Alonso at this point?

I think Smoak is ranked correctly. I would also rank Alonso in the 15-20 range.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by REDblooded

I just think it's absurd that the way Alonso started the season, consistently landing aboard BA's hot list, that he was punished so much for the hamate break...

Not to mention that at midseason he was #15 on their list.

[HokieRed]

To me this just indicates once again how utterly without value these lists are. Their only purpose, as I see it, is to give guys like us something to talk about in the offseason.

[REDblooded]

Originally Posted by HokieRed

To me this just indicates once again how utterly without value these lists are. Their only purpose, as I see it, is to give guys like us something to talk about in the offseason.

wrong... to make money for the sites that post them...